Criora

Timor-Leste

Region Asia Subregion South-Eastern Asia Income Lower middle income ISO TLS

Timor-Leste sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

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Standing risk

How risky is Timor-Leste, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
47 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Very low
    20 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    43 / 100
    ▼ -1.9 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    39 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    73 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    62 / 100
    ▼ -0.5 5y
Climate futures

Timor-Leste: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Timor-Leste is projected to warm +2.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +13 mm.

Temperature

+2.5 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.7 °C → +2.5 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.4 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+13 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-3 mm → +13 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-32 mm → -10 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.81 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.21 m → +0.59 m

Water stress

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

River flooding

1.7%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0% → 1.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0% → 1.7%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Timor-Leste most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Very low
0.0 / 10
Peers

Timor-Leste in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
South-Eastern Asia
#4 of 11median 51
  1. 1SingaporeLow 24
  2. 2BruneiLow 39
  3. 3MalaysiaMedium 45
  4. 4Timor-LesteMedium 47
  5. 5ThailandMedium 50
  6. 6VietnamMedium 51
  7. 7LaosMedium 52
  8. 8IndonesiaMedium 54
  9. 9CambodiaMedium 55
  10. 10PhilippinesMedium 56
region
Asia
#25 of 48median 47
  1. 21MalaysiaMedium 45
  2. 22MongoliaMedium 45
  3. 23Sri LankaMedium 46
  4. 24KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  5. 25Timor-LesteMedium 47
  6. 26AzerbaijanMedium 49
  7. 27TurkeyMedium 49
  8. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
  9. 29ThailandMedium 50
  10. 30VietnamMedium 51
income group
Lower middle income
#21 of 53median 49
  1. 17MoldovaMedium 46
  2. 18eSwatiniMedium 46
  3. 19Marshall Is.Medium 47
  4. 20MicronesiaMedium 47
  5. 21Timor-LesteMedium 47
  6. 22MoroccoMedium 48
  7. 23LesothoMedium 48
  8. 24UkraineMedium 48
  9. 25Solomon Is.Medium 48
  10. 26VanuatuMedium 48

Put two countries head to head

Compare Timor-Leste against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Timor-Leste?
Timor-Leste sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 47 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Timor-Leste's risk?
Timor-Leste's highest pressures are governance (73, high) and adaptation (62). Its strongest area is climate (20).
How might Timor-Leste's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 7% of Timor-Leste's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Timor-Leste warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Timor-Leste is on track to warm by +2.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +13 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Timor-Leste's coast?
Coastal sea level along Timor-Leste is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Timor-Leste?
The share of Timor-Leste under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Timor-Leste?
The share of Timor-Leste exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 1.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Timor-Leste's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.