+2.4 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.6 °C → +2.4 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.2 °C → +1.6 °C
Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Sri Lanka Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Southern Asia
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- LKA
Sri Lanka: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Sri Lanka, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 47 / 100
5y
- 29 Climate Low
- 42 Nature -0.6 Medium
- 34 Social Low
- 69 Governance High
- 62 Adaptation +0.7 High
Which hazards threaten Sri Lanka most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 1.9FloodVery low
- 3.6DRR capacityLow
Sri Lanka in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
3
Southern Asia
#3 of 9 · median 5624
Asia
#24 of 48 · median 4719
Lower middle income
#19 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Sri Lanka: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Sri Lanka is projected to warm +2.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +216 mm.
+216 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +126 mm → +216 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +85 mm → +158 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
1.4%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 1.4% → 1.4%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 1.4% → 1.4%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 1.4% today.
7.1%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 5.8% → 7.1%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.6% → 0.7%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.7% today.
Sea level
Sri Lanka: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.81 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.20 m → +0.57 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Coastal Protection Needed | 93.6 % coast | 91.7 |
Cooling Degree Days | 5668 degree days | 77.6 |
Energy Imports | 60.0 % of energy use | 73.6 |
Land Surface Temperature | 29.7 deg C change | 69.9 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 35.5 % population | 64.5 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 53.9 % of total | 52.0 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 49.2 % of total | 50.8 |
Renewable Energy Share | 48.8 % of total energy | 49.3 |
Coal Electricity Share | 34.6 % of total | 35.9 |
Flood Risk | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 20.0 ug/m3 | 18.8 |
Heat Index | 19.1 index | 14.0 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.14 kt CO2e per capita | 3.4 |
Energy Intensity | 1.67 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 3.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 1.00 metric tons | 3.1 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 474 kg oil eq per capita | 2.4 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Protected Areas | 3.40 % of land | 96.6 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.96 0-1 | 96.3 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.95 0-1 | 95.2 |
Dam Capacity | 0.93 0-1 | 93.4 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.89 0-1 | 88.5 |
Rural Population | 0.87 0-1 | 87.1 |
Paved Roads | 0.86 0-1 | 85.8 |
Tsunami Risk | 8.00 0-10 | 80.0 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.78 0-1 | 78.2 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.74 0-1 | 74.1 |
Food Production Index | 99.2 index | 73.5 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 24.5 % of internal resources | 72.1 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.67 0-1 | 67.2 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.67 0-1 | 66.7 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Forest Area | 34.1 % of land | 64.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.60 0-1 | 60.0 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.54 0-1 | 53.6 |
Agricultural Land | 45.5 % of land | 53.5 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.49 0-1 | 49.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.47 0-1 | 47.5 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.47 0-1 | 47.1 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.46 0-1 | 46.3 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.41 0-1 | 41.3 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.39 0-1 | 38.6 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.37 0-1 | 36.9 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.37 0-1 | 36.7 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.35 0-1 | 35.3 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.30 0-1 | 30.3 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.26 0-1 | 25.9 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.24 0-1 | 24.3 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.24 0-1 | 24.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.23 0-1 | 23.1 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 8.12 % of GDP | 22.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.21 0-1 | 21.0 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.20 0-1 | 19.9 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 30.0 count | 15.7 |
Projected Population Change | 0.13 0-1 | 13.0 |
Urban Concentration | 0.13 0-1 | 12.9 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.07 0-1 | 7.5 |
Water Stress | 90.8 % | 2.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.06 % of GNI | 0.3 |
Tree Cover Loss | 13296 hectares | 0.2 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.06 % of GNI | 0.1 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Hospital Beds | 4.02 per 1,000 | 69.5 |
Primary School Enrollment | 95.9 % gross | 68.0 |
Education Expenditure | 8.68 % of govt | 66.5 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 45.3 ratio F/M | 61.0 |
GDP Growth | -2.33 % annual | 57.1 |
Safe Drinking Water | 47.1 % population | 56.3 |
Internet Users | 51.2 % population | 54.9 |
Net Migration | -28011 persons | 54.1 |
Labor Participation | 54.9 % (15+) | 52.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 37.7 0-100 | 47.9 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 0.65 % annual | 40.5 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.40 % | 38.6 |
Aid Dependency | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
Overweight Adults | 38.8 % adults | 35.1 |
Development and Deprivation | 3.20 0-10 | 32.0 |
Aging Population | 11.7 % population | 29.2 |
Life Expectancy | 77.5 years | 27.9 |
Uprooted People | 2.50 0-10 | 25.0 |
Fertility Rate | 1.97 births per woman | 23.2 |
Children Under 5 | 2.20 0-10 | 22.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 14.3 % population | 22.0 |
Food Security | 2.10 0-10 | 21.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.02 ratio | 17.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 6.00 % | 16.8 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.38 0-100 | 16.8 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 9.47 % | 12.8 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 92.0 % | 11.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 6.10 per 1,000 | 4.1 |
Health Conditions | 0.40 0-10 | 4.0 |
Undernourishment | 4.10 % population | 3.3 |
Population Density | 359 people/km2 | 1.9 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 266 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 2483 count | 99.7 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.11 % of GDP | 98.8 |
Women in Parliament | 5.33 % seats | 91.3 |
Legal Rights Strength | 2.00 0-12 | 83.3 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Political Stability | -0.51 -2.5 to +2.5 | 60.2 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.51 -2.5 to +2.5 | 60.2 |
Control of Corruption | -0.38 -2.5 to +2.5 | 57.7 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.25 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.0 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.23 -2.5 to +2.5 | 54.6 |
Rule of Law | -0.09 -2.5 to +2.5 | 51.8 |
Healthcare Access | 4.10 0-10 | 41.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 3.60 0-10 | 36.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 2.80 0-10 | 28.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 2.40 0-10 | 24.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.06 0-1 | 94.3 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.14 0-1 | 86.3 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.34 0-1 | 66.3 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.40 0-1 | 59.6 |
Doing Business Score | 0.42 0-1 | 57.6 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.43 0-1 | 56.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.48 0-1 | 51.8 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.49 0-1 | 50.9 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.57 0-1 | 42.5 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Sri Lanka →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Sri Lanka.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 47 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Sri Lanka's risk?
Sri Lanka's highest pressures are governance (69, high) and adaptation (62). Its strongest area is climate (29).
How might Sri Lanka's climate change by 2080?
Sri Lanka's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Sri Lanka warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Sri Lanka is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +216 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Sri Lanka's coast?
Coastal sea level along Sri Lanka is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Sri Lanka?
The share of Sri Lanka under high water stress is projected to move from 1.4% today to 1.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Sri Lanka?
The share of Sri Lanka exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.7% today to 7.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Sri Lanka's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.