Criora

Sri Lanka

Region Asia Subregion Southern Asia Income Lower middle income ISO LKA

Sri Lanka sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Sri Lanka, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
46 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    29 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    42 / 100
    ▼ -0.6 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    27 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    72 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    62 / 100
    ▲ + 0.7 5y
Climate futures

Sri Lanka: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Sri Lanka is projected to warm +2.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +216 mm.

Temperature

+2.4 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.6 °C → +2.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.2 °C → +1.6 °C

Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+216 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+126 mm → +216 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+85 mm → +158 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Sri Lanka: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.81 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.20 m → +0.57 m

Water stress

1.4%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.4% → 1.4%
Current path SSP3-7.0
1.4% → 1.4%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 1.4% today.

River flooding

7.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
5.8% → 7.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.6% → 0.7%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.7% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Sri Lanka.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Sri Lanka most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Very low
1.9 / 10
DRR capacity
High
6.7 / 10
Peers

Sri Lanka in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Asia
#3 of 9median 56
  1. 1MaldivesMedium 41
  2. 2BhutanMedium 41
  3. 3Sri LankaMedium 46
  4. 4NepalMedium 53
  5. 5IranMedium 56
  6. 6IndiaMedium 57
  7. 7BangladeshHigh 64
  8. 8PakistanHigh 64
  9. 9AfghanistanHigh 64
region
Asia
#23 of 48median 47
  1. 19KuwaitMedium 44
  2. 20KazakhstanMedium 45
  3. 21MalaysiaMedium 45
  4. 22MongoliaMedium 45
  5. 23Sri LankaMedium 46
  6. 24KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  7. 25Timor-LesteMedium 47
  8. 26AzerbaijanMedium 49
  9. 27TurkeyMedium 49
  10. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
income group
Lower middle income
#16 of 53median 49
  1. 12AlbaniaMedium 45
  2. 13MongoliaMedium 45
  3. 14TongaMedium 46
  4. 15KiribatiMedium 46
  5. 16Sri LankaMedium 46
  6. 17MoldovaMedium 46
  7. 18eSwatiniMedium 46
  8. 19Marshall Is.Medium 47
  9. 20MicronesiaMedium 47
  10. 21Timor-LesteMedium 47

Put two countries head to head

Compare Sri Lanka against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Sri Lanka?
Sri Lanka sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 46 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Sri Lanka's risk?
Sri Lanka's highest pressures are governance (72, high) and adaptation (62). Its strongest area is social (27).
How might Sri Lanka's climate change by 2080?
Sri Lanka's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Sri Lanka warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Sri Lanka is on track to warm by +2.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +216 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.6 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Sri Lanka's coast?
Coastal sea level along Sri Lanka is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Sri Lanka?
The share of Sri Lanka under high water stress is projected to move from 1.4% today to 1.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Sri Lanka?
The share of Sri Lanka exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.7% today to 7.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Sri Lanka's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.