What drives Bangladesh's risk?

Bangladesh's highest pressures are climate (72, high) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is social (47).

How might Bangladesh's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 62% of Bangladesh's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Bangladesh warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Bangladesh is on track to warm by +2.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +420 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Bangladesh's coast?

Coastal sea level along Bangladesh is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Bangladesh?

The share of Bangladesh under high water stress is projected to move from 49% today to 49% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Bangladesh?

The share of Bangladesh exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 15% today to 34% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Bangladesh's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Bangladesh Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Southern Asia
Income: Low income
ISO: BGD

Bangladesh: high climate pressure, led by flood exposure, rising over five years.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Bangladesh, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

High 64 / 100

72 Climate High
59 Nature +3.9 Medium
47 Social Medium
70 Governance High
72 Adaptation -0.8 High

Which hazards threaten Bangladesh most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

9.9FloodCritical
1.6DRR capacityVery low

Bangladesh in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Asia

#7 of 9 · median 56

Asia

#44 of 48 · median 47

Low income

#34 of 37 · median 55

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Bangladesh: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Bangladesh is projected to warm +2.8 °C, with annual rainfall changing +420 mm.

+2.8 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.6 °C → +2.8 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.2 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.0 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+420 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +193 mm → +420 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +170 mm → +256 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

49%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 49% → 49%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 49% → 49%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 49% today.

34%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 22% → 34%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 16% → 23%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 15% today.

Sea level

Bangladesh: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 5 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.22 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.19 m → +0.54 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	100 % coast	2020	100.0	+15.7	+9.7
Flood Risk	9.90 0-10	2026	99.0	+47.0	+33.5
Renewable Electricity Share	1.50 % of total	2021	98.5	+23.4	+15.5
Fossil Fuel Consumption	83.1 % of total	2022	82.4	+9.7	-4.4
Heat Index	103 index	2020	75.5	+75.5	+73.4
Renewable Energy Share	25.0 % of total energy	2021	74.0	-1.4	-16.6
Energy Imports	44.3 % of energy use	2022	72.4	+1.3	+1.7
Access to Clean Fuels	28.0 % population	2022	72.0	+61.8	+63.4
Land Surface Temperature	27.6 deg C change	2021	65.6	+0.9	-1.9
Cooling Degree Days	4714 degree days	2020	64.5	+12.7	+13.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	42.4 ug/m3	2020	46.7	+27.5	+20.5
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.01 index	2021	36.4	-10.0	+0.0
Coal Electricity Share	5.53 % of total	2022	5.8	-10.9	-26.1
Energy Intensity	1.93 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	4.8	-11.8	-13.6
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.17 kt CO2e per capita	2020	3.9	-3.1	-2.2
Methane Emissions Per Capita	0.53 kt CO2e per capita	2020	3.7	-4.4	-2.5
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.51 metric tons	2020	1.5	-6.2	-9.4
Energy Use Per Capita	297 kg oil eq per capita	2022	1.4	-6.9	-7.5
Heating Degree Days	116 degree days	2020	0.8	-0.6	-6.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+69.7	+78.8
Disaster Preparedness	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+70.0	+75.0
Dam Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	99.0	+5.7	+5.4
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.98 0-1	2023	97.9	+11.4	+20.1
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.96 0-1	2023	96.1	+11.9	+14.3
Protected Areas	5.90 % of land	2023	94.1	+5.2	+0.9
Agricultural Capacity	0.92 0-1	2023	91.9	+0.1	+3.4
Water Dependency Ratio	0.91 0-1	2023	91.4	+84.5	+84.4
Paved Roads	0.91 0-1	2023	91.2	+36.2	+64.5
Earthquake Risk	8.90 0-10	2026	89.0	+54.0	+21.5
Agricultural Land	72.4 % of land	2022	87.2	+39.9	+46.9
Projected Warm Period Change	0.85 0-1	2023	85.4	+17.7	+20.1
Forest Area	14.5 % of land	2022	84.7	+18.4	-0.2
Tsunami Risk	8.10 0-10	2026	81.0	+70.0	+56.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.80 0-1	2023	80.2	+3.9	0.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.78 0-1	2023	78.3	+37.3	+33.4
Freshwater Withdrawal	34.2 % of internal resources	2021	76.2	+25.9	+0.6
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.70 0-1	2023	69.8	+30.5	+36.6
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.69 0-1	2023	69.2	+7.1	+8.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+0.9	+0.9
Rural Population	0.64 0-1	2023	64.2	+21.6	+19.6
Dependency Ratio	0.61 0-1	2023	61.2	+54.4	+57.3
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.55 0-1	2023	54.7	+41.2	+38.7
Slum Population	0.52 0-1	2023	52.3	+35.8	+33.5
Population Below 5m	0.51 0-1	2023	50.6	+35.9	+32.8
Age Dependency Ratio	0.50 0-1	2023	50.5	-2.3	+4.9
Food Production Index	125 index	2022	49.1	-18.0	-10.9
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.48 0-1	2023	48.2	-9.4	-7.1
Energy Import Dependency	0.44 0-1	2023	44.3	+18.6	+23.6
Child Malnutrition	0.44 0-1	2023	44.2	+30.4	+26.4
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	43.4	-0.3	-0.3
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.41 0-1	2023	41.5	+21.1	+13.6
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.41 0-1	2023	40.6	+1.0	+13.0
Urban Concentration	0.36 0-1	2023	35.8	-21.6	-19.6
Ecological Footprint	0.35 0-1	2023	35.2	+12.6	+10.3
Agriculture GDP Share	11.0 % of GDP	2023	30.6	+11.7	+8.5
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.30 0-1	2023	30.4	-6.9	-6.3
Projected Groundwater Change	0.30 0-1	2023	30.2	+4.0	+1.6
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.29 0-1	2023	29.3	+21.9	+1.8
Food Import Dependency	0.26 0-1	2023	26.0	+4.3	+6.6
Projected Population Change	0.22 0-1	2023	22.3	0.0	-1.3
Natural Capital Dependency	0.21 0-1	2023	20.9	-0.9	-4.9
Threatened Mammal Species	37.0 count	2018	19.4	+14.2	+12.6
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.03 0-1	2023	2.6	-15.8	-9.5
Natural Resource Depletion	0.54 % of GNI	2021	0.9	-1.2	-1.7
Tree Cover Loss	17587 hectares	2021	0.6	+0.5	+0.6
Electricity Access	0.01 0-1	2023	0.5	+0.5	+0.5
Forest Depletion	0.07 % of GNI	2021	0.4	+0.3	+0.4
Water Stress	5.72 %	2021	0.1	-0.2	-1.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Recent Shocks	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+99.0	+97.0
Hospital Beds	0.88 per 1,000	2019	94.4	+13.5	+10.3
Uprooted People	8.20 0-10	2026	82.0	+23.0	+28.5
Sanitation Access	31.0 % population	2022	70.9	+30.9	+36.6
Internet Users	44.5 % population	2023	62.4	+41.5	+46.0
Education Expenditure	10.7 % of govt	2023	58.8	+11.7	+7.4
Development and Deprivation	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+27.0	+31.5
Gender Labor Ratio	53.9 ratio F/M	2023	52.1	+25.1	+12.3
GDP Growth	5.78 % annual	2023	44.3	-4.6	-3.5
Safe Drinking Water	59.1 % population	2022	43.6	+22.1	+13.4
Adult Literacy Rate	76.0 %	2021	38.1	+31.6	+28.7
Labor Participation	64.5 % (15+)	2023	37.2	+7.1	+6.0
Net Migration	-549918 persons	2023	36.4	-18.6	-18.5
Aid Dependency	3.60 0-10	2026	36.0	+11.0	+15.0
Children Under 5	3.60 0-10	2026	36.0	+25.0	+23.0
Communicable Disease Deaths	22.6 %	2019	33.4	+17.3	+19.2
Life Expectancy	74.7 years	2023	32.3	-7.2	-0.9
Primary School Enrollment	112 % gross	2023	31.5	-10.5	-9.5
Income Share Bottom 20%	8.20 %	2022	30.6	-13.8	0.0
ESG Performance Score	2.20 0-100	2018	30.6	+5.6	+4.3
Gini Coefficient	33.4 0-100	2022	30.3	-0.4	+6.4
Poverty Rate (National)	18.7 % population	2022	29.3	-3.2	+9.1
Food Security	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+11.0	+11.0
Fertility Rate	2.16 births per woman	2023	26.6	+3.3	+3.4
Under-5 Mortality Rate	30.6 per 1,000	2023	25.7	+13.5	+15.2
Overweight Adults	27.0 % adults	2022	20.3	-35.7	-34.4
Health Conditions	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	+12.0	+16.0
Undernourishment	11.9 % population	2022	19.3	+13.5	+13.7
Aging Population	6.32 % population	2023	13.7	-2.7	-0.1
Unmet Contraception Need	10.0 %	2022	13.1	-34.3	-4.9
Unemployment Rate	4.45 %	2023	12.4	-1.8	+0.8
School Gender Parity	1.14 ratio	2021	9.5	-31.5	-31.8
Population Density	1301 people/km2	2022	7.0	+6.5	+6.4
Access to Electricity	99.5 % population	2023	0.6	+0.6	+0.6

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	74.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	7056 count	2022	99.2	-0.7	-0.6
Control of Corruption	-1.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	72.4	+16.8	+14.1
INFORM Governance Index	7.00 0-10	2026	70.0	+14.0	+12.5
Regulatory Quality	-0.91 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	68.3	+15.5	+13.7
Political Stability	-0.91 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	68.2	+18.4	+12.6
Women in Parliament	20.9 % seats	2023	65.9	+7.7	-3.3
Voice and Accountability	-0.75 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	65.1	+16.2	-0.4
Government Effectiveness	-0.70 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	63.9	+12.2	+13.2
Rule of Law	-0.50 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.1	+7.1	+7.0
Legal Rights Strength	5.00 0-12	2019	58.3	+8.3	+8.3
Healthcare Access	4.90 0-10	2026	49.0	+12.0	+16.0
Physical Infrastructure	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	+10.0	+10.5
Communication Infrastructure	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	+14.0	+19.5
Disaster Risk Reduction	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-25.5	-20.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.00 0-1	2023	99.8	+5.1	+5.5
Education (Readiness)	0.14 0-1	2023	85.8	+12.8	+12.9
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.17 0-1	2023	83.3	+19.0	+15.5
Doing Business Score	0.21 0-1	2023	79.3	+20.9	+28.2
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.32 0-1	2023	67.6	+15.0	+14.0
ICT Infrastructure	0.40 0-1	2023	59.9	+12.2	+14.4
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.41 0-1	2023	59.0	+7.0	+7.2
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.41 0-1	2023	58.6	+15.5	+10.3
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.66 0-1	2023	33.6	-17.9	-9.3

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Bangladesh?
Bangladesh: high climate pressure, led by flood exposure, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 64 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Bangladesh's risk?
Bangladesh's highest pressures are climate (72, high) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is social (47).
How might Bangladesh's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 62% of Bangladesh's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Bangladesh warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Bangladesh is on track to warm by +2.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +420 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Bangladesh's coast?
Coastal sea level along Bangladesh is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Bangladesh?
The share of Bangladesh under high water stress is projected to move from 49% today to 49% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Bangladesh?
The share of Bangladesh exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 15% today to 34% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Bangladesh's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.