Iran: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 56 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Iran's risk?

Iran's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (63). Its strongest area is social (32).

How might Iran's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 12% of Iran's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 67 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Iran warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Iran is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +8 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Iran's coast?

Coastal sea level along Iran is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.40 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Iran?

The share of Iran under high water stress is projected to move from 66% today to 72% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Iran?

The share of Iran exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Iran's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Iran Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Southern Asia
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: IRN

Iran: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, rising over five years.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Iran, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 56 / 100

59 Climate Medium
50 Nature +0.5 Medium
32 Social Low
76 Governance High
63 Adaptation +3.8 High

Which hazards threaten Iran most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

7.3FloodHigh

Iran in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Asia

#5 of 9 · median 56

Asia

#40 of 48 · median 47

Upper middle income

#52 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Iran: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Iran is projected to warm +4.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +8 mm.

+4.3 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.1 °C → +4.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.5 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +5.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+8 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +10 mm → +8 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +6 mm → +3 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

72%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 71% → 72%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 72% → 73%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 66% today.

0.4%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 1.1% → 0.4%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 1.2% → 1.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.8% today.

Sea level

Iran: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.27 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.16 m → +0.40 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	0.90 % of total energy	2021	99.1	+23.7	+8.5
Fossil Fuel Consumption	98.8 % of total	2022	98.7	+26.0	+11.9
Renewable Electricity Share	4.24 % of total	2021	95.8	+20.7	+12.8
Coastal Protection Needed	89.2 % coast	2020	85.9	+1.6	-4.4
Land Surface Temperature	36.1 deg C change	2021	83.1	+18.4	+15.6
Flood Risk	7.30 0-10	2026	73.0	+21.0	+7.5
Energy Imports	-32.5 % of energy use	2022	66.2	-4.9	-4.5
Energy Intensity	9.32 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	46.7	+30.1	+28.3
Cooling Degree Days	2971 degree days	2020	40.7	-11.1	-10.3
PM2.5 Air Pollution	32.3 ug/m3	2020	34.1	+14.9	+7.9
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	7.03 metric tons	2020	22.3	+14.6	+11.4
Heating Degree Days	2971 degree days	2020	20.4	+18.9	+12.8
Energy Use Per Capita	3266 kg oil eq per capita	2022	19.2	+10.9	+10.3
Heat Index	15.1 index	2020	11.1	+11.0	+9.0
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.45 kt CO2e per capita	2020	10.6	+3.6	+4.5
Access to Clean Fuels	95.8 % population	2022	4.2	-6.0	-4.5
Coal Electricity Share	0.19 % of total	2022	0.2	-16.5	-31.7
Drought Index (SPEI)	-2.84 index	2021	0.0	-46.4	-36.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Earthquake Risk	9.30 0-10	2026	93.0	+58.0	+25.5
Forest Area	6.64 % of land	2022	93.0	+26.7	+8.1
Protected Areas	7.70 % of land	2023	92.2	+3.3	-1.0
Agricultural Capacity	0.91 0-1	2023	91.0	-0.8	+2.5
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.89 0-1	2023	89.5	+13.2	+9.3
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.89 0-1	2023	88.9	+4.7	+7.1
Food Production Index	83.9 index	2022	88.0	+20.9	+28.0
Dam Capacity	0.87 0-1	2023	87.5	-5.8	-6.1
Freshwater Withdrawal	72.3 % of internal resources	2021	85.5	+35.2	+9.9
Urban Concentration	0.75 0-1	2023	75.5	+18.1	+20.1
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.71 0-1	2023	70.8	-15.7	-7.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+4.6	+5.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.9	+0.1	+0.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.62 0-1	2023	62.0	+54.5	+34.5
Projected Warm Period Change	0.60 0-1	2023	60.4	-7.4	-4.9
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.56 0-1	2023	56.5	-1.1	+1.2
Tsunami Risk	5.50 0-10	2026	55.0	+44.0	+30.0
Food Import Dependency	0.47 0-1	2023	46.8	+25.1	+27.3
Projected Hydropower Change	0.46 0-1	2023	45.9	+2.2	+2.2
Protected Biome Areas	0.45 0-1	2023	45.3	+4.3	+0.4
Age Dependency Ratio	0.41 0-1	2023	40.5	-12.3	-5.1
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.36 0-1	2023	36.1	-1.1	-0.6
Agriculture GDP Share	12.8 % of GDP	2023	35.7	+16.8	+13.6
Agricultural Land	29.0 % of land	2022	34.0	-13.3	-6.3
Natural Capital Dependency	0.32 0-1	2023	31.9	+10.1	+6.1
Paved Roads	0.26 0-1	2023	25.9	-29.1	-0.9
Rural Population	0.25 0-1	2023	24.5	-18.1	-20.1
Ecological Footprint	0.24 0-1	2023	24.5	+1.9	-0.4
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.21 0-1	2023	21.2	-9.1	0.0
Projected Groundwater Change	0.21 0-1	2023	20.6	-5.6	-8.0
Projected Population Change	0.20 0-1	2023	19.7	-2.6	-3.9
Child Malnutrition	0.18 0-1	2023	17.8	+4.0	0.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.12 0-1	2023	12.1	-6.3	0.0
Natural Resource Depletion	6.70 % of GNI	2021	11.7	+9.6	+9.1
Threatened Mammal Species	18.0 count	2018	9.4	+4.2	+2.6
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.07 0-1	2023	7.1	-6.4	-8.9
Water Dependency Ratio	0.07 0-1	2023	6.8	-0.1	-0.2
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.06 0-1	2023	5.9	-14.5	-22.0
Population Below 5m	0.06 0-1	2023	5.6	-9.2	-12.2
Water Stress	81.3 %	2021	2.1	+1.8	+0.7
Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	1.4	-5.4	-2.5
Tree Cover Loss	21.0 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-39.6	-27.6
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-20.7
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Shared Prosperity Growth	-0.98 % annual	2022	86.9	+27.1	+30.1
Hospital Beds	1.86 per 1,000	2019	86.7	+5.8	+2.5
Gender Labor Ratio	20.4 ratio F/M	2023	86.6	+59.6	+46.8
Uprooted People	8.60 0-10	2026	86.0	+27.0	+32.5
Labor Participation	44.2 % (15+)	2023	68.3	+38.2	+37.1
Net Migration	262044 persons	2023	64.0	+9.0	+9.1
Overweight Adults	60.4 % adults	2022	62.3	+6.3	+7.6
Primary School Enrollment	104 % gross	2020	49.8	-6.1	-5.1
School Gender Parity	1.03 ratio	2020	46.8	-10.1	-9.6
GDP Growth	5.04 % annual	2023	45.5	-3.4	-2.3
Education Expenditure	18.8 % of govt	2022	42.1	-22.8	-26.3
Income Share Bottom 20%	7.00 %	2023	41.0	-24.6	+7.4
Gini Coefficient	35.9 0-100	2023	32.6	-18.7	+4.7
Life Expectancy	77.7 years	2023	27.3	-12.2	-5.9
Unemployment Rate	9.04 %	2023	25.5	+11.3	+13.9
Food Security	2.30 0-10	2026	23.0	+5.0	+5.0
Internet Users	79.6 % population	2023	22.9	+2.0	+6.4
Development and Deprivation	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	-10.0	-5.5
Aging Population	7.92 % population	2023	18.2	+1.8	+4.4
Fertility Rate	1.70 births per woman	2023	18.0	-5.3	-5.2
ESG Performance Score	2.40 0-100	2018	15.8	-9.2	-10.6
Adult Literacy Rate	89.0 %	2022	15.2	-6.1	+6.9
Communicable Disease Deaths	8.09 %	2019	10.6	-5.5	-3.6
Children Under 5	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-1.0	-3.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	11.8 per 1,000	2023	9.2	-3.0	-1.3
Undernourishment	6.50 % population	2022	8.2	+2.4	+2.6
Safe Drinking Water	94.2 % population	2022	6.2	-15.3	-24.0
Recent Shocks	0.40 0-10	2026	4.0	+3.0	+1.0
Aid Dependency	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-24.0	-20.0
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-3.0
Population Density	55.2 people/km2	2022	0.3	-0.2	-0.3
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	10210 count	2021	99.3	-0.7	-0.7
Scientific Articles	60940 count	2022	93.2	-6.7	-6.6
Women in Parliament	5.59 % seats	2023	90.9	+32.7	+21.7
R&D Expenditure	0.73 % of GDP	2021	88.1	+1.3	-6.4
Political Stability	-1.69 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	83.9	+34.1	+28.3
Regulatory Quality	-1.69 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	83.7	+31.0	+29.1
Legal Rights Strength	2.00 0-12	2019	83.3	+33.3	+33.3
Voice and Accountability	-1.45 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	79.1	+30.2	+13.6
Control of Corruption	-1.23 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	74.6	+19.0	+16.3
Rule of Law	-1.06 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	71.2	+18.3	+18.1
INFORM Governance Index	7.10 0-10	2026	71.0	+15.0	+13.5
Government Effectiveness	-1.02 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	70.4	+18.7	+19.7
Healthcare Access	3.90 0-10	2026	39.0	+2.0	+6.0
Physical Infrastructure	3.50 0-10	2026	35.0	+5.0	+5.5
Communication Infrastructure	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	-7.0	-1.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.14 0-1	2023	85.8	+21.5	+18.0
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.17 0-1	2023	83.0	+30.4	+29.5
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.28 0-1	2023	72.2	+29.1	+23.9
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.30 0-1	2023	69.9	+18.0	+18.1
Education (Readiness)	0.36 0-1	2023	63.7	-9.3	-9.2
Doing Business Score	0.39 0-1	2023	60.6	+2.2	+9.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.48 0-1	2023	52.2	+0.7	+9.3
ICT Infrastructure	0.55 0-1	2023	45.2	-2.5	-0.3
Innovation (Readiness)	0.55 0-1	2023	44.8	-49.9	-49.5

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

Score a site in Iran →

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Iran.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

orpinpoint it on the map →

Map of Iran — Pinpoint on the map Open the map

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Iran?
Iran: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, rising over five years. Its overall risk score is 56 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Iran's risk?
Iran's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (63). Its strongest area is social (32).
How might Iran's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 12% of Iran's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 67 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Iran warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Iran is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +8 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Iran's coast?
Coastal sea level along Iran is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.40 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Iran?
The share of Iran under high water stress is projected to move from 66% today to 72% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Iran?
The share of Iran exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.4% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Iran's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.