Climate risk in Karaj
Alborz Province, Iran · 1.4M people in the urban area
What threatens Karaj most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Iran
An earthquake's shaking at Karaj can reach 3.68 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Tehran: 4.06 m/s².
Karaj's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Karaj is projected to have the climate that Ashgabat (Turkmenistan) has today.
+1.9°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.7°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.2°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+6%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Karaj would have the climate that Ashgabat (Turkmenistan) has today.
Share this comparison
How close the match is: 1.3 σ to the climate of Ashgabat today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Karaj stands out
+2.5°C
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions
Tehran: +2.5°C.
Higher than in 83% of the world's 630 large cities
51 days
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
Tehran: 3 days.
Higher than in 82% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Karaj
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Karaj | Among large cities | In Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 51 days | Among large cities: above 82% | In Iran: 3 of 6 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 66 days | Among large cities: above 39% | In Iran: 2 of 6 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 39.6°C | Among large cities: above 75% | In Iran: 3 of 6 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.5°C | Among large cities: above 83% | In Iran: 3 of 6 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 3.68 m/s² | Among large cities: above 93% | In Iran: 2 of 6 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Karaj on the live map
See the warming around Karaj on the live map
+2.5°C © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
Cite this page
In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Karaj, Iran: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/IRN/karaj BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_IRN_karaj_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Karaj, Iran: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/IRN/karaj},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
Embed on your site
<iframe src="https://criora.com/embed/atlas/IRN/karaj" title="Karaj, Iran: climate risk, by Criora" width="100%" height="140" loading="lazy" style="max-width:420px;border:0"></iframe> <p><a href="https://criora.com/atlas/IRN/karaj?ref=embed" rel="nofollow">Source: Criora</a></p>
Free, no account needed. The widget has no script and shows the figures of this page. Keep its link to the source.