Climate risk in Ashgabat
Ashgabat, Turkmenistan · 1M people in the urban area
What threatens Ashgabat most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Turkmenistan
An earthquake's shaking at Ashgabat can reach 3.82 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Mashhad: 3.57 m/s².
Ashgabat's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Ashgabat's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Sanliurfa (Turkey).
+1.8°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.5°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+13%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Ashgabat would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 3.7 σ away. How close the match is: 4.8 σ to the climate of Sanliurfa today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Ashgabat stands out
97 days
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
Mashhad: 8 days.
Higher than in 92% of the world's 630 large cities
42.9°C
Hottest day of 2025
Mashhad: 36.1°C.
Higher than in 91% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Ashgabat
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Ashgabat | Among large cities | In Turkmenistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 97 days | Among large cities: above 92% | |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 119 days | Among large cities: above 56% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 42.9°C | Among large cities: above 91% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.4°C | Among large cities: above 79% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 3.82 m/s² | Among large cities: above 95% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Ashgabat on the live map
See the hot days around Ashgabat on the live map
97 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Turkmenistan
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Ashgabat, Turkmenistan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/TKM/ashgabat BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_TKM_ashgabat_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Ashgabat, Turkmenistan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/TKM/ashgabat},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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