Climate risk in Baku
Baki, Azerbaijan · 2.1M people in the urban area
What threatens Baku most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Azerbaijan
Baku is projected to be +2.7°C warmer by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Tabriz: +2.6°C.
Baku's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Baku's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Split (Croatia).
+1.5°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.2°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+1%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Baku would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 2.3 σ away. How close the match is: 11.7 σ to the climate of Split today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Baku stands out
2.65 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Tabriz: 3.43 m/s².
Higher than in 86% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Baku
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Baku | Among large cities | In Azerbaijan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 83 days | Among large cities: above 42% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 32.3°C | Among large cities: above 17% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.7°C | Among large cities: above 90% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 3 days | Among large cities: above 24% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.65 m/s² | Among large cities: above 86% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Baku on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Baku on the live map
2.65 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Azerbaijan
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Baku, Azerbaijan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/AZE/baku BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_AZE_baku_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Baku, Azerbaijan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/AZE/baku},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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