Climate risk in Split
Split-Dalmatia, Croatia · 214.7K people in the urban area
What threatens Split most
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- River flood
- 0.35 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Croatia
A 100-year river flood would stand 0.35 m deep in the centre of Split.
Zagreb: Dry at the city centre point.
Split's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Split's climate comes closest to that of İskenderun (Turkey) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. Iran: the place on the map
+1.7°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.5°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.4°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-5%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is İskenderun (Turkey), and only in part.
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How close the match is: 2.4 σ to the climate of İskenderun today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Split stands out
2.45 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Zagreb: 2.89 m/s².
Higher than in 85% of the world's 627 large cities
16 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025
Zagreb: 9 days.
Higher than in 75% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Split
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Split | Among large cities | In Croatia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 76 days | Among large cities: above 41% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 32.9°C | Among large cities: above 21% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.3°C | Among large cities: above 74% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 16 days | Among large cities: above 75% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.35 m | Among large cities: above 91% | |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 174 mm | Among large cities: above 10% | |
| Water stress | Low (<10%) | Among large cities: above 0% | |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.45 m/s² | Among large cities: above 85% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Split on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Split on the live map
2.45 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Split
- Banja Luka · Bosnia and Herz.
- Sarajevo · Bosnia and Herz.
- Podgorica · Montenegro
- Zagreb · Croatia
Large cities in Croatia
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Split, Croatia: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/HRV/split BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_HRV_split_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Split, Croatia: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/HRV/split},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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