Climate risk in Banja Luka
Srpska, Bosnia and Herzegovina
Main risks in Banja Luka
On earthquakes, Banja Luka ranks above at least 77% of the world's 626 large cities.
- Earthquakes
- very strong shaking on firm ground (0.19 g), more on soft ground [1]
- Higher than 77% of the world's large cities.
- For comparison: Ankara 0.2 g, Yangon 0.15 g, Ghaziabad 0.15 g.
- g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings.
0.19 g Natural Earth Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years
This week in Banja Luka
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2] [3]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapBanja Luka's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [4] [5]
By the 2050s, Banja Luka is projected to have the climate that Washington D.C. (United States) has today.
Climate risk in Washington D.C.
+1.8 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.7 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+1.4 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
-5%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, the comparison comes out the same.
Share this comparison
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. All 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Washington D.C.. [6]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Banja Luka | Among 626 large cities |
|---|---|---|
| Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [5] | +2.3 °C | higher than 74% of large cities |
| Hottest day of 2025 [7] | 38.2 °C | higher than 65% of large cities |
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [7] | 7 days | higher than 54% of large cities |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [7] | 10 days | higher than 51% of large cities |
| Drought risk [8] | High | the same grade as 44% of large cities; higher than 50%, lower than 6% |
| Water stress [8] | Low: under 10% of the available water drawn | lowest grade, like 30% of large cities |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [7] | 0 nights | like 14% of large cities |
| River flood depth, 100-year event [9] | Dry at the centre; other districts can flood | like 85% of large cities |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [10] | 0% | like 80% of large cities |
| Land burned in an average year [11] | 0% | like 84% of large cities |
| Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [12] | No hurricane or typhoon reaches here | |
| Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [9] | Far from the sea: no coastal flooding |
- Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
- If emissions level off: the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
- Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
Large cities in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Sources
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- GDACS - Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System: drought near the city now
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: hottest day, hot days, heavy rain, nights
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: drought risk, water stress
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on GSHAP, ECCC, GDACS - Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, ECMWF, WRI, HydroShare, GFED500, IRIS
APA
Criora. (2026). Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/BIH/banja-luka BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_BIH_banja_luka_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/BIH/banja-luka},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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