Criora

Azerbaijan

Region Asia Subregion Western Asia Income Upper middle income ISO AZE

Azerbaijan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Azerbaijan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
49 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    50 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    41 / 100
    ▲ + 0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    29 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    67 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    56 / 100
    ▼ -1.0 5y
Climate futures

Azerbaijan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Azerbaijan is projected to warm +4.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +11 mm.

Temperature

+4.4 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.3 °C → +4.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.7 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +6.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+11 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+17 mm → +11 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+13 mm → +16 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

35%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
29% → 35%
Current path SSP3-7.0
29% → 35%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 20% today.

River flooding

1.3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.1% → 1.3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.2% → 1.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.3% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Azerbaijan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.6 / 10
Peers

Azerbaijan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Asia
#13 of 18median 43
  1. 9GeorgiaMedium 42
  2. 10JordanMedium 44
  3. 11ArmeniaMedium 44
  4. 12KuwaitMedium 44
  5. 13AzerbaijanMedium 49
  6. 14TurkeyMedium 49
  7. 15LebanonMedium 53
  8. 16IraqMedium 59
  9. 17SyriaHigh 65
  10. 18YemenHigh 66
region
Asia
#26 of 48median 47
  1. 22MongoliaMedium 45
  2. 23Sri LankaMedium 46
  3. 24KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  4. 25Timor-LesteMedium 47
  5. 26AzerbaijanMedium 49
  6. 27TurkeyMedium 49
  7. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
  8. 29ThailandMedium 50
  9. 30VietnamMedium 51
  10. 31TajikistanMedium 52
income group
Upper middle income
#37 of 53median 44
  1. 33NamibiaMedium 47
  2. 34GabonMedium 48
  3. 35BrazilMedium 48
  4. 36Dominican Rep.Medium 48
  5. 37AzerbaijanMedium 49
  6. 38Bosnia and Herz.Medium 49
  7. 39ArgentinaMedium 49
  8. 40TurkeyMedium 49
  9. 41AlgeriaMedium 49
  10. 42SurinameMedium 50

Put two countries head to head

Compare Azerbaijan against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Azerbaijan?
Azerbaijan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 49 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Azerbaijan's risk?
Azerbaijan's highest pressures are governance (67, high) and adaptation (56). Its strongest area is social (29).
How might Azerbaijan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 25% of Azerbaijan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 69 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Azerbaijan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Azerbaijan is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +11 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Azerbaijan?
The share of Azerbaijan under high water stress is projected to move from 20% today to 35% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Azerbaijan?
The share of Azerbaijan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.3% today to 1.3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Azerbaijan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.