Turkey: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 49 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Turkey's risk?

Turkey's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and adaptation (52). Its strongest area is social (34).

How might Turkey's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 35% of Turkey's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 72 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Turkey warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Turkey is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -11 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Turkey's coast?

Coastal sea level along Turkey is projected to rise by +0.69 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.49 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Turkey?

The share of Turkey under high water stress is projected to move from 61% today to 71% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Turkey?

The share of Turkey exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.6% today to 0.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Turkey's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Turkey Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Western Asia
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: TUR

Turkey: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Turkey, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 49 / 100

48 Climate Medium
47 Nature -0.4 Medium
34 Social Low
65 Governance High
52 Adaptation -1.9 Medium

Which hazards threaten Turkey most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.0FloodHigh

Turkey in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Western Asia

#14 of 18 · median 43

Asia

#27 of 48 · median 47

Upper middle income

#40 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Turkey: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Turkey is projected to warm +4.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing -11 mm.

+4.4 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.3 °C → +4.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.6 °C → +2.9 °C

Hottest month +6.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-11 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -3 mm → -11 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +4 mm → -2 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

71%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 68% → 71%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 65% → 72%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 61% today.

0.7%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.7% → 0.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.6% → 0.6%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.6% today.

Sea level

Turkey: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.23 m → +0.69 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.19 m → +0.49 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Energy Imports	71.7 % of energy use	2023	95.9	+2.7	-0.8
Renewable Energy Share	12.0 % of total energy	2021	87.5	+12.1	-3.1
Fossil Fuel Consumption	81.3 % of total	2023	82.4	+16.4	-2.0
Renewable Electricity Share	35.4 % of total	2021	64.6	-10.5	-18.4
Coal Electricity Share	36.3 % of total	2023	60.2	+45.6	-0.6
Flood Risk	6.00 0-10	2026	60.0	+8.0	-5.5
Land Surface Temperature	22.4 deg C change	2021	54.8	-9.9	-12.7
Heating Degree Days	4723 degree days	2020	32.5	+31.1	+24.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	21.6 ug/m3	2020	20.8	+1.6	-5.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	4.89 metric tons	2020	15.5	+7.8	+4.6
Cooling Degree Days	1114 degree days	2020	15.3	-36.5	-35.7
Energy Use Per Capita	1853 kg oil eq per capita	2023	11.7	-5.0	-3.6
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.46 kt CO2e per capita	2020	10.7	+3.7	+4.6
Energy Intensity	2.27 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	10.1	-9.1	-8.8
Access to Clean Fuels	95.1 % population	2022	4.9	-5.3	-3.8
Heat Index	0.14 index	2020	0.1	+0.1	-2.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Disaster Preparedness	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+70.0	+75.0
Protected Areas	5.70 % of land	2023	94.3	+5.4	+1.1
Earthquake Risk	9.30 0-10	2026	93.0	+58.0	+25.5
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.82 0-1	2023	82.2	-2.0	+0.4
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.79 0-1	2023	78.9	+41.7	+42.2
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.76 0-1	2023	76.5	-10.0	-1.3
Urban Concentration	0.76 0-1	2023	75.7	+18.3	+20.3
Freshwater Withdrawal	25.7 % of internal resources	2021	73.3	+23.0	-2.3
Energy Import Dependency	0.72 0-1	2023	71.7	+46.0	+51.0
Agricultural Capacity	0.70 0-1	2023	69.9	-21.9	-18.6
Forest Area	29.3 % of land	2022	69.0	+2.7	-15.9
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.64 0-1	2023	64.0	-3.8	-1.3
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.60 0-1	2023	59.9	-16.4	-20.3
Agricultural Land	50.0 % of land	2022	58.9	+11.6	+18.6
Projected Hydropower Change	0.54 0-1	2023	54.4	+10.7	+10.7
Dam Capacity	0.54 0-1	2023	54.2	-39.1	-39.4
Tsunami Risk	5.00 0-10	2026	50.0	+39.0	+25.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.49 0-1	2023	49.0	+9.4	+21.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.46 0-1	2023	45.9	-11.7	-9.4
Food Production Index	129 index	2022	45.6	-21.5	-14.4
Protected Biome Areas	0.43 0-1	2023	43.5	+2.5	-1.4
Age Dependency Ratio	0.43 0-1	2023	43.3	-9.5	-2.3
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.41 0-1	2023	41.0	-21.1	-20.0
Natural Capital Dependency	0.30 0-1	2023	29.8	+8.0	+4.1
Rural Population	0.24 0-1	2023	24.3	-18.3	-20.3
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.22 0-1	2023	22.0	+14.6	-5.6
Projected Population Change	0.22 0-1	2023	21.7	-0.6	-1.9
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.22 0-1	2023	21.6	-17.6	-11.6
Projected Groundwater Change	0.19 0-1	2023	19.0	-7.2	-9.6
Agriculture GDP Share	6.16 % of GDP	2023	17.1	-1.8	-5.0
Population Below 5m	0.16 0-1	2023	15.6	+0.8	-2.2
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.12 0-1	2023	12.4	-6.0	+0.3
Paved Roads	0.11 0-1	2023	10.7	-44.3	-16.1
Threatened Mammal Species	19.0 count	2018	9.9	+4.7	+3.1
Food Import Dependency	0.10 0-1	2023	9.8	-11.9	-9.6
Ecological Footprint	0.09 0-1	2023	9.3	-13.3	-15.6
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.06 0-1	2023	6.1	-24.2	-15.1
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.05 0-1	2023	4.8	-8.7	-11.2
Water Dependency Ratio	0.02 0-1	2023	1.5	-5.4	-5.5
Tree Cover Loss	79284 hectares	2021	1.2	+1.1	+1.2
Water Stress	43.4 %	2021	1.1	+0.8	-0.3
Natural Resource Depletion	0.16 % of GNI	2020	0.6	-1.8	-3.5
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	-17.8
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	-18.8
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Uprooted People	8.80 0-10	2026	88.0	+29.0	+34.5
Education Expenditure	8.78 % of govt	2022	82.1	+17.2	+13.7
Hospital Beds	2.99 per 1,000	2020	77.7	-1.3	-2.9
Overweight Adults	67.6 % adults	2022	71.3	+15.3	+16.6
Income Share Bottom 20%	5.40 %	2022	69.4	+25.0	+38.8
School Gender Parity	0.98 ratio	2020	67.0	+10.1	+10.6
Gini Coefficient	44.5 0-100	2022	66.4	+35.7	+42.5
Primary School Enrollment	102 % gross	2022	60.6	-3.0	-3.6
Gender Labor Ratio	50.3 ratio F/M	2023	55.8	+28.8	+16.0
Recent Shocks	4.60 0-10	2026	46.0	+45.0	+43.0
GDP Growth	5.11 % annual	2023	45.4	-3.5	-2.4
Labor Participation	59.4 % (15+)	2023	45.1	+15.0	+13.9
Net Migration	-318070 persons	2023	44.2	-10.8	-10.7
Shared Prosperity Growth	4.09 % annual	2022	42.1	-17.7	-14.7
Life Expectancy	77.2 years	2023	28.9	-10.6	-4.3
Unemployment Rate	9.39 %	2023	26.5	+12.3	+14.9
Aging Population	10.0 % population	2023	24.2	+7.8	+10.4
Aid Dependency	2.30 0-10	2026	23.0	-2.0	+2.0
Sanitation Access	78.7 % population	2022	21.9	-18.1	-12.5
ESG Performance Score	2.34 0-100	2018	19.9	-5.1	-6.5
Poverty Rate (National)	13.9 % population	2022	19.8	-12.7	-0.4
Unmet Contraception Need	11.6 %	2018	19.4	-30.1	-14.2
Internet Users	86.0 % population	2023	15.7	-5.2	-0.8
Fertility Rate	1.51 births per woman	2023	14.6	-8.7	-8.6
Food Security	1.20 0-10	2026	12.0	-6.0	-6.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	12.8 per 1,000	2023	10.1	-2.1	-0.4
Development and Deprivation	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-21.0	-16.5
Communicable Disease Deaths	5.17 %	2019	6.1	-10.0	-8.1
Children Under 5	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-6.0	-8.0
Adult Literacy Rate	97.0 %	2019	4.3	-6.4	-1.4
Health Conditions	0.20 0-10	2026	2.0	-6.0	-2.0
Population Density	110 people/km2	2022	0.6	+0.1	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	-5.6
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	8234 count	2021	99.4	-0.6	-0.6
Scientific Articles	52658 count	2022	94.1	-5.8	-5.7
R&D Expenditure	1.32 % of GDP	2022	78.5	-9.5	-18.6
Political Stability	-1.01 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	70.2	+20.4	+14.6
Women in Parliament	19.8 % seats	2023	67.6	+9.4	-1.6
Voice and Accountability	-0.86 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	67.2	+18.4	+1.7
Rule of Law	-0.51 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.2	+7.3	+7.1
Control of Corruption	-0.50 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.0	+4.4	+1.7
INFORM Governance Index	5.90 0-10	2026	59.0	+3.0	+1.5
Government Effectiveness	-0.25 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	55.0	+3.3	+4.3
Regulatory Quality	-0.23 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	54.6	+1.9	0.0
Legal Rights Strength	7.00 0-12	2019	41.7	-8.3	-8.3
Healthcare Access	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	-8.0	-4.0
Physical Infrastructure	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	-11.0	-10.5
Communication Infrastructure	1.60 0-10	2026	16.0	-4.0	+1.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.31 0-1	2023	69.0	+4.7	+1.2
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.40 0-1	2023	60.4	+17.3	+12.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.41 0-1	2023	59.2	+7.3	+7.4
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.43 0-1	2023	56.7	+5.2	+13.8
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.46 0-1	2023	54.1	+1.5	+0.6
Innovation (Readiness)	0.47 0-1	2023	53.2	-41.5	-41.1
Doing Business Score	0.49 0-1	2023	51.3	-7.1	+0.2
ICT Infrastructure	0.58 0-1	2023	42.1	-5.6	-3.4
Education (Readiness)	0.77 0-1	2023	23.5	-49.5	-49.4

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Turkey?
Turkey: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 49 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Turkey's risk?
Turkey's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and adaptation (52). Its strongest area is social (34).
How might Turkey's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 35% of Turkey's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 72 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Turkey warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Turkey is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -11 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Turkey's coast?
Coastal sea level along Turkey is projected to rise by +0.69 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.49 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Turkey?
The share of Turkey under high water stress is projected to move from 61% today to 71% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Turkey?
The share of Turkey exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.6% today to 0.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Turkey's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.