Climate risk in Van
Van, Turkey · 371.7K people in the urban area
What threatens Van most
- Earthquake
- Very high GSHAP
- Water stress
- High WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 0.16 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Turkey
An earthquake's shaking at Van can reach 6 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Istanbul: 2.15 m/s².
The highest of the 32 large cities in Turkey.
Van's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Van's climate comes closest to that of Shymkent (Kazakhstan) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. Kazakhstan: the place on the map
+2.1°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.8°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.7°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-3%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Van would have the climate that Shymkent (Kazakhstan) has today.
How close the match is: 2.8 σ to the climate of Shymkent today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Van stands out
+2.8°C
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions
Istanbul: +2.3°C.
Higher than in 97% of the world's 630 large cities
0.16 m
River flood depth, 100-year event
Istanbul: Dry at the city centre point.
Higher than in 88% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Van
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Van | Among large cities | In Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 8 days | Among large cities: above 21% | In Turkey: 28 of 32 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 34°C | Among large cities: above 30% | In Turkey: 29 of 32 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.8°C | Among large cities: above 97% | In Turkey: 3 of 32 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.16 m | Among large cities: above 88% | In Turkey: 3 of 32 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | High (40-80%) | Among large cities: above 56% | In Turkey: 11 of 29 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Turkey: 19 of 29 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 6 m/s² | Among large cities: above 100% | In Turkey: 1 of 32 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Van on the live map
See the warming around Van on the live map
+2.8°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Turkey
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Van, Turkey: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/TUR/van BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_TUR_van_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Van, Turkey: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/TUR/van},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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