Climate risk in Shymkent
Shymkent, Kazakhstan · 1.2M people in the urban area
What threatens Shymkent most
- Water stress
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Kazakhstan
Shymkent is projected to be +2.8°C warmer by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Almaty: +2.4°C.
Shymkent's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Shymkent is projected to have the climate that Tashkent (Uzbekistan) has today.
+1.9°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.7°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+7%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Shymkent would have the climate that Diyarbakır (Turkey) has today.
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How close the match is: 1.2 σ to the climate of Tashkent today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Shymkent stands out
42.1°C
Hottest day of 2025
Almaty: 30.1°C.
Higher than in 89% of the world's 630 large cities
2.38 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Almaty: 7.69 m/s².
Higher than in 85% of the world's 627 large cities
Hazards at Shymkent
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Shymkent | Among large cities | In Kazakhstan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 47 days | Among large cities: above 80% | |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 29 days | Among large cities: above 29% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 42.1°C | Among large cities: above 89% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.8°C | Among large cities: above 95% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | High (40-80%) | Among large cities: above 56% | |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.38 m/s² | Among large cities: above 85% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Shymkent on the live map
See the hottest days around Shymkent on the live map
42.1°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Kazakhstan
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Shymkent, Kazakhstan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/KAZ/shymkent BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_KAZ_shymkent_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Shymkent, Kazakhstan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/KAZ/shymkent},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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