+4.9 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.5 °C → +4.9 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.9 °C → +3.1 °C
Hottest month +5.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Kazakhstan Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Central Asia
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- KAZ
Kazakhstan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Kazakhstan, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 44 / 100
5y
- 59 Climate Medium
- 33 Nature +0.0 Low
- 19 Social Very low
- 62 Governance High
- 49 Adaptation -0.9 Medium
Which hazards threaten Kazakhstan most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 7.6FloodHigh
- 2.4DRR capacityLow
Kazakhstan in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
1
Central Asia
#1 of 5 · median 5019
Asia
#19 of 48 · median 4727
Upper middle income
#27 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Kazakhstan: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Kazakhstan is projected to warm +4.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing +16 mm.
+16 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +13 mm → +16 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +9 mm → +14 mm
Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
28%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 20% → 28%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 22% → 26%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 11% today.
0.9%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.6% → 0.9%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.8% → 1%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.8% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 98.2 % of total | 98.1 |
Renewable Energy Share | 2.00 % of total energy | 97.9 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 11.0 % of total | 89.0 |
Flood Risk | 7.60 0-10 | 76.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 62.1 % of total | 64.5 |
Energy Imports | -122 % of energy use | 59.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 7787 degree days | 53.5 |
Land Surface Temperature | 17.2 deg C change | 44.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 10.9 metric tons | 34.6 |
Energy Intensity | 5.81 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 26.8 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 3562 kg oil eq per capita | 21.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 20.0 ug/m3 | 18.9 |
Cooling Degree Days | 1093 degree days | 15.0 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -2.14 index | 13.9 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.60 kt CO2e per capita | 13.9 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 93.1 % population | 6.9 |
Heat Index | 0.12 index | 0.1 |
Forest Area | 1.30 % of land | 98.6 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.98 0-1 | 98.4 |
Agricultural Land | 79.4 % of land | 93.8 |
Protected Areas | 11.7 % of land | 88.2 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.84 0-1 | 83.8 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.80 0-1 | 79.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 38.2 % of internal resources | 78.5 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.9 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.65 0-1 | 64.8 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.64 0-1 | 64.1 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.59 0-1 | 58.5 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.57 0-1 | 57.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 5.60 0-10 | 56.0 |
Urban Concentration | 0.55 0-1 | 54.9 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.49 0-1 | 49.0 |
Food Production Index | 128 index | 46.7 |
Rural Population | 0.45 0-1 | 45.1 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.41 0-1 | 40.6 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Water Bodies Extent | 63.9 % of land | 36.1 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.36 0-1 | 35.9 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.33 0-1 | 32.7 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 15.2 % of GNI | 26.6 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.23 0-1 | 22.5 |
Projected Population Change | 0.22 0-1 | 22.3 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.18 0-1 | 18.1 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.15 0-1 | 14.9 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.13 0-1 | 12.8 |
Paved Roads | 0.11 0-1 | 11.4 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.11 0-1 | 10.8 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 3.83 % of GDP | 10.6 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 16.0 count | 8.4 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.06 0-1 | 6.1 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.03 0-1 | 3.4 |
Water Stress | 34.1 % | 0.9 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.01 0-1 | 0.8 |
Slum Population | 0.01 0-1 | 0.8 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 718 hectares | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.00 ratio | 58.4 |
Net Migration | -4822 persons | 54.9 |
Overweight Adults | 53.1 % adults | 53.1 |
Uprooted People | 5.30 0-10 | 53.0 |
Hospital Beds | 6.72 per 1,000 | 47.9 |
GDP Growth | 5.10 % annual | 45.4 |
Fertility Rate | 3.01 births per woman | 42.3 |
Primary School Enrollment | 101 % gross | 39.9 |
Life Expectancy | 74.4 years | 37.5 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 15.5 % | 33.6 |
Education Expenditure | 24.1 % of govt | 31.6 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.29 0-100 | 23.3 |
Aging Population | 8.31 % population | 19.4 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 87.0 ratio F/M | 18.1 |
Gini Coefficient | 29.2 0-100 | 16.5 |
Labor Participation | 79.8 % (15+) | 13.8 |
Unemployment Rate | 4.82 % | 13.4 |
Safe Drinking Water | 89.3 % population | 11.3 |
Development and Deprivation | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Food Security | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 4.18 % annual | 11.0 |
Internet Users | 92.9 % population | 8.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 9.60 per 1,000 | 7.2 |
Children Under 5 | 0.60 0-10 | 6.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 5.12 % | 6.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 9.80 % | 5.6 |
Health Conditions | 0.40 0-10 | 4.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.30 0-10 | 3.0 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 99.8 % | 0.3 |
Aid Dependency | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Undernourishment | 2.50 % population | 0.0 |
Population Density | 7.42 people/km2 | 0.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 5.20 % population | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 803 count | 99.9 |
Scientific Articles | 3551 count | 99.6 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.14 % of GDP | 92.8 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.00 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.1 |
Women in Parliament | 18.4 % seats | 70.0 |
Rule of Law | -0.45 -2.5 to +2.5 | 58.9 |
Political Stability | -0.27 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.5 |
Control of Corruption | -0.27 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.3 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.40 0-10 | 54.0 |
Regulatory Quality | 0.07 -2.5 to +2.5 | 48.7 |
Government Effectiveness | 0.15 -2.5 to +2.5 | 47.1 |
Physical Infrastructure | 3.40 0-10 | 34.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 8.00 0-12 | 33.3 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 2.40 0-10 | 24.0 |
Healthcare Access | 1.70 0-10 | 17.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.20 0-1 | 80.3 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.34 0-1 | 66.2 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.36 0-1 | 63.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.42 0-1 | 57.9 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.52 0-1 | 48.2 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.52 0-1 | 47.7 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.58 0-1 | 42.1 |
Doing Business Score | 0.61 0-1 | 39.0 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.71 0-1 | 29.1 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Kazakhstan →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Kazakhstan.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Kazakhstan's risk?
Kazakhstan's highest pressures are governance (62, high) and climate (59). Its strongest area is social (19).
How might Kazakhstan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Kazakhstan's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 67 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Kazakhstan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Kazakhstan is on track to warm by +4.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +16 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Kazakhstan?
The share of Kazakhstan under high water stress is projected to move from 11% today to 28% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Kazakhstan?
The share of Kazakhstan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Kazakhstan's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.