Criora

Kazakhstan

Region Asia Subregion Central Asia Income Upper middle income ISO KAZ

Kazakhstan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Kazakhstan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
45 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    59 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    33 / 100
    ▲ + 0.0 5y
  3. Social
    Very low
    19 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    63 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    49 / 100
    ▼ -0.9 5y
Climate futures

Kazakhstan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Kazakhstan is projected to warm +4.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing +16 mm.

Temperature

+4.9 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.5 °C → +4.9 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.9 °C → +3.1 °C

Hottest month +5.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+16 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+13 mm → +16 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+9 mm → +14 mm

Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

28%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
20% → 28%
Current path SSP3-7.0
22% → 26%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 11% today.

River flooding

0.9%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.6% → 0.9%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.8% → 1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.8% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Kazakhstan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
7.6 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.2 / 10
Peers

Kazakhstan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Central Asia
#1 of 5median 50
  1. 1KazakhstanMedium 45
  2. 2KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  3. 3UzbekistanMedium 50
  4. 4TajikistanMedium 52
  5. 5TurkmenistanMedium 53
region
Asia
#20 of 48median 47
  1. 16ChinaMedium 43
  2. 17JordanMedium 44
  3. 18ArmeniaMedium 44
  4. 19KuwaitMedium 44
  5. 20KazakhstanMedium 45
  6. 21MalaysiaMedium 45
  7. 22MongoliaMedium 45
  8. 23Sri LankaMedium 46
  9. 24KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  10. 25Timor-LesteMedium 47
income group
Upper middle income
#28 of 53median 44
  1. 24JordanMedium 44
  2. 25PanamaMedium 44
  3. 26BotswanaMedium 44
  4. 27RomaniaMedium 44
  5. 28KazakhstanMedium 45
  6. 29MalaysiaMedium 45
  7. 30RussiaMedium 46
  8. 31TunisiaMedium 46
  9. 32SerbiaMedium 47
  10. 33NamibiaMedium 47

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Kazakhstan?
Kazakhstan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 45 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Kazakhstan's risk?
Kazakhstan's highest pressures are governance (63, high) and climate (59). Its strongest area is social (19).
How might Kazakhstan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Kazakhstan's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 68 to 67 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Kazakhstan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Kazakhstan is on track to warm by +4.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +16 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Kazakhstan?
The share of Kazakhstan under high water stress is projected to move from 11% today to 28% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Kazakhstan?
The share of Kazakhstan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Kazakhstan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.