China: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives China's risk?

China's highest pressures are climate (69, high) and nature (50). Its strongest area is social (15).

How might China's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 22% of China's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 65 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will China warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), China is on track to warm by +4.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +57 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along China's coast?

Coastal sea level along China is projected to rise by +0.80 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.56 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in China?

The share of China under high water stress is projected to move from 28% today to 31% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in China?

The share of China exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 2.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was China's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

China Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Eastern Asia
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: CHN

China: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is China, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 43 / 100

69 Climate High
50 Nature -0.3 Medium
15 Social Very low
36 Governance Low
44 Adaptation -5.4 Medium

Which hazards threaten China most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

9.3FloodCritical
3.0DRR capacityLow

China in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Eastern Asia

#3 of 5 · median 43

Asia

#16 of 48 · median 47

Upper middle income

#19 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

China: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, China is projected to warm +4.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing +57 mm.

+4.1 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.9 °C → +4.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.4 °C → +2.8 °C

Hottest month +4.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+57 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +36 mm → +57 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +31 mm → +40 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

31%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 31% → 31%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 33% → 33%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 28% today.

2.7%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2.3% → 2.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2% → 2.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Sea level

China: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.23 m → +0.80 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.20 m → +0.56 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Flood Risk	9.30 0-10	2026	93.0	+41.0	+27.5
Fossil Fuel Consumption	86.7 % of total	2022	86.2	+13.5	-0.6
Renewable Energy Share	15.2 % of total energy	2021	84.2	+8.8	-6.4
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.72 index	2021	76.8	+30.4	+40.4
Renewable Electricity Share	28.4 % of total	2021	71.6	-3.5	-11.4
Energy Imports	20.7 % of energy use	2022	70.5	-0.6	-0.2
Coal Electricity Share	61.7 % of total	2022	64.2	+47.5	+32.3
Coastal Protection Needed	71.7 % coast	2020	63.2	-21.1	-27.1
Heating Degree Days	8040 degree days	2020	55.2	+53.8	+47.6
Land Surface Temperature	18.8 deg C change	2021	47.4	-17.3	-20.1
PM2.5 Air Pollution	34.8 ug/m3	2020	37.3	+18.1	+11.1
Energy Intensity	6.30 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	29.6	+13.0	+11.2
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	7.76 metric tons	2020	24.7	+17.0	+13.8
Energy Use Per Capita	2691 kg oil eq per capita	2022	15.8	+7.5	+6.9
Cooling Degree Days	955 degree days	2020	13.1	-38.7	-37.9
Access to Clean Fuels	87.8 % population	2022	12.2	+1.9	+3.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.38 kt CO2e per capita	2020	8.9	+1.9	+2.8
Methane Emissions Per Capita	0.84 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.2	-1.9	0.0
Heat Index	3.96 index	2020	2.9	+2.9	+0.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Tsunami Risk	9.00 0-10	2026	90.0	+79.0	+65.0
Agricultural Capacity	0.88 0-1	2023	88.3	-3.5	-0.2
Dam Capacity	0.86 0-1	2023	85.6	-7.7	-8.0
Protected Areas	14.7 % of land	2023	85.2	-3.7	-8.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.84 0-1	2023	83.6	+15.8	+18.3
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.81 0-1	2023	80.8	-3.4	-1.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.80 0-1	2023	79.6	-6.9	+1.8
Forest Area	23.8 % of land	2022	74.8	+8.5	-10.1
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.70 0-1	2023	70.3	+33.0	+33.6
Freshwater Withdrawal	20.2 % of internal resources	2021	68.0	+17.7	-7.6
Earthquake Risk	6.70 0-10	2026	67.0	+32.0	-0.5
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.67 0-1	2023	66.6	+27.0	+38.9
Agricultural Land	55.4 % of land	2022	66.4	+19.1	+26.1
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.62 0-1	2023	62.4	+4.8	+7.1
Urban Concentration	0.62 0-1	2023	61.8	+4.4	+6.4
Food Production Index	112 index	2022	61.8	-5.3	+1.8
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.61 0-1	2023	61.1	-15.2	-19.1
Protected Biome Areas	0.47 0-1	2023	46.9	+5.9	+2.0
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	43.3	-0.4	-0.4
Age Dependency Ratio	0.41 0-1	2023	40.9	-11.9	-4.7
Rural Population	0.38 0-1	2023	38.2	-4.4	-6.4
Threatened Mammal Species	73.0 count	2018	38.2	+33.0	+31.4
Paved Roads	0.37 0-1	2023	36.6	-18.4	+9.9
Ecological Footprint	0.35 0-1	2023	34.6	+12.0	+9.7
Natural Capital Dependency	0.34 0-1	2023	33.6	+11.8	+7.9
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.33 0-1	2023	33.2	-6.0	0.0
Projected Groundwater Change	0.30 0-1	2023	29.6	+3.4	+1.0
Population Below 5m	0.29 0-1	2023	29.5	+14.8	+11.7
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.26 0-1	2023	25.6	-36.5	-35.4
Energy Import Dependency	0.21 0-1	2023	20.7	-5.0	0.0
Agriculture GDP Share	6.89 % of GDP	2023	19.2	+0.3	-2.9
Tree Cover Loss	536655 hectares	2021	17.9	+17.8	+17.9
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.17 0-1	2023	17.3	+9.9	-10.3
Food Import Dependency	0.14 0-1	2023	13.7	-8.0	-5.8
Projected Population Change	0.11 0-1	2023	11.3	-11.0	-12.3
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.09 0-1	2023	9.2	-4.3	-6.8
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.09 0-1	2023	9.1	-21.2	-12.1
Child Malnutrition	0.08 0-1	2023	7.9	-5.9	-9.9
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.07 0-1	2023	7.4	-11.0	-4.7
Natural Resource Depletion	1.01 % of GNI	2021	1.8	-0.3	-0.8
Water Stress	41.5 %	2021	1.1	+0.8	-0.3
Water Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	1.0	-5.9	-6.0
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.2	-6.6	-3.7
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-30.0	-25.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education Expenditure	10.5 % of govt	2022	75.3	+10.4	+6.9
Hospital Beds	5.00 per 1,000	2020	61.7	-17.3	-18.9
GDP Growth	5.41 % annual	2023	44.9	-4.0	-2.9
Primary School Enrollment	99.3 % gross	2023	40.8	-1.2	-0.2
Income Share Bottom 20%	7.40 %	2021	39.4	-0.7	0.0
School Gender Parity	1.01 ratio	2021	38.8	-2.2	-2.5
Gini Coefficient	35.7 0-100	2021	37.4	+4.6	+2.6
Aging Population	14.3 % population	2023	36.6	+20.2	+22.8
Net Migration	-567724 persons	2023	35.7	-19.3	-19.2
Development and Deprivation	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	+4.0	+8.5
Sanitation Access	67.2 % population	2022	33.7	-6.3	-0.6
Overweight Adults	37.5 % adults	2022	33.4	-22.6	-21.3
Internet Users	77.5 % population	2023	25.3	+4.4	+8.9
Gender Labor Ratio	83.7 ratio F/M	2023	21.4	-5.6	-18.4
Labor Participation	75.0 % (15+)	2023	21.1	-9.0	-10.1
Life Expectancy	78.0 years	2023	21.0	-18.5	-12.2
Unemployment Rate	4.67 %	2023	13.0	-1.2	+1.4
Food Security	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-12.0	-12.0
ESG Performance Score	2.53 0-100	2018	5.6	-19.4	-20.8
Fertility Rate	1.00 births per woman	2023	5.1	-18.2	-18.1
Children Under 5	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-6.0	-8.0
Adult Literacy Rate	97.0 %	2020	4.3	-4.4	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	6.20 per 1,000	2023	4.2	-8.0	-6.3
Communicable Disease Deaths	3.55 %	2019	3.5	-12.6	-10.7
Health Conditions	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-5.0	-1.0
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	-2.0
Population Density	150 people/km2	2022	0.8	+0.3	+0.2
Aid Dependency	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-25.0	-21.0
Uprooted People	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-59.0	-53.5
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Shared Prosperity Growth	5.19 % annual	2021	0.0	-50.2	-16.1
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	-5.6
Poverty Rate (National)	0.00 % population	2020	0.0	-34.2	-21.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Voice and Accountability	-1.50 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	80.1	+31.2	+14.6
Legal Rights Strength	3.00 0-12	2019	75.0	+25.0	+25.0
Political Stability	-0.51 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.3	+10.5	+4.7
R&D Expenditure	2.56 % of GDP	2022	57.9	-30.1	-39.2
Regulatory Quality	-0.36 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	57.1	+4.4	+2.5
Women in Parliament	26.5 % seats	2023	56.7	-1.5	-12.5
Rule of Law	-0.04 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	50.8	-2.2	-2.3
Control of Corruption	-0.01 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	50.1	-5.5	-8.2
INFORM Governance Index	4.50 0-10	2026	45.0	-11.0	-12.5
Government Effectiveness	0.68 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	36.4	-15.3	-14.3
Physical Infrastructure	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	+4.0	+4.5
Disaster Risk Reduction	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	-11.5	-6.0
Healthcare Access	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	-17.0	-13.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	-7.0	-1.5
Patent Applications	1426644 count	2021	0.0	-100.0	-100.0
Scientific Articles	898949 count	2022	0.0	-99.9	-99.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.35 0-1	2023	64.9	+13.4	+22.0
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.42 0-1	2023	57.6	-6.7	-10.2
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.43 0-1	2023	56.6	+4.0	+3.1
Education (Readiness)	0.45 0-1	2023	55.2	-17.8	-17.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.48 0-1	2023	51.8	+8.7	+3.5
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.50 0-1	2023	49.9	-2.1	-1.9
Doing Business Score	0.59 0-1	2023	40.5	-17.9	-10.6
ICT Infrastructure	0.65 0-1	2023	35.2	-12.5	-10.3
Innovation (Readiness)	1.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-94.7	-94.3

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is China?
China: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives China's risk?
China's highest pressures are climate (69, high) and nature (50). Its strongest area is social (15).
How might China's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 22% of China's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 65 to 69 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will China warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), China is on track to warm by +4.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +57 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along China's coast?
Coastal sea level along China is projected to rise by +0.80 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.56 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in China?
The share of China under high water stress is projected to move from 28% today to 31% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in China?
The share of China exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 2.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was China's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.