Climate risk in Kunming
Yunnan, China · 2.9M people in the urban area
What threatens Kunming most
- Earthquake
- Very high GSHAP
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of China
An earthquake's shaking at Kunming can reach 4.36 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Shanghai: 0.35 m/s².
The highest of the 135 large cities in China.
Kunming's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Kunming's climate comes closest to that of Baoshan (China) today, though no large city matches it well.
Such a climate exists today, though not in any large city. China: the place on the map
+1.5°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.5°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.3°C
Lowest in the coldest month
0%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, no large city has such a climate today; the nearest is Rosario (Argentina).
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How close the match is: 2.3 σ to the climate of Baoshan today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Kunming stands out
21 days
Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025
Shanghai: 12 days.
Higher than in 87% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Kunming
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Kunming | Among large cities | In China |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 29.5°C | Among large cities: above 6% | In China: 133 of 135 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.7°C | Among large cities: above 29% | In China: 132 of 135 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 21 days | Among large cities: above 87% | In China: 17 of 135 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low (<10%) | Among large cities: above 0% | In China: 103 of 135 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In China: 74 of 135 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 4.36 m/s² | Among large cities: above 97% | In China: 1 of 135 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Kunming on the live map
See the heavy rain days around Kunming on the live map
21 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Kunming
- Liupanshui · China
- Baoshan · China
- Guiyang · China
- Luzhou · China
Large cities in China
- Shanghai
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- Nanjing
- Guiyang
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- Dalian
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- Taiyuan
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- Huai'an
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- Liaocheng
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- Jinhua
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- Yichun
- Shaoguan
- Zhuhai
- Jiamusi
- Hengyang
- Benxi
- Hanzhong
- Qinhuangdao
- Yongzhou
- Baoshan
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Kunming, China: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CHN/kunming BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_CHN_kunming_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Kunming, China: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CHN/kunming},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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