Criora

Climate risk in Shantou

Guangdong, China

Main risks in Shantou

On tropical cyclones, coastal floods and heavy rain, Shantou ranks above at least 88% of the world's 626 large cities.

Tropical cyclones
once in 100 years, winds of about 195 km/h (category 3) [1]
Higher than 99% of the world's large cities; 2nd of 135 large cities in China.
For comparison: Manila 209 km/h, Chittagong 189 km/h, Chennai 186 km/h.
Coastal floods
a 100-year flood from the sea puts 41% of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) under 0.5 m of water or more; 48% by 2080 if emissions keep rising [2]
Higher than 99% of the world's large coastal cities; 3rd of 36 large coastal cities in China.
For comparison: Howrah 28%, Chittagong 23%, Yangon 8.8%.
Heavy rain
22 days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [3]
Higher than 88% of the world's large cities; 13th of 135 large cities in China.
For comparison: Jakarta 24 days, Pune 23 days, Seoul 21 days.
Natural Earth

Coastal flood depth, 100-year event, in today's climate

0 3 m
See how deep a coastal flood reaches around Shantou on the live map 

This week in Shantou

This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [4] [5]

Open the city on the map

The Earth right now

The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.

Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.

Open the live map

Where else Shantou stands out

22%

Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [6]

Higher than 94% of the world's large cities; 23rd of 135 large cities in China.

For comparison: Yangon 23%, Lahore 20%, Quezon City 19%.

214 nights

Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [3]

Higher than 76% of the world's large cities; 6th of 135 large cities in China.

For comparison: Pune 228 nights, Hanoi 228 nights, Rio de Janeiro 226 nights.

Around the city on the map

Sinking land

Natural Earth
How fast the land sinks, from satellite radar 2013-2019 <1 cm/yr (nominal) 1-5 cm/yr (considerable) >5 cm/yr (severe)
See the land subsidence around Shantou on the live map 

Shantou's climate in the 2050s

2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [7] [8]

By the 2050s, Shantou is projected to have the climate that Shenzhen (China) has today.

Climate risk in Shenzhen 

+1.3 °C

Mean temperature over the year

+1.2 °C

Average daily high, warmest month

+1.4 °C

Average nightly low, coldest month

+2%

Precipitation over the year

If emissions keep rising, Hanoi (Vietnam) comes closest, though the match is only partial.

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Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. 1 of the 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Shenzhen. [9]

Everything else measured

From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.

Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years [10] strong shaking, 0.12 g higher than 67% of large cities Rank in China (1 = highest): 27 of 135
Sea level rise by 2050 over the 1995-2014 average, if emissions level off [11] 20 cm, 15 cm of it after 2020 higher than 47% of large coastal cities Rank in China (1 = highest): 1 of 36 with data
Water stress [12] Low-Medium: 10 to 20% of the available water drawn the same grade as 12% of large cities; higher than 30%, lower than 58%
Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [8] +1.6 °C higher than 28% of large cities Rank in China (1 = highest): 134 of 135
Hottest day of 2025 [3] 31.7 °C higher than 15% of large cities Rank in China (1 = highest): 129 of 135
Drought risk [12] Medium-High the same grade as 38% of large cities; higher than 12%, lower than 50%
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [3] 0 days like 37% of large cities
River flood depth, 100-year event [2] Dry at the centre; other districts can flood like 85% of large cities
Land burned in an average year [13] 0% like 84% of large cities
  • Flood depth is given for one 1 km square at the city centre, in today's climate.
  • Earthquake shaking is given for firm ground in g, the acceleration of gravity: around 0.1 g shaking is strong and can cause light damage, on the US Geological Survey's scale. The figure is the typical value over all the land within 15 km of the centre, not that of one point. Soft ground, such as an old lake bed or river silt, shakes harder.
  • Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
  • Sea level rise is the IPCC projection for the nearest coast, counted from the 1995-2014 average. It is on a grid about 100 km across and counts the slow rise or fall of the land. "If emissions level off" is the IPCC's SSP2-4.5 scenario.
  • Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
  • Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.

The nearest large cities

Distance from centre to centre.

Large cities in China

Climate risk in China 

Sources

  1. IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
  2. Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: coastal floods, river flood depth
  3. ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: heavy rain, nights, hottest day, hot days
  4. Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
  5. Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasts: air pollution near the city now
  6. Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
  7. TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
  8. NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): the 2050s comparison, warming
  9. Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
  10. GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
  11. IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projections: sea level rise
  12. Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: water stress, drought risk
  13. Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land

About these sources 

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In a line

Source: Criora (criora.com), based on IRIS, WRI, ECMWF, ECCC, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) global forecasts, HydroShare, TerraClimate, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, GSHAP, IPCC, GFED500

APA

Criora. (2026). Shantou, China: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CHN/shantou

BibTeX

@misc{criora_atlas_CHN_shantou_2026,
  author = {{Criora}},
  title = {Shantou, China: climate risk profile},
  year = {2026},
  url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CHN/shantou},
  urldate = {2026-11-04}
}

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