Climate risk in Chengdu
Sichuan, China · 4.1M people in the urban area
What threatens Chengdu most
- Water stress
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Moderate GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of China
Chengdu's hottest day of 2025 reached 39°C.
Shanghai: 37°C.
Chengdu's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Chengdu's climate comes closest to that of Zigong (China) today, though no large city matches it well.
No place on Earth matches it well today either. China: the place on the map
+1.7°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.7°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+1%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, the nearest is Zigong (China), and only in part.
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How close the match is: 2.6 σ to the climate of Zigong today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Chengdu
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Chengdu | Among large cities | In China |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 20 days | Among large cities: above 66% | In China: 64 of 135 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 121 days | Among large cities: above 57% | In China: 65 of 135 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 39°C | Among large cities: above 71% | In China: 44 of 135 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2°C | Among large cities: above 51% | In China: 99 of 135 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 14 days | Among large cities: above 67% | In China: 63 of 135 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | High (40-80%) | Among large cities: above 56% | In China: 52 of 135 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In China: 74 of 135 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.83 m/s² | Among large cities: above 58% | In China: 42 of 135 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Chengdu on the live map
See the hot days around Chengdu on the live map
20 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities in China
- Shanghai
- Beijing
- Guangzhou
- Shenzhen
- Wuhan
- Tianjin
- Chongqing
- Yangzhou
- Dongguan
- Xi'an
- Hechi
- Nanjing
- Guiyang
- Harbin
- Ürümqi
- Zhangzhou
- Shiyan
- Changchun
- Dalian
- Zibo
- Hangzhou
- Kunming
- Taiyuan
- Huizhou
- Qingdao
- Yinchuan
- Jinan
- Zhengzhou
- Fuzhou
- Changsha
- Xiangtan
- Lanzhou
- Xiamen
- Lianshan
- Shijiazhuang
- Jilin City
- Wenzhou
- Nanchang
- Nantong
- Nanchong
- Nanning
- Zaozhuang
- Yantai
- Xuzhou
- Linyi
- Haikou
- Zunyi
- Baotou
- Hefei
- Lianyungang
- Suzhou
- Nanyang
- Ningbo
- Tangshan
- Datong
- Jiangmen
- Shucheng
- Fuyang
- Shangqiu
- Wuxi
- Qingyuan
- Hohhot
- Luoyang
- Daqing
- Wanzhou
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- Qiqihar
- Anshan
- Handan
- Yancheng
- Taizhou
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- Guilin
- Xiantao
- Zhaoqing
- Weifang
- Xinyang
- Putian
- Luzhou
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- Liuzhou
- Fushun
- Changde
- Neijiang
- Quanzhou
- Kaifeng
- Huainan
- Baoji
- Suining
- Mianyang
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- Yichang
- Heze
- Changzhou
- Luohe
- Yangjiang
- Chifeng
- Xuchang
- Huai'an
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- Liaocheng
- Tianshui
- Liupanshui
- Changzhi
- Weinan
- Jining
- Jiaxing
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- Zhuhai
- Jiamusi
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Chengdu, China: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/CHN/chengdu BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_CHN_chengdu_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Chengdu, China: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/CHN/chengdu},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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