+4.0 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.8 °C → +4.0 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.3 °C → +2.8 °C
Hottest month +3.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Japan Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Eastern Asia
- Income
- High income, OECD
- ISO
- JPN
Japan: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Japan, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 41 / 100
5y
- 61 Climate High
- 54 Nature -0.1 Medium
- 17 Social Very low
- 40 Governance Medium
- 32 Adaptation -0.4 Low
Which hazards threaten Japan most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 7.8FloodHigh
- 0.3DRR capacityVery low
Japan in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
2
Eastern Asia
#2 of 5 · median 4313
Asia
#13 of 48 · median 4727
High income: OECD
#27 of 31 · median 37Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Japan: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Japan is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +96 mm.
+96 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +50 mm → +96 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +53 mm → +69 mm
Driest month +2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
0%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.1% → 0%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0.1% → 0%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.1% today.
1.9%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 1.5% → 1.9%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.9% → 1.7%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.7% today.
Sea level
Japan: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.28 m → +0.91 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.24 m → +0.65 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Coastal Protection Needed | 100.0 % coast | 99.9 |
Energy Imports | 87.2 % of energy use | 97.8 |
Renewable Energy Share | 8.80 % of total energy | 90.9 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 84.8 % of total | 86.4 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 21.1 % of total | 78.9 |
Flood Risk | 7.80 0-10 | 78.0 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | 0.59 index | 67.5 |
Coal Electricity Share | 28.5 % of total | 61.4 |
Land Surface Temperature | 15.3 deg C change | 40.3 |
Heating Degree Days | 4741 degree days | 32.6 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 8.03 metric tons | 25.5 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 3041 kg oil eq per capita | 19.1 |
Energy Intensity | 3.15 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 17.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 998 degree days | 13.7 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 12.8 ug/m3 | 9.9 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.15 kt CO2e per capita | 3.4 |
Heat Index | 2.33 index | 1.7 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Tsunami Risk | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Earthquake Risk | 9.70 0-10 | 97.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.94 0-1 | 93.6 |
Urban Concentration | 0.91 0-1 | 91.4 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.87 0-1 | 87.2 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.87 0-1 | 86.8 |
Protected Areas | 15.2 % of land | 84.7 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.80 0-1 | 79.8 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.76 0-1 | 76.3 |
Population Below 5m | 0.75 0-1 | 75.2 |
Food Production Index | 100 index | 72.6 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.67 0-1 | 67.0 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.9 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 18.2 % of internal resources | 64.5 |
Water Bodies Extent | 37.5 % of land | 62.5 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.52 0-1 | 51.6 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.48 0-1 | 48.2 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.43 0-1 | 43.5 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.39 0-1 | 39.1 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.39 0-1 | 38.7 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.37 0-1 | 36.5 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.35 0-1 | 35.0 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.29 0-1 | 29.0 |
Forest Area | 68.4 % of land | 27.6 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Paved Roads | 0.24 0-1 | 24.1 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.21 0-1 | 20.5 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.16 0-1 | 15.6 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 29.0 count | 15.2 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.15 0-1 | 14.9 |
Agricultural Land | 12.7 % of land | 14.6 |
Rural Population | 0.09 0-1 | 8.6 |
Projected Population Change | 0.05 0-1 | 4.7 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 0.94 % of GDP | 2.6 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.01 0-1 | 1.4 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.01 0-1 | 0.9 |
Water Stress | 36.0 % | 0.9 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.01 0-1 | 0.8 |
Tree Cover Loss | 48452 hectares | 0.7 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.01 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Slum Population | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Education Expenditure | 7.52 % of govt | 87.2 |
Aging Population | 29.6 % population | 80.5 |
Net Migration | 175003 persons | 61.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 102 % gross | 61.0 |
GDP Growth | 1.48 % annual | 51.1 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 6.90 % | 47.2 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 0.36 % annual | 45.4 |
Uprooted People | 4.30 0-10 | 43.0 |
School Gender Parity | 1.00 ratio | 32.7 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 76.8 ratio F/M | 28.6 |
Gini Coefficient | 32.3 0-100 | 28.1 |
Overweight Adults | 24.0 % adults | 16.6 |
Internet Users | 87.0 % population | 14.6 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 10.3 % | 14.1 |
Labor Participation | 81.5 % (15+) | 11.1 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.47 0-100 | 10.6 |
Fertility Rate | 1.20 births per woman | 8.9 |
Food Security | 0.80 0-10 | 8.0 |
Life Expectancy | 84.0 years | 7.3 |
Unemployment Rate | 2.60 % | 7.1 |
Children Under 5 | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Undernourishment | 3.40 % population | 1.8 |
Population Density | 343 people/km2 | 1.8 |
Safe Drinking Water | 98.7 % population | 1.4 |
Health Conditions | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Sanitation Access | 99.1 % population | 0.9 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 2.40 per 1,000 | 0.9 |
Aid Dependency | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 12.7 per 1,000 | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 103723 count | 88.5 |
Patent Applications | 222452 count | 84.4 |
Women in Parliament | 10.3 % seats | 83.1 |
Legal Rights Strength | 5.00 0-12 | 58.3 |
R&D Expenditure | 3.41 % of GDP | 43.7 |
Political Stability | 0.95 -2.5 to +2.5 | 31.0 |
Voice and Accountability | 1.11 -2.5 to +2.5 | 27.9 |
Control of Corruption | 1.40 -2.5 to +2.5 | 22.1 |
Regulatory Quality | 1.47 -2.5 to +2.5 | 20.6 |
Rule of Law | 1.54 -2.5 to +2.5 | 19.3 |
INFORM Governance Index | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
Government Effectiveness | 1.63 -2.5 to +2.5 | 17.4 |
Healthcare Access | 1.00 0-10 | 10.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 0.80 0-10 | 8.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 0.30 0-10 | 3.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.39 0-1 | 61.3 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.55 0-1 | 44.8 |
Doing Business Score | 0.63 0-1 | 37.5 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.69 0-1 | 30.6 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.73 0-1 | 26.6 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.75 0-1 | 25.4 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.80 0-1 | 20.4 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.81 0-1 | 18.9 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 1.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Japan →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Japan.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Japan?
Japan: mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Japan's risk?
Japan's highest pressures are climate (61, high) and nature (54). Its strongest area is social (17).
How might Japan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 23% of Japan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Japan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Japan is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +96 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Japan's coast?
Coastal sea level along Japan is projected to rise by +0.91 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.65 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Japan?
The share of Japan under high water stress is projected to move from 0.1% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Japan?
The share of Japan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.7% today to 1.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Japan's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.