Criora

Japan

Region Asia Subregion Eastern Asia Income High income: OECD ISO JPN

Japan sits mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Japan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
41 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    61 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    54 / 100
    ▼ -0.1 5y
  3. Social
    Very low
    18 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    40 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Low
    32 / 100
    ▼ -0.4 5y
Climate futures

Japan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Japan is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing +96 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.8 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.3 °C → +2.8 °C

Hottest month +3.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+96 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+50 mm → +96 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+53 mm → +69 mm

Driest month +2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Japan: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.28 m → +0.91 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.24 m → +0.65 m

Water stress

0%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.1% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0
0.1% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.1% today.

River flooding

1.9%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.5% → 1.9%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.9% → 1.7%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.7% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Japan.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Japan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
7.8 / 10
DRR capacity
Very low
0.0 / 10
Peers

Japan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Asia
#2 of 5median 43
  1. 1South KoreaLow 37
  2. 2JapanMedium 41
  3. 3ChinaMedium 43
  4. 4MongoliaMedium 45
  5. 5North KoreaMedium 54
region
Asia
#12 of 48median 47
  1. 8CyprusLow 37
  2. 9BruneiLow 39
  3. 10MaldivesMedium 41
  4. 11Saudi ArabiaMedium 41
  5. 12JapanMedium 41
  6. 13BhutanMedium 41
  7. 14OmanMedium 41
  8. 15GeorgiaMedium 42
  9. 16ChinaMedium 43
  10. 17JordanMedium 44
income group
High income: OECD
#27 of 31median 37
  1. 22FranceLow 38
  2. 23SloveniaLow 38
  3. 24PolandLow 39
  4. 25United States of AmericaMedium 40
  5. 26SpainMedium 41
  6. 27JapanMedium 41
  7. 28HungaryMedium 42
  8. 29SlovakiaMedium 42
  9. 30GreeceMedium 43
  10. 31ItalyMedium 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare Japan against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Japan?
Japan sits mid-pack overall, with climate the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 41 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Japan's risk?
Japan's highest pressures are climate (61, high) and nature (54). Its strongest area is social (18).
How might Japan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 23% of Japan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 73 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Japan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Japan is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +96 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Japan's coast?
Coastal sea level along Japan is projected to rise by +0.91 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.65 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Japan?
The share of Japan under high water stress is projected to move from 0.1% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Japan?
The share of Japan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.7% today to 1.9% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Japan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.