Poland: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 39 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Poland's risk?

Poland's highest pressures are governance (52, medium) and climate (50). Its strongest area is nature (21).

How might Poland's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 90% of Poland's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Poland warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Poland is on track to warm by +3.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +16 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Poland's coast?

Coastal sea level along Poland is projected to rise by +0.86 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.63 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Poland?

The share of Poland under high water stress is projected to move from 14% today to 18% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Poland?

The share of Poland exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.3% today to 1.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Poland's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Poland Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Europe
Subregion: Eastern Europe
Income: High income, OECD
ISO: POL

Poland: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Poland, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Low 39 / 100

50 Climate Medium
21 Nature +0.0 Low
25 Social Low
52 Governance Medium
46 Adaptation +0.9 Medium

Which hazards threaten Poland most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

5.9FloodMedium
1.9DRR capacityVery low

Poland in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Eastern Europe

#2 of 10 · median 43

Europe

#26 of 43 · median 38

High income: OECD

#24 of 31 · median 37

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Poland: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Poland is projected to warm +3.8 °C, with annual rainfall changing +16 mm.

+3.8 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.4 °C → +3.8 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.2 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +6.1 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+16 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +23 mm → +16 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +36 mm → +26 mm

Driest month +4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

18%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 14% → 18%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 14% → 8.5%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 14% today.

1.7%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 1.3% → 1.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 1.3% → 1.5%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.3% today.

Sea level

Poland: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 4 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.29 m → +0.86 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.27 m → +0.63 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coal Electricity Share	60.3 % of total	2023	100.0	+85.4	+90.6
Energy Imports	48.9 % of energy use	2023	93.2	0.0	-1.0
Fossil Fuel Consumption	84.6 % of total	2023	86.2	+20.2	+25.6
Renewable Energy Share	15.2 % of total energy	2021	84.2	+8.8	+6.4
Renewable Electricity Share	17.5 % of total	2021	82.5	+7.4	+22.4
Flood Risk	5.90 0-10	2026	59.0	+7.0	0.0
Coastal Protection Needed	60.3 % coast	2020	48.5	-35.8	-30.7
Heating Degree Days	5725 degree days	2020	39.3	+37.8	+2.5
Land Surface Temperature	12.7 deg C change	2021	34.9	-29.8	-3.5
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	7.44 metric tons	2020	23.7	+16.0	+8.7
Energy Intensity	3.13 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	16.8	-2.4	+2.3
Energy Use Per Capita	2657 kg oil eq per capita	2023	16.7	0.0	-1.4
PM2.5 Air Pollution	18.0 ug/m3	2020	16.3	-2.9	+8.4
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.61 kt CO2e per capita	2020	14.2	+7.2	+3.6
Cooling Degree Days	252 degree days	2020	3.5	-48.3	-0.2
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Access to Clean Fuels	100 % population	2022	0.0	-10.3	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	0.98 0-1	2023	98.1	+4.8	+6.6
Agricultural Capacity	0.81 0-1	2023	81.5	-10.3	-1.2
Projected Warm Period Change	0.78 0-1	2023	78.1	+10.3	+4.6
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.72 0-1	2023	71.8	+14.2	+5.9
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.69 0-1	2023	68.8	-15.4	+8.9
Forest Area	31.1 % of land	2022	67.1	+0.8	+2.5
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	17.3 % of internal resources	2021	63.4	+13.1	+13.1
Protected Areas	38.0 % of land	2023	62.0	-26.9	-20.1
Food Production Index	112 index	2022	61.8	-5.3	-10.5
Urban Concentration	0.57 0-1	2023	57.1	-0.3	-15.1
Agricultural Land	46.3 % of land	2022	54.5	+7.2	+3.5
Age Dependency Ratio	0.50 0-1	2023	50.4	-2.4	-1.7
Energy Import Dependency	0.49 0-1	2023	48.9	+23.2	0.0
Projected Hydropower Change	0.44 0-1	2023	44.1	+0.4	-1.3
Rural Population	0.43 0-1	2023	42.9	+0.3	+15.1
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.42 0-1	2023	41.8	+2.2	+18.1
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.41 0-1	2023	41.2	+4.0	+1.6
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.38 0-1	2023	38.5	-23.6	0.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.34 0-1	2023	34.4	-41.9	-11.7
Natural Capital Dependency	0.34 0-1	2023	33.5	+11.7	+5.0
Paved Roads	0.32 0-1	2023	32.3	-22.8	+22.2
Projected Groundwater Change	0.29 0-1	2023	29.1	+2.9	+3.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.25 0-1	2023	25.2	-15.8	+5.7
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.15 0-1	2023	14.8	+7.4	+7.1
Food Import Dependency	0.14 0-1	2023	14.2	-7.5	-2.6
Disaster Preparedness	0.13 0-1	2023	12.5	-17.5	-20.0
Ecological Footprint	0.12 0-1	2023	11.9	-10.7	+7.9
Water Dependency Ratio	0.11 0-1	2023	11.4	+4.5	-3.8
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.11 0-1	2023	11.2	-9.2	+9.1
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.10 0-1	2023	10.2	-3.3	-0.2
Population Below 5m	0.10 0-1	2023	9.6	-5.2	0.0
Earthquake Risk	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	-27.0	-23.5
Agriculture GDP Share	2.77 % of GDP	2023	7.7	-11.2	+1.5
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.07 0-1	2023	7.0	-11.4	-2.6
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.06 0-1	2023	6.1	-24.2	+3.1
Projected Population Change	0.06 0-1	2023	5.9	-16.4	-2.7
Water Bodies Extent	96.1 % of land	2020	3.9	-17.7	-15.2
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.02 0-1	2023	2.1	-37.1	-8.3
Threatened Mammal Species	4.00 count	2018	2.1	-3.1	0.0
Tree Cover Loss	77568 hectares	2021	1.2	+1.1	+1.0
Water Stress	32.1 %	2021	0.8	+0.5	+0.6
Natural Resource Depletion	0.32 % of GNI	2021	0.6	-1.5	+0.3
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.2	-6.6	+0.2
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-86.5	-30.8
Child Malnutrition	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-13.8	0.0
Slum Population	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-16.5	0.0
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Uprooted People	8.60 0-10	2026	86.0	+27.0	+16.5
Education Expenditure	11.2 % of govt	2021	75.3	+5.3	-1.5
School Gender Parity	0.98 ratio	2020	65.7	+8.9	+6.3
Overweight Adults	62.7 % adults	2022	65.2	+9.2	+7.9
Primary School Enrollment	101 % gross	2022	62.8	-0.8	-0.3
Net Migration	-7824 persons	2023	54.8	-0.2	-0.4
GDP Growth	0.25 % annual	2023	53.1	+4.2	+2.8
Hospital Beds	6.11 per 1,000	2020	52.8	-26.2	-13.1
Aging Population	19.6 % population	2023	51.7	+35.3	-1.7
Shared Prosperity Growth	5.21 % annual	2022	32.2	-27.6	-25.4
Gender Labor Ratio	78.0 ratio F/M	2023	27.3	+0.3	+6.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	8.50 %	2022	26.4	-18.0	-9.7
Life Expectancy	78.5 years	2023	24.6	-14.9	+9.4
Labor Participation	74.7 % (15+)	2023	21.6	-8.5	+3.1
Gini Coefficient	28.9 0-100	2022	15.6	-15.2	-7.5
Internet Users	86.4 % population	2023	15.3	-5.6	+5.7
Poverty Rate (National)	12.2 % population	2023	11.9	-13.9	0.0
Safe Drinking Water	88.9 % population	2022	11.8	-9.7	+9.8
Aid Dependency	1.10 0-10	2026	11.0	-14.0	+5.0
Fertility Rate	1.16 births per woman	2023	8.1	-15.2	-5.2
Unemployment Rate	2.74 %	2023	7.5	-6.7	-7.6
Communicable Disease Deaths	5.85 %	2019	7.1	-9.0	+1.7
ESG Performance Score	2.54 0-100	2018	5.2	-19.8	-8.0
Children Under 5	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-8.0	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	4.40 per 1,000	2023	2.6	-9.6	+0.8
Sanitation Access	97.9 % population	2022	2.1	-37.9	-8.2
Health Conditions	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-7.0	-1.0
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	+1.0
Population Density	120 people/km2	2022	0.6	+0.1	+0.1
Adult Literacy Rate	99.8 %	2021	0.3	-6.2	-0.5
Development and Deprivation	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-30.0	0.0
Food Security	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-18.0	-7.5
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	3377 count	2021	99.8	-0.2	-0.2
Scientific Articles	37368 count	2022	95.8	-4.1	-3.2
R&D Expenditure	1.45 % of GDP	2022	76.3	-11.7	-0.8
Women in Parliament	29.3 % seats	2023	52.1	-6.1	+8.6
INFORM Governance Index	4.20 0-10	2026	42.0	-14.0	+5.5
Legal Rights Strength	7.00 0-12	2019	41.7	-8.3	-8.3
Government Effectiveness	0.42 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	41.6	-10.1	+12.3
Rule of Law	0.46 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	40.8	-12.2	+12.2
Political Stability	0.56 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.8	-11.0	+0.8
Control of Corruption	0.57 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.7	-16.9	+4.1
Voice and Accountability	0.63 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	37.5	-11.4	+9.0
Regulatory Quality	0.78 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	34.4	-18.4	+3.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	-22.5	-16.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.10 0-10	2026	11.0	-9.0	-3.0
Physical Infrastructure	0.70 0-10	2026	7.0	-23.0	+6.0
Healthcare Access	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-32.0	-0.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	56.3	-38.4	-18.2
Education (Readiness)	0.45 0-1	2023	54.9	-18.1	0.0
Doing Business Score	0.47 0-1	2023	52.9	-5.5	+8.7
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.56 0-1	2023	44.5	-19.8	+4.7
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.59 0-1	2023	41.0	-10.5	+2.9
ICT Infrastructure	0.60 0-1	2023	40.3	-7.4	+7.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.60 0-1	2023	40.1	-11.9	+12.0
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.66 0-1	2023	34.1	-18.5	+3.0
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	33.4	-9.7	+0.7

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Poland?
Poland: low across the board; strong nature keeps overall risk contained. Its overall risk score is 39 out of 100 (low), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Poland's risk?
Poland's highest pressures are governance (52, medium) and climate (50). Its strongest area is nature (21).
How might Poland's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 90% of Poland's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Poland warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Poland is on track to warm by +3.8 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +16 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Poland's coast?
Coastal sea level along Poland is projected to rise by +0.86 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.63 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Poland?
The share of Poland under high water stress is projected to move from 14% today to 18% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Poland?
The share of Poland exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.3% today to 1.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Poland's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.