+4.0 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.1 °C → +4.0 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.4 °C → +2.7 °C
Hottest month +6.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Bulgaria Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Europe
- Subregion
- Eastern Europe
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- BGR
Bulgaria: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Bulgaria, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 43 / 100
5y
- 46 Climate Medium
- 33 Nature +2.2 Low
- 25 Social Low
- 58 Governance Medium
- 54 Adaptation -0.3 Medium
Which hazards threaten Bulgaria most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 5.1FloodMedium
- 3.5DRR capacityLow
Bulgaria in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
6
Eastern Europe
#6 of 10 · median 4335
Europe
#35 of 43 · median 3821
Upper middle income
#21 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Bulgaria: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Bulgaria is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -18 mm.
-18 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -13 mm → -18 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2 mm → 0 mm
Driest month -2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
30%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 30% → 30%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 30% → 30%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 30% today.
1%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.7% → 1%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.3% → 1.2%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.5% today.
Sea level
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.19 m → +0.61 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.17 m → +0.45 m
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Drought Index (SPEI) | 0.91 index | 81.1 |
Renewable Energy Share | 20.4 % of total energy | 78.8 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 22.2 % of total | 77.8 |
Energy Imports | 38.0 % of energy use | 71.9 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 68.8 % of total | 67.5 |
Flood Risk | 5.10 0-10 | 51.0 |
Land Surface Temperature | 19.6 deg C change | 49.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 43.1 % of total | 44.8 |
Heating Degree Days | 4735 degree days | 32.5 |
Energy Intensity | 4.72 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 29.2 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 2968 kg oil eq per capita | 17.4 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 5.21 metric tons | 16.5 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.66 kt CO2e per capita | 15.4 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 17.1 ug/m3 | 15.3 |
Cooling Degree Days | 765 degree days | 10.5 |
Methane Emissions Per Capita | 1.07 kt CO2e per capita | 8.1 |
Heat Index | 0.00 index | 0.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.95 0-1 | 95.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.88 0-1 | 88.1 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.85 0-1 | 85.1 |
Dam Capacity | 0.76 0-1 | 75.9 |
Urban Concentration | 0.75 0-1 | 74.9 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.73 0-1 | 72.5 |
Food Production Index | 101 index | 72.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 24.2 % of internal resources | 71.5 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.71 0-1 | 70.6 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.69 0-1 | 69.4 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.68 0-1 | 67.8 |
Protected Areas | 33.1 % of land | 66.6 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Earthquake Risk | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Forest Area | 36.1 % of land | 61.8 |
Agricultural Land | 46.3 % of land | 55.2 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.55 0-1 | 54.8 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.49 0-1 | 48.7 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.45 0-1 | 45.5 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.42 0-1 | 42.1 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.40 0-1 | 40.0 |
Water Bodies Extent | 65.6 % of land | 34.4 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.27 0-1 | 26.8 |
Rural Population | 0.25 0-1 | 25.1 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.24 0-1 | 24.4 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.22 0-1 | 22.3 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.22 0-1 | 21.7 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.21 0-1 | 20.7 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.19 0-1 | 18.9 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.17 0-1 | 17.4 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.16 0-1 | 16.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.16 0-1 | 16.2 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.10 0-1 | 9.8 |
Population Below 5m | 0.08 0-1 | 8.1 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 2.52 % of GDP | 7.0 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.06 0-1 | 6.1 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.04 0-1 | 4.4 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 8.00 count | 4.2 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.02 0-1 | 2.1 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.02 0-1 | 1.9 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.01 0-1 | 1.4 |
Paved Roads | 0.01 0-1 | 1.4 |
Water Stress | 37.5 % | 1.0 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 0.53 % of GNI | 0.9 |
Tree Cover Loss | 6684 hectares | 0.2 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Projected Population Change | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Education Expenditure | 10.6 % of govt | 77.3 |
Primary School Enrollment | 95.9 % gross | 68.0 |
Uprooted People | 6.60 0-10 | 66.0 |
School Gender Parity | 0.98 ratio | 64.5 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 6.20 % | 58.3 |
Aging Population | 21.8 % population | 58.2 |
Net Migration | 5173 persons | 55.2 |
Overweight Adults | 52.0 % adults | 51.7 |
GDP Growth | 1.89 % annual | 50.5 |
Gini Coefficient | 38.2 0-100 | 45.9 |
Hospital Beds | 7.77 per 1,000 | 39.5 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 20.6 % population | 33.1 |
Life Expectancy | 75.7 years | 28.8 |
Sanitation Access | 73.5 % population | 27.3 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.27 0-100 | 25.2 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 80.8 ratio F/M | 24.4 |
Labor Participation | 73.8 % (15+) | 23.0 |
Internet Users | 80.4 % population | 22.0 |
Fertility Rate | 1.81 births per woman | 20.1 |
Food Security | 1.80 0-10 | 18.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 4.32 % | 12.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Aid Dependency | 0.90 0-10 | 9.0 |
Safe Drinking Water | 95.7 % population | 4.6 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 6.10 per 1,000 | 4.1 |
Children Under 5 | 0.40 0-10 | 4.0 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 98.4 % | 2.5 |
Health Conditions | 0.20 0-10 | 2.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 2.21 % | 1.5 |
Population Density | 59.6 people/km2 | 0.3 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Undernourishment | 2.50 % population | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 7.07 % annual | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 165 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 4784 count | 99.5 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.75 % of GDP | 88.0 |
Women in Parliament | 24.2 % seats | 60.5 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.30 0-10 | 53.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.14 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.8 |
Rule of Law | -0.01 -2.5 to +2.5 | 50.1 |
Government Effectiveness | 0.05 -2.5 to +2.5 | 49.1 |
Political Stability | 0.34 -2.5 to +2.5 | 43.2 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.39 -2.5 to +2.5 | 42.2 |
Regulatory Quality | 0.41 -2.5 to +2.5 | 41.8 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 3.50 0-10 | 35.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 8.00 0-12 | 33.3 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.60 0-10 | 16.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 1.30 0-10 | 13.0 |
Healthcare Access | 0.40 0-10 | 4.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.11 0-1 | 88.5 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.39 0-1 | 60.7 |
Doing Business Score | 0.44 0-1 | 56.4 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.48 0-1 | 52.2 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.50 0-1 | 49.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.51 0-1 | 49.2 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.59 0-1 | 41.4 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.62 0-1 | 38.3 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.63 0-1 | 37.1 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Bulgaria →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Bulgaria.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Bulgaria?
Bulgaria: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Bulgaria's risk?
Bulgaria's highest pressures are governance (58, medium) and adaptation (54). Its strongest area is social (25).
How might Bulgaria's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 38% of Bulgaria's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Bulgaria warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Bulgaria is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -18 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Bulgaria's coast?
Coastal sea level along Bulgaria is projected to rise by +0.61 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.45 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Bulgaria?
The share of Bulgaria under high water stress is projected to move from 30% today to 30% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Bulgaria?
The share of Bulgaria exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Bulgaria's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.