Criora

Bulgaria

Region Europe Subregion Eastern Europe Income Upper middle income ISO BGR

Bulgaria sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Bulgaria, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
43 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    46 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    33 / 100
    ▲ + 2.2 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    25 / 100
  4. Governance
    Medium
    58 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    54 / 100
    ▼ -0.3 5y
Climate futures

Bulgaria: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Bulgaria is projected to warm +4.0 °C, with annual rainfall changing -18 mm.

Temperature

+4.0 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.1 °C → +4.0 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.4 °C → +2.7 °C

Hottest month +6.5 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-18 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-13 mm → -18 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2 mm → 0 mm

Driest month -2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.19 m → +0.61 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.17 m → +0.45 m

Water stress

30%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
30% → 30%
Current path SSP3-7.0
30% → 30%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 30% today.

River flooding

1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.7% → 1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.3% → 1.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.5% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Bulgaria.

Where exactly?

Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.

orpinpoint it on the map →
Pinpoint on the map Map of Bulgaria Open the map →
Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Bulgaria most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Medium
5.1 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.5 / 10
Peers

Bulgaria in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Europe
#6 of 10median 43
  1. 1CzechiaLow 37
  2. 2PolandLow 39
  3. 3BelarusMedium 41
  4. 4HungaryMedium 42
  5. 5SlovakiaMedium 42
  6. 6BulgariaMedium 43
  7. 7RomaniaMedium 44
  8. 8MoldovaMedium 46
  9. 9RussiaMedium 46
  10. 10UkraineMedium 48
region
Europe
#35 of 43median 38
  1. 31SlovakiaMedium 42
  2. 32GreeceMedium 43
  3. 33CroatiaMedium 43
  4. 34North MacedoniaMedium 43
  5. 35BulgariaMedium 43
  6. 36ItalyMedium 44
  7. 37RomaniaMedium 44
  8. 38AlbaniaMedium 45
  9. 39MoldovaMedium 46
  10. 40RussiaMedium 46
income group
Upper middle income
#21 of 53median 44
  1. 17CubaMedium 43
  2. 18TuvaluMedium 43
  3. 19North MacedoniaMedium 43
  4. 20ChinaMedium 43
  5. 21BulgariaMedium 43
  6. 22Costa RicaMedium 43
  7. 23ChileMedium 44
  8. 24JordanMedium 44
  9. 25PanamaMedium 44
  10. 26BotswanaMedium 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare Bulgaria against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare ↗ Score a site here
Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Bulgaria?
Bulgaria sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 43 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Bulgaria's risk?
Bulgaria's highest pressures are governance (58, medium) and adaptation (54). Its strongest area is social (25).
How might Bulgaria's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 38% of Bulgaria's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 75 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Bulgaria warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Bulgaria is on track to warm by +4.0 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -18 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Bulgaria's coast?
Coastal sea level along Bulgaria is projected to rise by +0.61 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.45 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Bulgaria?
The share of Bulgaria under high water stress is projected to move from 30% today to 30% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Bulgaria?
The share of Bulgaria exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Bulgaria's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.