+4.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.8 °C → +4.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.6 °C → +3.3 °C
Hottest month +6.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Ukraine Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Europe
- Subregion
- Eastern Europe
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- UKR
Ukraine: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Ukraine, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 49 / 100
5y
- 49 Climate Medium
- 27 Nature -0.5 Low
- 46 Social Medium
- 64 Governance High
- 59 Adaptation -0.5 Medium
Which hazards threaten Ukraine most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 6.1FloodHigh
- 4.4DRR capacityMedium
Ukraine in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
10
Eastern Europe
#10 of 10 · median 4342
Europe
#42 of 43 · median 3825
Lower middle income
#25 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Ukraine: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Ukraine is projected to warm +4.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +8 mm.
+8 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +4 mm → +8 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +20 mm → +14 mm
Driest month +2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
32%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 23% → 32%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 22% → 22%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 19% today.
0.8%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.9% → 0.8%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.9% → 1.2%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.6% today.
Sea level
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.20 m → +0.63 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.18 m → +0.46 m
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Renewable Energy Share | 8.90 % of total energy | 90.8 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 12.0 % of total | 88.0 |
Energy Imports | 23.6 % of energy use | 65.7 |
Flood Risk | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 61.9 % coast | 57.6 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 0.00 % of total | 50.0 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | -0.15 index | 47.7 |
Land Surface Temperature | 14.9 deg C change | 39.5 |
Heating Degree Days | 5363 degree days | 39.1 |
Energy Intensity | 6.89 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 32.9 |
Coal Electricity Share | 22.2 % of total | 22.4 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.64 kt CO2e per capita | 14.8 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 14.9 ug/m3 | 12.5 |
Cooling Degree Days | 921 degree days | 12.3 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 3.71 metric tons | 11.7 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 1508 kg oil eq per capita | 8.8 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 94.9 % population | 5.1 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.93 0-1 | 93.2 |
Food Production Index | 87.8 index | 84.3 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.83 0-1 | 82.5 |
Agricultural Land | 71.3 % of land | 82.4 |
Forest Area | 16.8 % of land | 82.3 |
Protected Areas | 17.7 % of land | 82.2 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.71 0-1 | 71.2 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.71 0-1 | 70.6 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.69 0-1 | 69.1 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.69 0-1 | 68.6 |
Urban Concentration | 0.68 0-1 | 67.8 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.67 0-1 | 66.7 |
Dam Capacity | 0.66 0-1 | 65.9 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.53 0-1 | 53.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 8.82 % of internal resources | 51.5 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.51 0-1 | 51.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.47 0-1 | 47.5 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.46 0-1 | 45.9 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.45 0-1 | 45.4 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.37 0-1 | 36.9 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.35 0-1 | 34.9 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.34 0-1 | 33.9 |
Rural Population | 0.32 0-1 | 32.2 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.28 0-1 | 28.4 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.27 0-1 | 27.3 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.25 0-1 | 25.2 |
Earthquake Risk | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.17 0-1 | 17.1 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 7.11 % of GDP | 16.8 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.16 0-1 | 16.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.15 0-1 | 14.7 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.14 0-1 | 14.4 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.13 0-1 | 12.6 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.10 0-1 | 9.6 |
Population Below 5m | 0.06 0-1 | 6.4 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.06 0-1 | 6.1 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 13.0 count | 6.1 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 2.43 % of GNI | 4.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.03 0-1 | 2.5 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.02 0-1 | 2.2 |
Paved Roads | 0.02 0-1 | 2.1 |
Tree Cover Loss | 80279 hectares | 1.5 |
Slum Population | 0.01 0-1 | 1.1 |
Water Stress | 6.30 % | 0.2 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Uprooted People | 10.0 0-10 | 100.0 |
Net Migration | 1146012 persons | 94.8 |
Aid Dependency | 8.10 0-10 | 81.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 93.3 % gross | 70.6 |
Education Expenditure | 12.7 % of govt | 68.7 |
Overweight Adults | 56.1 % adults | 56.9 |
Hospital Beds | 6.14 per 1,000 | 53.4 |
Aging Population | 19.0 % population | 50.1 |
GDP Growth | 5.53 % annual | 44.7 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 23.2 % population | 41.3 |
Food Security | 3.80 0-10 | 38.0 |
Life Expectancy | 74.7 years | 37.1 |
Labor Participation | 66.8 % (15+) | 32.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 76.0 ratio F/M | 29.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 9.83 % | 28.5 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 18.3 % | 24.6 |
Development and Deprivation | 2.40 0-10 | 24.0 |
Internet Users | 82.5 % population | 19.2 |
Safe Drinking Water | 87.9 % population | 12.9 |
Undernourishment | 6.90 % population | 8.5 |
Sanitation Access | 92.4 % population | 8.3 |
Health Conditions | 0.80 0-10 | 8.0 |
Children Under 5 | 0.60 0-10 | 6.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 7.90 per 1,000 | 5.8 |
Gini Coefficient | 25.6 0-100 | 5.3 |
Fertility Rate | 0.99 births per woman | 4.5 |
ESG Performance Score | 4.78 0-100 | 4.2 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 10.0 % | 3.9 |
Population Density | 65.1 people/km2 | 0.3 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 1302 count | 99.9 |
Scientific Articles | 13206 count | 98.5 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.37 % of GDP | 81.8 |
Political Stability | -1.43 -2.5 to +2.5 | 78.6 |
Rule of Law | -0.89 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.8 |
Women in Parliament | 21.1 % seats | 66.9 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.40 0-10 | 64.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.69 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.7 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.36 -2.5 to +2.5 | 57.1 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.27 -2.5 to +2.5 | 55.3 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.10 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 4.40 0-10 | 44.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 8.00 0-12 | 33.3 |
Healthcare Access | 2.30 0-10 | 23.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 1.40 0-10 | 14.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 1.30 0-10 | 13.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.14 0-1 | 85.9 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.27 0-1 | 73.3 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 67.6 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.33 0-1 | 66.6 |
Doing Business Score | 0.42 0-1 | 57.9 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.45 0-1 | 54.8 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.45 0-1 | 54.5 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.55 0-1 | 45.1 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.76 0-1 | 23.9 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Ukraine →But what about your location?
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Where exactly?
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Ukraine: ask your AI assistant
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- Ukraine: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
- Eastern Europe: which countries are most at risk?
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Ukraine?
Ukraine: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 49 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Ukraine's risk?
Ukraine's highest pressures are governance (64, high) and adaptation (59). Its strongest area is nature (27).
How might Ukraine's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 95% of Ukraine's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 71 to 74 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Ukraine warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Ukraine is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +8 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.3 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Ukraine's coast?
Coastal sea level along Ukraine is projected to rise by +0.63 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.46 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Ukraine?
The share of Ukraine under high water stress is projected to move from 19% today to 32% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Ukraine?
The share of Ukraine exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.6% today to 0.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Ukraine's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.