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Tunisia

Region Africa Subregion Northern Africa Income Upper middle income ISO TUN

Tunisia sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Tunisia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
46 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    36 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    44 / 100
    ▲ + 0.6 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    27 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    68 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    57 / 100
    ▼ -0.4 5y
Climate futures

Tunisia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Tunisia is projected to warm +3.7 °C, with annual rainfall changing -14 mm.

Temperature

+3.7 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.8 °C → +3.7 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.1 °C → +2.5 °C

Hottest month +5.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-14 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-5 mm → -14 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-4 mm → -8 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Tunisia: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.24 m → +0.76 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.21 m → +0.54 m

Water stress

55%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
54% → 55%
Current path SSP3-7.0
55% → 55%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 54% today.

River flooding

0.2%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.2% → 0.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.9% → 0.3%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.5% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Tunisia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
3.7 / 10
Peers

Tunisia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Northern Africa
#1 of 6median 50
  1. 1TunisiaMedium 46
  2. 2MoroccoMedium 48
  3. 3AlgeriaMedium 49
  4. 4LibyaMedium 51
  5. 5EgyptMedium 55
  6. 6SudanHigh 64
region
Africa
#8 of 54median 53
  1. 4South AfricaMedium 41
  2. 5São Tomé and PrincipeMedium 43
  3. 6BotswanaMedium 44
  4. 7RwandaMedium 45
  5. 8TunisiaMedium 46
  6. 9eSwatiniMedium 46
  7. 10NamibiaMedium 47
  8. 11MoroccoMedium 48
  9. 12GabonMedium 48
  10. 13LesothoMedium 48
income group
Upper middle income
#31 of 53median 44
  1. 27RomaniaMedium 44
  2. 28KazakhstanMedium 45
  3. 29MalaysiaMedium 45
  4. 30RussiaMedium 46
  5. 31TunisiaMedium 46
  6. 32SerbiaMedium 47
  7. 33NamibiaMedium 47
  8. 34GabonMedium 48
  9. 35BrazilMedium 48
  10. 36Dominican Rep.Medium 48

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Tunisia?
Tunisia sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 46 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Tunisia's risk?
Tunisia's highest pressures are governance (68, high) and adaptation (57). Its strongest area is social (27).
How might Tunisia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 6% of Tunisia's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Tunisia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tunisia is on track to warm by +3.7 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -14 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Tunisia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Tunisia is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Tunisia?
The share of Tunisia under high water stress is projected to move from 54% today to 55% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Tunisia?
The share of Tunisia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 0.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Tunisia's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.