+3.7 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.8 °C → +3.7 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.1 °C → +2.5 °C
Hottest month +5.4 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Tunisia Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Northern Africa
- Income
- Upper middle income
- ISO
- TUN
Tunisia: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Tunisia, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 47 / 100
5y
- 36 Climate Low
- 44 Nature +0.6 Medium
- 28 Social Low
- 68 Governance High
- 57 Adaptation -0.4 Medium
Which hazards threaten Tunisia most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 3.7FloodLow
Tunisia in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
1
Northern Africa
#1 of 6 · median 5110
Africa
#10 of 54 · median 5332
Upper middle income
#32 of 53 · median 44Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Tunisia: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Tunisia is projected to warm +3.7 °C, with annual rainfall changing -14 mm.
-14 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -5 mm → -14 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -4 mm → -8 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
55%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 54% → 55%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 55% → 55%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 54% today.
0.2%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0.2% → 0.2%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0.9% → 0.3%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.5% today.
Sea level
Tunisia: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.24 m → +0.76 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.21 m → +0.54 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Renewable Electricity Share | 2.82 % of total | 97.2 |
Renewable Energy Share | 11.6 % of total energy | 88.0 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 86.8 % of total | 86.3 |
Land Surface Temperature | 32.8 deg C change | 76.3 |
Energy Imports | 53.1 % of energy use | 73.1 |
Cooling Degree Days | 2997 degree days | 41.0 |
Flood Risk | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 24.2 ug/m3 | 24.0 |
Energy Intensity | 3.70 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 21.3 |
Heating Degree Days | 1326 degree days | 9.1 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 2.45 metric tons | 7.7 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.28 kt CO2e per capita | 6.4 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 956 kg oil eq per capita | 5.3 |
Heat Index | 2.44 index | 1.8 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 99.9 % population | 0.1 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Forest Area | 4.54 % of land | 95.2 |
Protected Areas | 5.20 % of land | 94.8 |
Dam Capacity | 0.94 0-1 | 94.4 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.91 0-1 | 91.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 92.1 % of internal resources | 89.5 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.89 0-1 | 89.2 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.79 0-1 | 78.9 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.74 0-1 | 74.4 |
Agricultural Land | 62.4 % of land | 73.7 |
Urban Concentration | 0.68 0-1 | 68.3 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.65 0-1 | 65.4 |
Food Production Index | 110 index | 63.8 |
Tsunami Risk | 5.90 0-10 | 59.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.57 0-1 | 57.2 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.56 0-1 | 56.5 |
Earthquake Risk | 5.40 0-10 | 54.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.54 0-1 | 54.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.49 0-1 | 49.0 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.48 0-1 | 47.8 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.44 0-1 | 43.7 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.42 0-1 | 41.9 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.38 0-1 | 38.1 |
Rural Population | 0.32 0-1 | 31.7 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.31 0-1 | 30.6 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.26 0-1 | 26.1 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 9.33 % of GDP | 26.0 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.24 0-1 | 24.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.24 0-1 | 23.9 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.21 0-1 | 21.2 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.21 0-1 | 20.8 |
Projected Population Change | 0.20 0-1 | 19.5 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.19 0-1 | 19.1 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.17 0-1 | 16.5 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.15 0-1 | 15.2 |
Water Bodies Extent | 84.9 % of land | 15.1 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.15 0-1 | 14.7 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.14 0-1 | 14.5 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.12 0-1 | 11.7 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.09 0-1 | 9.1 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.09 0-1 | 8.7 |
Slum Population | 0.08 0-1 | 7.7 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 14.0 count | 7.3 |
Water Stress | 98.1 % | 2.5 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 1.38 % of GNI | 2.4 |
Forest Depletion | 0.21 % of GNI | 1.2 |
Tree Cover Loss | 2079 hectares | 0.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 2.42 per 1,000 | 83.4 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 40.8 ratio F/M | 65.6 |
Overweight Adults | 57.4 % adults | 58.5 |
Labor Participation | 51.2 % (15+) | 57.6 |
Net Migration | -14001 persons | 54.6 |
GDP Growth | 0.04 % annual | 53.4 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | 1.03 % annual | 45.3 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 16.5 % | 43.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 15.1 % | 42.8 |
Primary School Enrollment | 104 % gross | 37.6 |
Aid Dependency | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.70 % | 35.2 |
Uprooted People | 3.30 0-10 | 33.0 |
Internet Users | 72.4 % population | 31.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 33.7 0-100 | 31.0 |
Life Expectancy | 76.5 years | 30.9 |
Education Expenditure | 18.1 % of govt | 30.1 |
Safe Drinking Water | 74.3 % population | 27.4 |
Development and Deprivation | 2.60 0-10 | 26.0 |
Aging Population | 9.17 % population | 21.8 |
Fertility Rate | 1.83 births per woman | 20.5 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 85.2 % | 20.3 |
Sanitation Access | 81.1 % population | 19.4 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.35 0-100 | 19.0 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 16.6 % population | 18.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 12.9 per 1,000 | 10.1 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 7.14 % | 9.2 |
Children Under 5 | 0.70 0-10 | 7.0 |
Food Security | 0.40 0-10 | 4.0 |
Health Conditions | 0.30 0-10 | 3.0 |
Undernourishment | 3.20 % population | 1.4 |
Population Density | 78.0 people/km2 | 0.4 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 180 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 5730 count | 99.4 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.75 % of GDP | 87.7 |
Legal Rights Strength | 3.00 0-12 | 75.0 |
Women in Parliament | 16.2 % seats | 73.5 |
Political Stability | -0.63 -2.5 to +2.5 | 62.6 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.62 -2.5 to +2.5 | 62.4 |
INFORM Governance Index | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.34 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.8 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.30 -2.5 to +2.5 | 56.0 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.21 -2.5 to +2.5 | 54.3 |
Rule of Law | -0.14 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.8 |
Healthcare Access | 3.50 0-10 | 35.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 2.50 0-10 | 25.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 2.40 0-10 | 24.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.07 0-1 | 92.7 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.23 0-1 | 77.0 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.35 0-1 | 65.4 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.38 0-1 | 61.8 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.46 0-1 | 53.9 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.48 0-1 | 51.8 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.51 0-1 | 49.3 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.52 0-1 | 48.3 |
Doing Business Score | 0.53 0-1 | 46.6 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Tunisia →But what about your location?
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Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Tunisia?
Tunisia: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 47 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Tunisia's risk?
Tunisia's highest pressures are governance (68, high) and adaptation (57). Its strongest area is social (28).
How might Tunisia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 6% of Tunisia's land shifts toward a drier, more arid zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Tunisia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tunisia is on track to warm by +3.7 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -14 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Tunisia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Tunisia is projected to rise by +0.76 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.54 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Tunisia?
The share of Tunisia under high water stress is projected to move from 54% today to 55% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Tunisia?
The share of Tunisia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.5% today to 0.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Tunisia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.