Libya: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 52 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Libya's risk?

Libya's highest pressures are governance (82, critical) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is climate (24).

How might Libya's climate change by 2080?

Libya's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Libya warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Libya is on track to warm by +3.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -1 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Libya's coast?

Coastal sea level along Libya is projected to rise by +0.77 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Libya?

The share of Libya under high water stress is projected to move from 4.2% today to 5.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Libya?

The share of Libya exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Libya's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Libya Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Africa
Subregion: Northern Africa
Income: Upper middle income
ISO: LBY

Libya: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Libya, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 52 / 100

24 Climate Low
41 Nature -0.5 Medium
44 Social Medium
82 Governance Critical
70 Adaptation -1.6 High

Which hazards threaten Libya most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.6FloodVery low

Libya in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Northern Africa

#4 of 6 · median 51

Africa

#21 of 54 · median 53

Upper middle income

#45 of 53 · median 44

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Libya: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Libya is projected to warm +3.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing -1 mm.

+3.9 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.0 °C → +3.9 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.2 °C → +2.5 °C

Hottest month +4.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-1 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0 mm → -1 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0 mm → 0 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

5.2%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 4.3% → 5.2%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 4.2% → 5.2%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4.2% today.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0% → 0%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Sea level

Libya: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 4 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.25 m → +0.77 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.22 m → +0.55 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Electricity Share	0.02 % of total	2021	100.0	+24.9	+24.7
Renewable Energy Share	3.10 % of total energy	2021	96.8	+21.4	+66.2
Fossil Fuel Consumption	96.3 % of total	2022	96.1	+23.4	+64.9
Land Surface Temperature	36.7 deg C change	2021	84.3	+19.6	+9.5
Cooling Degree Days	3879 degree days	2020	53.1	+1.3	-13.1
Energy Imports	-250 % of energy use	2022	48.8	-22.3	-20.8
PM2.5 Air Pollution	33.0 ug/m3	2020	35.0	+15.8	+0.8
Energy Intensity	5.26 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	23.7	+7.1	+0.8
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	6.31 metric tons	2020	20.1	+12.4	+19.0
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.87 index	2021	19.2	-27.2	-25.1
Energy Use Per Capita	2539 kg oil eq per capita	2022	14.9	+6.6	+12.8
Heating Degree Days	1065 degree days	2020	7.3	+5.8	+7.2
Flood Risk	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-46.0	-41.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.26 kt CO2e per capita	2020	6.0	-1.0	-0.4
Heat Index	0.15 index	2020	0.1	+0.1	-1.7
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+92.5	+95.1
Forest Area	0.12 % of land	2022	99.9	+33.6	+22.5
Protected Areas	0.20 % of land	2023	99.8	+10.9	+10.9
Dam Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	98.6	+5.3	+3.8
Freshwater Withdrawal	817 % of internal resources	2021	97.1	+46.8	+55.5
Agricultural Capacity	0.96 0-1	2023	96.1	+4.3	-1.9
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.85 0-1	2023	84.6	+22.4	+15.4
Urban Concentration	0.80 0-1	2023	80.2	+22.8	+38.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.79 0-1	2023	78.9	+2.6	-1.3
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.77 0-1	2023	77.0	+37.8	-3.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.72 0-1	2023	71.5	-12.7	-24.7
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.68 0-1	2023	68.4	+31.2	+38.7
Food Production Index	106 index	2022	67.4	+0.3	+8.4
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	-6.5
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.60 0-1	2023	59.9	-26.6	-33.0
Tsunami Risk	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	+43.0	+54.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.49 0-1	2023	49.4	+8.4	-15.2
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.47 0-1	2023	47.1	-10.5	-7.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.46 0-1	2023	45.8	-7.0	-25.5
Paved Roads	0.43 0-1	2023	43.3	-11.8	-37.4
Population Below 5m	0.41 0-1	2023	41.3	+26.5	+31.0
Food Import Dependency	0.34 0-1	2023	34.1	+12.4	+4.5
Natural Capital Dependency	0.33 0-1	2023	33.5	+11.7	+14.0
Electricity Access	0.27 0-1	2023	27.1	+27.1	-14.1
Natural Resource Depletion	13.6 % of GNI	2021	23.7	+21.6	+16.2
Projected Warm Period Change	0.23 0-1	2023	23.0	-44.8	-46.1
Water Stress	817 %	2021	21.2	+20.9	+21.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.21 0-1	2023	21.2	-9.1	-12.1
Projected Population Change	0.21 0-1	2023	20.7	-1.6	-26.8
Rural Population	0.20 0-1	2023	19.8	-22.8	-38.0
Child Malnutrition	0.14 0-1	2023	14.5	+0.7	-6.6
Earthquake Risk	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-21.0	+13.0
Agricultural Land	8.72 % of land	2022	9.8	-37.5	-45.7
Dependency Ratio	0.06 0-1	2023	6.0	-0.8	-59.7
Threatened Mammal Species	10.0 count	2018	5.2	0.0	-3.2
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.05 0-1	2023	5.1	-13.3	-16.7
Agriculture GDP Share	1.77 % of GDP	2023	4.9	-14.0	-46.4
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.04 0-1	2023	3.7	-9.8	-1.5
Forest Depletion	0.08 % of GNI	2021	0.4	+0.3	-8.8
Tree Cover Loss	1.00 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.1
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-39.6	-35.2
Projected Groundwater Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-26.2	-28.2
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-19.8
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-13.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Uprooted People	9.10 0-10	2026	91.0	+32.0	+33.0
Sanitation Access	23.8 % population	2022	78.3	+38.3	-6.5
Hospital Beds	3.20 per 1,000	2021	77.1	-6.8	-10.5
Overweight Adults	67.6 % adults	2022	71.4	+15.4	+42.7
Recent Shocks	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+56.0	+51.0
Labor Participation	51.9 % (15+)	2023	56.6	+26.5	+19.7
Net Migration	-2001 persons	2023	55.0	0.0	+0.1
Gender Labor Ratio	52.2 ratio F/M	2023	53.9	+26.9	+30.0
Life Expectancy	69.3 years	2023	53.4	+13.9	-12.0
Unemployment Rate	18.8 %	2023	53.3	+39.1	+37.7
Food Security	4.60 0-10	2026	46.0	+28.0	-1.0
GDP Growth	10.2 % annual	2023	37.4	-11.5	-9.4
ESG Performance Score	2.12 0-100	2018	36.1	+11.1	-14.6
Development and Deprivation	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	+4.0	-43.5
Fertility Rate	2.35 births per woman	2023	30.2	+6.9	-29.5
Aid Dependency	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+4.0	-11.5
Access to Electricity	73.2 % population	2023	28.3	+28.3	-16.8
Under-5 Mortality Rate	30.8 per 1,000	2023	25.9	+13.7	-13.9
Undernourishment	11.4 % population	2022	18.2	+12.4	-11.3
Communicable Disease Deaths	10.4 %	2019	14.3	-1.8	-61.4
Internet Users	88.5 % population	2023	12.9	-8.0	-55.9
Aging Population	4.88 % population	2023	9.5	-6.9	+4.8
Children Under 5	0.90 0-10	2026	9.0	-2.0	-27.5
Health Conditions	0.50 0-10	2026	5.0	-3.0	-31.0
Population Density	4.11 people/km2	2022	0.0	-0.5	-0.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Legal Rights Strength	0.00 0-12	2019	100.0	+50.0	+50.0
Scientific Articles	408 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Political Stability	-2.17 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	93.4	+43.6	+33.1
Regulatory Quality	-1.95 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	88.9	+36.2	+23.5
Rule of Law	-1.77 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	85.4	+32.5	+21.2
INFORM Governance Index	8.30 0-10	2026	83.0	+27.0	+16.5
Government Effectiveness	-1.64 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	82.7	+31.0	+16.2
Control of Corruption	-1.53 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	80.5	+24.9	+15.5
Voice and Accountability	-1.39 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	77.8	+28.9	+13.9
Women in Parliament	16.5 % seats	2023	73.1	+14.9	+11.1
Physical Infrastructure	3.90 0-10	2026	39.0	+9.0	-28.0
Healthcare Access	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	0.0	-28.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.50 0-10	2026	15.0	-5.0	-35.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.01 0-1	2023	98.9	+4.2	-0.6
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.07 0-1	2023	92.6	+28.3	+19.5
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.12 0-1	2023	88.1	+35.5	+23.9
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.16 0-1	2023	83.9	+32.0	+21.3
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.20 0-1	2023	80.3	+37.2	+28.5
Education (Readiness)	0.37 0-1	2023	63.1	-9.9	-31.1
Doing Business Score	0.47 0-1	2023	53.2	-5.2	-16.2
ICT Infrastructure	0.52 0-1	2023	47.9	+0.2	-16.4

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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But what about your location?

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Libya?
Libya: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 52 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Libya's risk?
Libya's highest pressures are governance (82, critical) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is climate (24).
How might Libya's climate change by 2080?
Libya's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Libya warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Libya is on track to warm by +3.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -1 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.5 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Libya's coast?
Coastal sea level along Libya is projected to rise by +0.77 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.55 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Libya?
The share of Libya under high water stress is projected to move from 4.2% today to 5.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Libya?
The share of Libya exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Libya's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.