Criora

El Salvador

Region Americas Subregion Central America Income Lower middle income ISO SLV

El Salvador sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is El Salvador, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
51 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Low
    32 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    52 / 100
    ▲ + 0.5 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    41 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    63 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    65 / 100
    ▼ -2.3 5y
Climate futures

El Salvador: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, El Salvador is projected to warm +3.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing -142 mm.

Temperature

+3.1 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.1 °C → +3.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.7 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +3.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-142 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-67 mm → -142 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-47 mm → -76 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

El Salvador: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.25 m → +0.79 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.59 m

Water stress

26%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
21% → 26%
Current path SSP3-7.0
26% → 76%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 21% today.

River flooding

2.2%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
6.8% → 2.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
6.4% → 6.5%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.6% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten El Salvador most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Low
3.5 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.0 / 10
Peers

El Salvador in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Central America
#4 of 8median 52
  1. 1Costa RicaMedium 43
  2. 2BelizeMedium 43
  3. 3PanamaMedium 44
  4. 4El SalvadorMedium 51
  5. 5NicaraguaMedium 53
  6. 6MexicoMedium 53
  7. 7GuatemalaMedium 54
  8. 8HondurasMedium 57
region
Americas
#25 of 35median 44
  1. 21Dominican Rep.Medium 48
  2. 22ArgentinaMedium 49
  3. 23GuyanaMedium 50
  4. 24SurinameMedium 50
  5. 25El SalvadorMedium 51
  6. 26BoliviaMedium 51
  7. 27ColombiaMedium 52
  8. 28PeruMedium 52
  9. 29NicaraguaMedium 53
  10. 30MexicoMedium 53
income group
Lower middle income
#30 of 53median 49
  1. 26VanuatuMedium 48
  2. 27GhanaMedium 49
  3. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
  4. 29GuyanaMedium 50
  5. 30El SalvadorMedium 51
  6. 31VietnamMedium 51
  7. 32BoliviaMedium 51
  8. 33DjiboutiMedium 52
  9. 34LaosMedium 52
  10. 35Côte d'IvoireMedium 53

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is El Salvador?
El Salvador sits mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 51 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives El Salvador's risk?
El Salvador's highest pressures are adaptation (65, high) and governance (63). Its strongest area is climate (32).
How might El Salvador's climate change by 2080?
El Salvador's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will El Salvador warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), El Salvador is on track to warm by +3.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -142 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along El Salvador's coast?
Coastal sea level along El Salvador is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in El Salvador?
The share of El Salvador under high water stress is projected to move from 21% today to 26% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in El Salvador?
The share of El Salvador exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.6% today to 2.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was El Salvador's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.