What drives El Salvador's risk?

El Salvador's highest pressures are adaptation (65, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is climate (32).

How might El Salvador's climate change by 2080?

El Salvador's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will El Salvador warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), El Salvador is on track to warm by +3.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -142 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along El Salvador's coast?

Coastal sea level along El Salvador is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in El Salvador?

The share of El Salvador under high water stress is projected to move from 21% today to 26% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in El Salvador?

The share of El Salvador exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.6% today to 2.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was El Salvador's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

El Salvador Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Central America
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: SLV

El Salvador: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is El Salvador, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 51 / 100

32 Climate Low
52 Nature +0.5 Medium
41 Social Medium
64 Governance High
65 Adaptation -2.3 High

Which hazards threaten El Salvador most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

3.5FloodLow
3.0DRR capacityLow

El Salvador in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central America

#4 of 8 · median 52

Americas

#25 of 35 · median 44

Lower middle income

#30 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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El Salvador: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, El Salvador is projected to warm +3.1 °C, with annual rainfall changing -142 mm.

+3.1 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.1 °C → +3.1 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.7 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +3.6 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-142 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -67 mm → -142 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -47 mm → -76 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

26%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 21% → 26%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 26% → 76%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 21% today.

2.2%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 6.8% → 2.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 6.4% → 6.5%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.6% today.

Sea level

El Salvador: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.25 m → +0.79 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.22 m → +0.59 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	21.9 % of total energy	2021	77.3	+1.9	-3.1
Energy Imports	59.5 % of energy use	2022	73.6	+2.5	+3.4
Land Surface Temperature	31.2 deg C change	2021	73.0	+8.3	+7.7
Cooling Degree Days	5213 degree days	2020	71.4	+19.6	+5.3
Fossil Fuel Consumption	55.5 % of total	2022	53.6	-19.1	-22.3
Coastal Protection Needed	62.8 % coast	2020	51.7	-32.6	-17.6
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.56 index	2021	45.0	-1.4	+2.0
Flood Risk	3.50 0-10	2026	35.0	-17.0	-7.0
PM2.5 Air Pollution	20.0 ug/m3	2020	18.9	-0.3	+0.3
Energy Intensity	3.26 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	12.3	-4.3	-0.7
Access to Clean Fuels	93.8 % population	2022	6.2	-4.0	+0.7
Renewable Electricity Share	95.6 % of total	2021	4.4	-70.7	-63.7
Energy Use Per Capita	769 kg oil eq per capita	2022	4.2	-4.1	-1.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.16 kt CO2e per capita	2020	3.8	-3.2	-3.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	1.02 metric tons	2020	3.2	-4.5	-3.7
Heat Index	2.88 index	2020	2.1	+2.1	+1.9
Heating Degree Days	0.01 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.98 0-1	2023	98.1	+11.6	+4.0
Protected Areas	2.10 % of land	2023	97.9	+9.0	+7.9
Earthquake Risk	9.20 0-10	2026	92.0	+57.0	+33.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.88 0-1	2023	88.3	+4.1	+6.0
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.86 0-1	2023	86.1	+48.8	+39.3
Dam Capacity	0.84 0-1	2023	84.4	-8.9	-2.1
Agricultural Capacity	0.80 0-1	2023	79.5	-12.3	-11.5
Tsunami Risk	7.60 0-10	2026	76.0	+65.0	+39.0
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.76 0-1	2023	75.7	-0.6	+0.8
Urban Concentration	0.73 0-1	2023	73.5	+16.1	+6.4
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.72 0-1	2023	71.8	+9.6	+10.3
Forest Area	27.7 % of land	2022	70.6	+4.3	+18.0
Food Production Index	103 index	2022	70.3	+3.2	0.0
Agricultural Land	57.7 % of land	2022	68.1	+20.8	+33.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.65 0-1	2023	64.7	+7.1	+8.8
Energy Import Dependency	0.60 0-1	2023	59.5	+33.8	+44.0
Freshwater Withdrawal	13.6 % of internal resources	2021	57.6	+7.3	+21.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.50 0-1	2023	49.7	+10.1	+0.3
Paved Roads	0.47 0-1	2023	47.3	-7.8	-19.7
Age Dependency Ratio	0.47 0-1	2023	46.8	-6.0	0.0
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	43.1	-0.6	-0.1
Protected Biome Areas	0.43 0-1	2023	42.9	+1.9	+7.1
Water Dependency Ratio	0.41 0-1	2023	40.5	+33.6	+38.6
Water Bodies Extent	59.7 % of land	2020	40.3	+18.7	+8.4
Projected Warm Period Change	0.40 0-1	2023	40.0	-27.8	-12.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.35 0-1	2023	35.4	+17.0	+1.7
Food Import Dependency	0.31 0-1	2023	31.4	+9.7	+6.3
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	0.0
Rural Population	0.27 0-1	2023	26.5	-16.1	-6.4
Natural Capital Dependency	0.26 0-1	2023	26.4	+4.6	+6.2
Projected Groundwater Change	0.23 0-1	2023	22.9	-3.3	+1.0
Slum Population	0.17 0-1	2023	16.6	+0.1	+1.1
Ecological Footprint	0.15 0-1	2023	15.4	-7.2	-6.5
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.15 0-1	2023	14.6	+1.1	-3.3
Projected Population Change	0.12 0-1	2023	12.4	-9.9	-7.6
Agriculture GDP Share	4.45 % of GDP	2023	12.4	-6.5	-4.1
Child Malnutrition	0.12 0-1	2023	12.0	-1.8	+4.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.12 0-1	2023	11.6	+4.1	+8.2
Population Below 5m	0.05 0-1	2023	5.2	-9.6	-8.9
Dependency Ratio	0.04 0-1	2023	3.8	-3.0	+2.3
Forest Depletion	0.57 % of GNI	2021	3.2	+3.1	+3.2
Threatened Mammal Species	6.00 count	2018	3.1	-2.1	-2.1
Electricity Access	0.02 0-1	2023	1.7	+1.7	+1.5
Natural Resource Depletion	0.57 % of GNI	2021	1.0	-1.1	-1.4
Water Stress	13.2 %	2021	0.3	0.0	+0.1
Tree Cover Loss	1489 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.16 per 1,000	2021	93.5	+9.6	+6.4
Education Expenditure	12.0 % of govt	2021	72.6	+2.6	+9.8
Overweight Adults	66.2 % adults	2022	69.5	+13.5	+3.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	5.60 %	2023	63.9	-1.7	-8.2
Uprooted People	6.30 0-10	2026	63.0	+4.0	+3.0
Aid Dependency	5.60 0-10	2026	56.0	+31.0	+31.0
Net Migration	-23253 persons	2023	54.3	-0.7	-0.7
Development and Deprivation	5.00 0-10	2026	50.0	+20.0	+21.0
GDP Growth	3.54 % annual	2023	47.9	-1.0	-0.9
Gini Coefficient	39.8 0-100	2023	47.2	-4.1	-17.2
Primary School Enrollment	91.1 % gross	2023	47.0	+5.0	+3.5
Poverty Rate (National)	26.6 % population	2022	45.0	+12.5	0.0
Gender Labor Ratio	60.8 ratio F/M	2023	45.0	+18.0	+10.9
Life Expectancy	72.1 years	2023	44.7	+5.3	+8.9
Unmet Contraception Need	17.7 %	2021	43.7	-3.6	+21.9
Adult Literacy Rate	90.0 %	2023	43.5	+21.8	0.0
Labor Participation	64.6 % (15+)	2023	37.0	+6.9	+6.8
Internet Users	67.7 % population	2023	36.3	+15.4	+12.0
ESG Performance Score	2.23 0-100	2018	27.9	+2.9	+3.4
Communicable Disease Deaths	15.8 %	2019	22.7	+6.6	+6.2
Fertility Rate	1.77 births per woman	2023	19.5	-3.8	+1.3
Aging Population	8.00 % population	2023	18.5	+2.1	-3.8
Food Security	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	-1.0	-1.0
Health Conditions	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	+5.0	+5.0
Children Under 5	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-1.0	0.0
Undernourishment	6.80 % population	2022	8.8	+3.0	+4.3
Unemployment Rate	2.99 %	2023	8.2	-6.0	-8.8
Under-5 Mortality Rate	10.4 per 1,000	2023	7.9	-4.3	-2.7
Access to Electricity	98.3 % population	2023	1.8	+1.8	+1.6
Population Density	303 people/km2	2022	1.6	+1.1	+1.3
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	-5.0
Shared Prosperity Growth	3.62 % annual	2023	0.6	-53.3	-55.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	2.00 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	54.8 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
R&D Expenditure	0.14 % of GDP	2022	98.2	+10.2	+2.6
INFORM Governance Index	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+6.0	+6.0
Control of Corruption	-0.56 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	61.2	+5.6	+4.0
Voice and Accountability	-0.47 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	59.5	+10.6	+20.2
Rule of Law	-0.37 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	57.4	+4.4	+1.2
Regulatory Quality	-0.31 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	56.2	+3.5	+6.3
Women in Parliament	27.4 % seats	2023	55.3	-2.9	+2.4
Political Stability	0.00 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	50.0	+0.2	+4.3
Government Effectiveness	0.05 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	49.0	-2.7	-2.5
Healthcare Access	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	-3.0	+5.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	-11.5	-7.0
Physical Infrastructure	2.60 0-10	2026	26.0	-4.0	-3.0
Legal Rights Strength	9.00 0-12	2019	25.0	-25.0	-33.3
Communication Infrastructure	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	-3.0	-3.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.00 0-1	2023	99.9	+5.2	+2.1
Education (Readiness)	0.19 0-1	2023	80.8	+7.8	+11.8
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.30 0-1	2023	70.4	+6.1	+4.6
Doing Business Score	0.34 0-1	2023	65.9	+7.5	+4.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.43 0-1	2023	57.5	+6.0	-10.8
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	56.4	+4.4	+1.2
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	55.6	+3.0	+6.2
ICT Infrastructure	0.49 0-1	2023	51.1	+3.4	+6.2
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.57 0-1	2023	43.0	-0.1	+3.7

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is El Salvador?
El Salvador: mid-pack overall, with adaptation the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 51 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives El Salvador's risk?
El Salvador's highest pressures are adaptation (65, high) and governance (64). Its strongest area is climate (32).
How might El Salvador's climate change by 2080?
El Salvador's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will El Salvador warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), El Salvador is on track to warm by +3.1 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -142 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along El Salvador's coast?
Coastal sea level along El Salvador is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in El Salvador?
The share of El Salvador under high water stress is projected to move from 21% today to 26% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in El Salvador?
The share of El Salvador exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.6% today to 2.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was El Salvador's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.