What drives Guatemala's risk?

Guatemala's highest pressures are governance (70, high) and adaptation (68). Its strongest area is climate (37).

How might Guatemala's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Guatemala's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Guatemala warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Guatemala is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -276 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Guatemala's coast?

Coastal sea level along Guatemala is projected to rise by +0.94 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.76 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Guatemala?

The share of Guatemala under high water stress is projected to move from 0.2% today to 1.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Guatemala?

The share of Guatemala exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 1.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Guatemala's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Guatemala Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Americas
Subregion: Central America
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: GTM

Guatemala: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Guatemala, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 55 / 100

37 Climate Low
49 Nature +0.0 Medium
51 Social Medium
70 Governance High
68 Adaptation -1.0 High

Which hazards threaten Guatemala most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

4.2FloodMedium
3.7DRR capacityLow

Guatemala in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central America

#7 of 8 · median 52

Americas

#31 of 35 · median 44

Lower middle income

#40 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Guatemala: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Guatemala is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing -276 mm.

+3.3 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.8 °C → +2.2 °C

Hottest month +3.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-276 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -142 mm → -276 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -91 mm → -94 mm

Driest month -5 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

1.2%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.2% → 1.2%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 1.2% → 25%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0.2% today.

1.6%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 4% → 1.6%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 3.4% → 1.5%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.1% today.

Sea level

Guatemala: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.32 m → +0.94 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.31 m → +0.76 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	96.6 % coast	2020	95.6	+11.3	+26.3
Energy Imports	38.4 % of energy use	2022	71.9	+0.8	+1.8
Land Surface Temperature	27.8 deg C change	2021	66.0	+1.3	+0.7
Access to Clean Fuels	46.2 % population	2022	53.8	+43.5	+48.3
Cooling Degree Days	3783 degree days	2020	51.8	0.0	-14.3
Flood Risk	4.20 0-10	2026	42.0	-10.0	0.0
Renewable Electricity Share	60.7 % of total	2021	39.3	-35.8	-28.8
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.92 index	2021	37.9	-8.5	-5.1
Renewable Energy Share	62.1 % of total energy	2021	35.5	-39.9	-44.9
Fossil Fuel Consumption	34.6 % of total	2022	31.9	-40.8	-44.0
PM2.5 Air Pollution	21.6 ug/m3	2020	20.9	+1.7	+2.3
Energy Intensity	4.42 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	18.9	+2.3	+5.9
Coal Electricity Share	9.58 % of total	2022	10.0	-6.7	+3.8
Heat Index	10.2 index	2020	7.5	+7.5	+7.3
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.30 kt CO2e per capita	2020	7.0	0.0	-0.2
Energy Use Per Capita	888 kg oil eq per capita	2022	4.9	-3.4	-0.8
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.97 metric tons	2020	3.0	-4.7	-3.9
Heating Degree Days	111 degree days	2020	0.8	-0.6	+0.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+53.2
Dam Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	99.3	+6.0	+12.8
Earthquake Risk	9.50 0-10	2026	95.0	+60.0	+36.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.94 0-1	2023	94.1	+7.6	0.0
Protected Areas	10.1 % of land	2023	89.8	+0.9	-0.2
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.89 0-1	2023	88.7	+4.5	+6.4
Ecological Footprint	0.78 0-1	2023	78.1	+55.5	+56.2
Tsunami Risk	6.80 0-10	2026	68.0	+57.0	+31.0
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+4.6	+5.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	66.3	+0.5	+0.5
Food Production Index	108 index	2022	65.4	-1.7	-4.9
Forest Area	32.7 % of land	2022	65.4	-0.9	+12.8
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.65 0-1	2023	65.2	-11.1	-9.7
Agricultural Capacity	0.61 0-1	2023	61.4	-30.4	-29.6
Age Dependency Ratio	0.56 0-1	2023	56.0	+3.3	+9.2
Paved Roads	0.56 0-1	2023	55.6	+0.6	-11.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.55 0-1	2023	55.3	-2.3	-0.6
Projected Warm Period Change	0.51 0-1	2023	51.2	-16.5	-0.8
Agricultural Land	43.0 % of land	2022	50.6	+3.3	+16.2
Rural Population	0.51 0-1	2023	50.5	+7.9	+17.6
Urban Concentration	0.49 0-1	2023	49.5	-7.9	-17.6
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.44 0-1	2023	44.3	+23.9	+9.9
Projected Hydropower Change	0.43 0-1	2023	43.1	-0.6	-0.1
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.41 0-1	2023	41.0	+1.4	-8.4
Protected Biome Areas	0.41 0-1	2023	40.8	-0.2	+5.0
Projected Population Change	0.38 0-1	2023	38.1	+15.8	+18.1
Energy Import Dependency	0.38 0-1	2023	38.1	+12.4	+22.6
Slum Population	0.38 0-1	2023	37.9	+21.4	+22.3
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.36 0-1	2023	36.4	+6.1	+6.1
Freshwater Withdrawal	3.04 % of internal resources	2021	32.6	-17.7	-4.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.30 0-1	2023	30.0	0.0	+5.0
Agriculture GDP Share	9.69 % of GDP	2023	26.9	+8.0	+10.4
Food Import Dependency	0.27 0-1	2023	26.6	+4.9	+1.5
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.25 0-1	2023	25.1	+6.8	-8.6
Natural Capital Dependency	0.24 0-1	2023	23.7	+1.9	+3.5
Projected Groundwater Change	0.22 0-1	2023	21.9	-4.3	+0.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.15 0-1	2023	14.6	+7.7	+12.7
Threatened Mammal Species	15.0 count	2018	7.9	+2.7	+2.7
Dependency Ratio	0.07 0-1	2023	6.8	0.0	+5.3
Child Malnutrition	0.03 0-1	2023	3.3	-10.5	-4.6
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.03 0-1	2023	2.7	-10.8	-15.2
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.03 0-1	2023	2.6	-4.8	-0.8
Population Below 5m	0.01 0-1	2023	1.2	-13.6	-12.9
Natural Resource Depletion	0.61 % of GNI	2021	1.1	-1.0	-1.3
Tree Cover Loss	49896 hectares	2021	0.8	+0.7	+0.5
Water Stress	5.74 %	2021	0.1	-0.2	-0.1
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-0.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	0.44 per 1,000	2021	99.4	+15.5	+12.3
Poverty Rate (National)	56.0 % population	2023	86.2	+60.4	+45.0
Uprooted People	8.40 0-10	2026	84.0	+25.0	+24.0
Recent Shocks	8.10 0-10	2026	81.0	+80.0	+75.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	4.60 %	2023	80.3	+14.7	+8.2
Gini Coefficient	45.2 0-100	2023	67.4	+16.1	+3.0
Development and Deprivation	6.60 0-10	2026	66.0	+36.0	+37.0
Overweight Adults	63.2 % adults	2022	65.8	+9.8	-0.7
Gender Labor Ratio	50.0 ratio F/M	2023	56.1	+29.1	+22.0
Net Migration	-8940 persons	2023	54.7	-0.3	-0.3
Aid Dependency	5.00 0-10	2026	50.0	+25.0	+25.0
Internet Users	56.1 % population	2023	49.4	+28.5	+25.1
GDP Growth	3.53 % annual	2023	47.9	-1.0	-0.9
Safe Drinking Water	56.3 % population	2022	46.6	+25.1	+10.5
Life Expectancy	72.6 years	2023	43.2	+3.8	+7.4
School Gender Parity	0.99 ratio	2021	42.9	+1.9	+0.5
Education Expenditure	18.9 % of govt	2022	41.6	-23.3	-19.6
Labor Participation	62.1 % (15+)	2023	41.0	+10.9	+10.8
ESG Performance Score	2.08 0-100	2018	39.4	+14.4	+14.9
Primary School Enrollment	103 % gross	2023	37.9	-4.1	-5.6
Communicable Disease Deaths	22.3 %	2019	32.9	+16.8	+16.4
Fertility Rate	2.31 births per woman	2023	29.4	+6.1	+11.2
Food Security	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+11.0	+11.0
Children Under 5	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	+13.0	+14.0
Adult Literacy Rate	83.0 %	2022	23.3	+2.0	+16.6
Undernourishment	12.6 % population	2022	20.7	+14.9	+16.2
Under-5 Mortality Rate	21.4 per 1,000	2023	17.6	+5.4	+7.0
Aging Population	4.73 % population	2023	9.1	-7.3	-13.2
Unemployment Rate	2.34 %	2023	6.3	-7.9	-10.7
Health Conditions	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-5.0	-5.0
Population Density	167 people/km2	2022	0.9	+0.4	+0.6
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	9.00 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	121 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
R&D Expenditure	0.06 % of GDP	2021	99.7	+12.9	+3.8
Control of Corruption	-1.12 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	72.4	+16.8	+15.2
INFORM Governance Index	7.20 0-10	2026	72.0	+16.0	+16.0
Rule of Law	-1.08 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	71.5	+18.5	+15.3
Government Effectiveness	-0.90 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	67.9	+16.2	+16.4
Women in Parliament	20.0 % seats	2023	67.3	+9.1	+14.4
Voice and Accountability	-0.53 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.7	+11.9	+21.4
Regulatory Quality	-0.29 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	55.8	+3.0	+5.9
Political Stability	-0.24 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	54.9	+5.1	+9.2
Healthcare Access	4.40 0-10	2026	44.0	+7.0	+15.0
Physical Infrastructure	4.20 0-10	2026	42.0	+12.0	+13.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	-4.5	0.0
Communication Infrastructure	3.30 0-10	2026	33.0	+13.0	+13.0
Legal Rights Strength	9.00 0-12	2019	25.0	-25.0	-33.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.00 0-1	2023	99.8	+5.1	+2.0
Education (Readiness)	0.16 0-1	2023	83.7	+10.7	+14.7
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.17 0-1	2023	83.3	+19.0	+17.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.29 0-1	2023	70.9	+19.4	+2.6
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.30 0-1	2023	70.2	+18.3	+15.0
Doing Business Score	0.37 0-1	2023	62.8	+4.4	+1.4
ICT Infrastructure	0.43 0-1	2023	56.6	+8.9	+11.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.45 0-1	2023	55.3	+2.7	+5.9
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.53 0-1	2023	47.2	+4.1	+7.9

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Guatemala?
Guatemala: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 55 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Guatemala's risk?
Guatemala's highest pressures are governance (70, high) and adaptation (68). Its strongest area is climate (37).
How might Guatemala's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 14% of Guatemala's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Guatemala warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Guatemala is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -276 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Guatemala's coast?
Coastal sea level along Guatemala is projected to rise by +0.94 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.76 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Guatemala?
The share of Guatemala under high water stress is projected to move from 0.2% today to 1.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Guatemala?
The share of Guatemala exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.1% today to 1.6% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Guatemala's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.