Climate risk in Guatemala City
Guatemala · 1M people in the urban area
What threatens Guatemala City most
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Guatemala
An earthquake's shaking at Guatemala City can reach 3.29 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
San Salvador: 3.36 m/s².
Guatemala City's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Guatemala City is projected to have the climate that Brasília (Brazil) has today.
+1.4°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.4°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.3°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-4%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Guatemala City would have the climate that Brasília (Brazil) has today.
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How close the match is: 1.1 σ to the climate of Brasília today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Guatemala City
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Guatemala City | Among large cities | In Guatemala |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 30.2°C | Among large cities: above 7% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.7°C | Among large cities: above 30% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 14 days | Among large cities: above 67% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Low (<10%) | Among large cities: above 0% | |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 3.29 m/s² | Among large cities: above 91% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 24.94 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Guatemala City on the live map
See the hottest days around Guatemala City on the live map
30.2°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Guatemala City
- San Salvador · El Salvador
- Mérida · Mexico
- San José · Costa Rica
- Puebla City · Mexico
Large cities in Guatemala
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Guatemala City, Guatemala: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/GTM/guatemala-city BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_GTM_guatemala_city_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Guatemala City, Guatemala: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/GTM/guatemala-city},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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