Iraq: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 59 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Iraq's risk?

Iraq's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is nature (37).

How might Iraq's climate change by 2080?

Iraq's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 67 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Iraq warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Iraq is on track to warm by +4.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +2 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Iraq's coast?

Coastal sea level along Iraq is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.43 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Iraq?

The share of Iraq under high water stress is projected to move from 50% today to 74% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Iraq?

The share of Iraq exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.1% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Iraq's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Iraq Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Iraq country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Asia
Subregion: Western Asia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: IRQ

Iraq: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Iraq, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 59 / 100

68 Climate High
37 Nature +0.3 Low
41 Social Medium
77 Governance High
70 Adaptation -1.3 High

Which hazards threaten Iraq most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

9.6FloodCritical
4.3DRR capacityMedium

Iraq in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Western Asia

#16 of 18 · median 43

Asia

#42 of 48 · median 47

Lower middle income

#48 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Iraq: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Iraq is projected to warm +4.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +2 mm.

+4.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.4 °C → +4.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.7 °C → +3.1 °C

Hottest month +5.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+2 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3 mm → +2 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +5 mm → 0 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

74%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 68% → 74%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 68% → 75%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 50% today.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 2% → 1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 2% → 1.9%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.1% today.

Sea level

Iraq: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Basra, Max depth 2.1 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.26 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.17 m → +0.43 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	1.10 % of total energy	2021	98.9	+23.5	+8.3
Renewable Electricity Share	3.78 % of total	2021	96.2	+21.1	+11.3
Flood Risk	9.60 0-10	2026	96.0	+44.0	+30.5
Coastal Protection Needed	93.4 % coast	2024	92.7	+19.0	+19.8
Land Surface Temperature	38.1 deg C change	2021	87.3	+22.6	+19.8
Cooling Degree Days	5085 degree days	2024	67.8	+13.7	+14.9
Fossil Fuel Consumption	0.00 % of total	2023	50.0	0.0	0.0
Energy Imports	-275 % of energy use	2022	46.8	-24.3	-23.9
PM2.5 Air Pollution	38.2 ug/m3	2020	41.5	+22.3	+15.3
Heat Index	48.2 days	2024	31.9	+27.6	+22.6
Energy Intensity	4.96 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	22.0	+5.4	+3.6
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.46 index	2023	21.0	-23.1	-14.1
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	3.88 metric tons	2020	12.3	+4.6	+1.4
Heating Degree Days	1328 degree days	2024	9.7	-3.3	-2.3
Energy Use Per Capita	1506 kg oil eq per capita	2023	8.8	+0.2	-0.2
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.13 kt CO2e per capita	2020	3.0	-4.0	-3.1
Access to Clean Fuels	99.5 % population	2023	0.5	-7.8	-7.1
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	-5.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+92.5	+72.5
Environmental Treaties Engagement	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+23.7	+19.8
Protected Areas	1.50 % of land	2024	98.5	+10.2	+6.2
Forest Area	1.90 % of land	2023	98.0	+31.7	+13.0
Agricultural Capacity	0.93 0-1	2023	92.8	+1.0	+4.3
Freshwater Withdrawal	121 % of internal resources	2022	91.2	+40.9	+16.3
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.89 0-1	2023	88.5	+4.3	+6.7
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.72 0-1	2023	71.8	+9.6	+10.8
Urban Concentration	0.69 0-1	2023	69.4	+12.0	+14.0
Food Production Index	106 index	2022	66.8	-0.3	+6.8
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+36.4	+45.5
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.6	-20.9	-12.2
Age Dependency Ratio	0.65 0-1	2023	65.2	+12.5	+19.6
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.62 0-1	2023	62.4	+4.8	+7.1
Projected Warm Period Change	0.62 0-1	2023	62.1	-5.6	-3.2
Water Dependency Ratio	0.61 0-1	2023	60.8	+53.9	+53.8
Projected Population Change	0.60 0-1	2023	60.2	+37.9	+36.6
Earthquake Risk	5.10 0-10	2026	51.0	+16.0	-16.5
Slum Population	0.50 0-1	2023	49.8	+33.3	+31.0
Protected Biome Areas	0.48 0-1	2023	48.5	+7.5	+3.6
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.48 0-1	2023	47.8	+8.5	+14.6
Projected Hydropower Change	0.47 0-1	2023	47.1	+3.4	+3.4
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.41 0-1	2023	40.8	+20.4	+12.9
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.32 0-1	2023	32.3	-5.0	-4.4
Rural Population	0.31 0-1	2023	30.6	-12.0	-14.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.29 0-1	2023	28.6	+15.1	+12.6
Population Below 5m	0.28 0-1	2023	27.7	+12.9	+9.9
Natural Capital Dependency	0.27 0-1	2023	26.8	+5.0	+1.1
Agricultural Land	21.8 % of land	2023	24.9	-19.4	-8.4
Natural Resource Depletion	11.5 % of GNI	2021	20.1	+18.0	+17.5
Projected Groundwater Change	0.20 0-1	2023	19.9	-6.3	-8.7
Paved Roads	0.16 0-1	2023	15.8	-39.3	-10.9
Disaster Preparedness	0.15 0-1	2023	15.0	-15.0	-10.0
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.13 0-1	2023	13.4	-5.0	+1.3
Dam Capacity	0.13 0-1	2023	13.0	-80.3	-80.6
Child Malnutrition	0.12 0-1	2023	12.4	-1.4	-5.4
Food Import Dependency	0.11 0-1	2023	10.9	-10.8	-8.5
Agriculture GDP Share	3.39 % of GDP	2024	8.0	-7.8	-9.2
Threatened Mammal Species	13.0 count	2022	6.1	+0.9	0.0
Dependency Ratio	0.04 0-1	2023	4.2	-2.6	+0.3
Water Stress	59.6 %	2022	1.5	+1.2	+0.3
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	-25.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-39.6	-27.6
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-20.7
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Tree Cover Loss	2.00 hectares	2024	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.06 per 1,000	2018	93.5	+12.0	+8.2
Gender Labor Ratio	15.2 ratio F/M	2024	91.8	+66.4	+51.7
Uprooted People	8.70 0-10	2026	87.0	+28.0	+33.5
Overweight Adults	73.3 % adults	2022	78.4	+22.4	+23.7
Labor Participation	43.4 % (15+)	2024	69.7	+40.8	+37.8
Sanitation Access	50.9 % population	2024	53.4	+11.5	+20.1
GDP Growth	0.52 % annual	2023	52.6	+3.7	+4.8
Net Migration	-17735 persons	2024	51.5	-0.6	-0.5
Development and Deprivation	4.90 0-10	2026	49.0	+19.0	+23.5
Fertility Rate	3.22 births per woman	2024	46.8	+23.8	+23.8
Life Expectancy	72.4 years	2024	44.2	+4.5	+7.3
Unemployment Rate	15.3 %	2024	43.9	+29.8	+32.8
Safe Drinking Water	59.8 % population	2024	42.8	+17.6	+14.9
Food Security	3.60 0-10	2026	36.0	+18.0	+18.0
Unmet Contraception Need	14.3 %	2018	29.4	-20.1	-4.2
Communicable Disease Deaths	20.1 %	2021	27.5	-9.1	-7.7
Adult Literacy Rate	84.1 %	2021	25.3	+7.9	+13.3
Undernourishment	14.9 % population	2023	24.0	+18.8	+19.0
Poverty Rate (National)	17.5 % population	2023	23.0	-4.6	+7.9
Aid Dependency	2.20 0-10	2026	22.0	-3.0	+1.0
Internet Users	81.5 % population	2024	20.3	+0.8	+6.4
Gini Coefficient	29.8 0-100	2023	19.5	-12.8	-15.7
Income Share Bottom 20%	8.90 %	2023	18.6	-25.0	-20.7
Under-5 Mortality Rate	21.8 per 1,000	2024	17.9	+6.0	+7.3
Children Under 5	1.30 0-10	2026	13.0	+2.0	0.0
Aging Population	3.41 % population	2024	5.0	-11.9	-9.0
Health Conditions	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-5.0	-1.0
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	-2.0
ESG Performance Score	4.95 0-100	2020	0.8	-15.7	-4.5
Population Density	104 people/km2	2023	0.5	0.0	-0.2
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	635 count	2020	100.0	0.0	0.0
Legal Rights Strength	0.00 0-12	2019	100.0	+50.0	+50.0
R&D Expenditure	0.04 % of GDP	2021	100.0	+12.9	+6.2
Scientific Articles	13408 count	2022	98.5	-1.4	-1.3
Political Stability	-2.41 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	98.3	+48.5	+42.7
Rule of Law	-1.69 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	83.9	+31.0	+30.8
Regulatory Quality	-1.44 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	78.8	+26.0	+24.2
Government Effectiveness	-1.39 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	77.8	+26.1	+27.1
Control of Corruption	-1.32 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	76.4	+20.8	+18.1
INFORM Governance Index	7.30 0-10	2026	73.0	+17.0	+15.5
Voice and Accountability	-0.96 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	69.2	+20.4	+3.7
Women in Parliament	28.9 % seats	2024	54.7	-4.4	-14.1
Healthcare Access	4.70 0-10	2026	47.0	+10.0	+14.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	4.30 0-10	2026	43.0	+1.5	+7.0
Physical Infrastructure	3.20 0-10	2026	32.0	+2.0	+2.5
Communication Infrastructure	2.60 0-10	2026	26.0	+6.0	+11.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.07 0-1	2023	92.8	-1.9	-1.5
Education (Readiness)	0.09 0-1	2023	90.8	+17.8	+17.9
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.12 0-1	2023	87.9	+23.6	+20.1
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.15 0-1	2023	84.5	+41.4	+36.2
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.18 0-1	2023	82.4	+30.5	+30.6
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.22 0-1	2023	78.0	+25.4	+24.5
Doing Business Score	0.40 0-1	2023	60.4	+2.0	+9.3
ICT Infrastructure	0.54 0-1	2023	46.2	-1.5	+0.7
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.66 0-1	2023	34.3	-17.2	-8.6

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Iraq: ask your AI assistant

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Iraq: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Iraq?
Iraq: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 59 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Iraq's risk?
Iraq's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is nature (37).
How might Iraq's climate change by 2080?
Iraq's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 67 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Iraq warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Iraq is on track to warm by +4.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +2 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Iraq's coast?
Coastal sea level along Iraq is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.43 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Iraq?
The share of Iraq under high water stress is projected to move from 50% today to 74% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Iraq?
The share of Iraq exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.1% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Iraq's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.