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Iraq

Region Asia Subregion Western Asia Income Lower middle income ISO IRQ

Iraq sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Iraq, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
59 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    69 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    37 / 100
    ▲ + 0.3 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    41 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    77 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    70 / 100
    ▼ -1.3 5y
Climate futures

Iraq: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Iraq is projected to warm +4.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +2 mm.

Temperature

+4.6 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.4 °C → +4.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.7 °C → +3.1 °C

Hottest month +5.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+2 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3 mm → +2 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+5 mm → 0 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Iraq: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.26 m → +0.73 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.17 m → +0.43 m

Water stress

74%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
68% → 74%
Current path SSP3-7.0
68% → 75%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 50% today.

River flooding

1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2% → 1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2% → 1.9%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 4.1% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Iraq.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Iraq most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
9.6 / 10
DRR capacity
Medium
4.3 / 10
Peers

Iraq in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Asia
#16 of 18median 43
  1. 9GeorgiaMedium 42
  2. 10JordanMedium 44
  3. 11ArmeniaMedium 44
  4. 12KuwaitMedium 44
  5. 13AzerbaijanMedium 49
  6. 14TurkeyMedium 49
  7. 15LebanonMedium 53
  8. 16IraqMedium 59
  9. 17SyriaHigh 65
  10. 18YemenHigh 66
region
Asia
#42 of 48median 47
  1. 38CambodiaMedium 55
  2. 39PhilippinesMedium 56
  3. 40IranMedium 56
  4. 41IndiaMedium 57
  5. 42IraqMedium 59
  6. 43MyanmarHigh 63
  7. 44BangladeshHigh 64
  8. 45PakistanHigh 64
  9. 46AfghanistanHigh 64
  10. 47SyriaHigh 65
income group
Lower middle income
#48 of 53median 49
  1. 44CongoMedium 56
  2. 45HondurasMedium 57
  3. 46IndiaMedium 57
  4. 47Papua New GuineaMedium 58
  5. 48IraqMedium 59
  6. 49NigeriaHigh 60
  7. 50SudanHigh 64
  8. 51PakistanHigh 64
  9. 52SyriaHigh 65
  10. 53YemenHigh 66

Put two countries head to head

Compare Iraq against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Iraq?
Iraq sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 59 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Iraq's risk?
Iraq's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (70). Its strongest area is nature (37).
How might Iraq's climate change by 2080?
Iraq's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 67 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Iraq warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Iraq is on track to warm by +4.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +2 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Iraq's coast?
Coastal sea level along Iraq is projected to rise by +0.73 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.43 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Iraq?
The share of Iraq under high water stress is projected to move from 50% today to 74% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Iraq?
The share of Iraq exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 4.1% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Iraq's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.