Climate risk in Mosul
Nineveh, Iraq · 1.3M people in the urban area
What threatens Mosul most
- Water stress
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 19.53 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Iraq
A 100-year river flood would stand 19.53 m deep in the centre of Mosul.
Baghdad: Dry at the city centre point.
The highest of the 5 large cities in Iraq.
Mosul's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Mosul is projected to have the climate that Kirkuk (Iraq) has today.
+2°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.6°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-7%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Mosul would have the climate that Kirkuk (Iraq) has today.
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How close the match is: 0.0 σ to the climate of Kirkuk today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Mosul stands out
50.3°C
Hottest day of 2025
Baghdad: 51.3°C.
Higher than in 100% of the world's 630 large cities
144 days
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
Baghdad: 178 days.
Higher than in 96% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Mosul
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Mosul | Among large cities | In Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 144 days | Among large cities: above 96% | In Iraq: 4 of 5 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 158 days | Among large cities: above 66% | In Iraq: 4 of 5 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 50.3°C | Among large cities: above 100% | In Iraq: 3 of 5 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.5°C | Among large cities: above 85% | In Iraq: 3 of 5 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 3 days | Among large cities: above 24% | In Iraq: 2 of 5 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 19.53 m | Among large cities: above 100% | In Iraq: 1 of 5 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | In Iraq: 4 of 5 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Iraq: 3 of 3 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.93 m/s² | Among large cities: above 78% | In Iraq: 2 of 4 |
| Land burned in an average year | 1% | Among large cities: above 83% | In Iraq: 1 of 5 |
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Mosul on the live map
See the hottest days around Mosul on the live map
50.3°C © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Mosul
- Kirkuk · Iraq
- Van · Turkey
- Batman · Turkey
- Diyarbakır · Turkey
Large cities in Iraq
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Mosul, Iraq: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/IRQ/mosul BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_IRQ_mosul_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Mosul, Iraq: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/IRQ/mosul},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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