What drives Philippines's risk?

Philippines's highest pressures are governance (66, high) and adaptation (64). Its strongest area is social (36).

How might Philippines's climate change by 2080?

Philippines's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Philippines warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Philippines is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +37 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Philippines's coast?

Coastal sea level along Philippines is projected to rise by +0.93 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Philippines?

The share of Philippines under high water stress is projected to move from 5.1% today to 18% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Philippines?

The share of Philippines exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.8% today to 3.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Philippines's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Philippines Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: South-Eastern Asia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: PHL

Philippines: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Philippines, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 56 / 100

54 Climate Medium
57 Nature -2.4 Medium
36 Social Low
66 Governance High
64 Adaptation -4.1 High

Which hazards threaten Philippines most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.7FloodHigh
2.4DRR capacityLow

Philippines in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

South-Eastern Asia

#9 of 11 · median 52

Asia

#38 of 48 · median 47

Lower middle income

#42 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Philippines: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Philippines is projected to warm +2.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +37 mm.

+2.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.7 °C → +2.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.4 °C → +1.8 °C

Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+37 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +4 mm → +37 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +21 mm → +52 mm

Driest month -7 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

18%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 18% → 18%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 18% → 21%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 5.1% today.

3.8%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 3.3% → 3.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 3.2% → 3.2%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2.8% today.

Sea level

Philippines: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.30 m → +0.93 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.27 m → +0.73 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Coastal Protection Needed	93.6 % coast	2020	91.6	+7.3	+1.3
Renewable Electricity Share	22.7 % of total	2021	77.3	+2.2	-5.7
Energy Imports	54.4 % of energy use	2022	73.2	+2.1	+2.5
Cooling Degree Days	5255 degree days	2020	71.9	+20.1	+20.9
Renewable Energy Share	28.0 % of total energy	2021	70.9	-4.5	-19.7
Flood Risk	6.70 0-10	2026	67.0	+15.0	+1.5
Land Surface Temperature	27.8 deg C change	2021	66.0	+1.3	-1.5
Fossil Fuel Consumption	66.2 % of total	2022	64.8	-7.9	-22.0
Coal Electricity Share	59.6 % of total	2022	61.9	+45.2	+30.0
Access to Clean Fuels	59.1 % population	2022	40.9	+30.6	+32.3
PM2.5 Air Pollution	20.3 ug/m3	2020	19.2	0.0	-7.0
Energy Intensity	2.78 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	9.6	-7.0	-8.8
Heat Index	11.4 index	2020	8.4	+8.3	+6.3
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	1.19 metric tons	2020	3.7	-4.0	-7.2
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.13 kt CO2e per capita	2020	3.0	-4.0	-3.1
Energy Use Per Capita	551 kg oil eq per capita	2022	2.9	-5.4	-6.0
Heating Degree Days	1.69 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	-7.6

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Annual Runoff Change	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+60.4	+72.3
Dam Capacity	0.98 0-1	2023	98.4	+5.1	+4.8
Earthquake Risk	9.70 0-10	2026	97.0	+62.0	+29.5
Protected Areas	3.70 % of land	2023	96.3	+7.4	+3.1
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.96 0-1	2023	96.0	+9.5	+18.2
Tsunami Risk	9.40 0-10	2026	94.0	+83.0	+69.0
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.82 0-1	2023	82.4	-1.8	+0.6
Paved Roads	0.81 0-1	2023	80.6	+25.5	+53.8
Agricultural Capacity	0.80 0-1	2023	79.5	-12.3	-9.0
Forest Area	24.3 % of land	2022	74.2	+7.9	-10.7
Food Production Index	101 index	2022	72.3	+5.2	+12.3
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.70 0-1	2023	70.0	-6.3	-10.2
Freshwater Withdrawal	18.6 % of internal resources	2021	66.9	+16.6	-8.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.9	+0.1	+0.1
Projected Warm Period Change	0.64 0-1	2023	64.4	-3.3	-0.9
Population Below 5m	0.64 0-1	2023	63.6	+48.9	+45.8
Rural Population	0.56 0-1	2023	55.7	+13.1	+11.1
Energy Import Dependency	0.54 0-1	2023	54.4	+28.7	+33.7
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.53 0-1	2023	52.9	+32.5	+25.0
Agricultural Land	42.5 % of land	2022	50.0	+2.7	+9.7
Age Dependency Ratio	0.48 0-1	2023	48.4	-4.4	+2.8
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.47 0-1	2023	47.1	-10.5	-8.2
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.47 0-1	2023	46.9	+9.6	+10.2
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.46 0-1	2023	46.2	-15.9	-14.8
Urban Concentration	0.44 0-1	2023	44.3	-13.1	-11.1
Projected Hydropower Change	0.39 0-1	2023	39.0	-4.7	-4.7
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.38 0-1	2023	37.7	-1.5	+4.5
Slum Population	0.37 0-1	2023	36.9	+20.4	+18.1
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.36 0-1	2023	35.7	+17.4	+23.6
Protected Biome Areas	0.35 0-1	2023	35.4	-5.6	-9.5
Ecological Footprint	0.35 0-1	2023	35.1	+12.5	+10.2
Projected Groundwater Change	0.32 0-1	2023	32.3	+6.1	+3.7
Projected Population Change	0.29 0-1	2023	29.5	+7.2	+5.9
Agriculture GDP Share	9.40 % of GDP	2023	26.1	+7.2	+4.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.25 0-1	2023	24.9	+11.4	+8.9
Natural Capital Dependency	0.23 0-1	2023	23.2	+1.4	-2.6
Child Malnutrition	0.22 0-1	2023	22.3	+8.5	+4.5
Food Import Dependency	0.22 0-1	2023	21.7	0.0	+2.3
Threatened Mammal Species	38.0 count	2018	19.9	+14.7	+13.1
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.16 0-1	2023	15.9	+8.4	-11.7
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.09 0-1	2023	9.1	-21.2	-12.1
Natural Resource Depletion	1.31 % of GNI	2021	2.3	+0.2	-0.3
Electricity Access	0.02 0-1	2023	2.0	+2.0	+2.0
Tree Cover Loss	48883 hectares	2021	0.7	+0.6	+0.7
Water Stress	27.2 %	2021	0.7	+0.4	-0.7
Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.3	-6.5	-3.6
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	-7.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-30.0	-25.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Recent Shocks	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+99.0	+97.0
Hospital Beds	0.96 per 1,000	2021	95.2	+11.3	+9.9
Shared Prosperity Growth	-0.05 % annual	2023	58.4	+4.5	+17.4
Safe Drinking Water	47.9 % population	2022	55.5	+34.0	+25.3
Uprooted People	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	-5.0	+0.5
Life Expectancy	69.8 years	2023	51.8	+12.3	+18.6
Net Migration	-164284 persons	2023	49.5	-5.5	-5.4
Gini Coefficient	39.3 0-100	2023	45.3	-6.0	+17.4
Primary School Enrollment	93.4 % gross	2023	45.3	+3.3	+4.3
GDP Growth	5.52 % annual	2023	44.7	-4.2	-3.1
ESG Performance Score	2.03 0-100	2018	42.9	+17.9	+16.5
Income Share Bottom 20%	6.90 %	2023	42.6	-23.0	+9.0
Development and Deprivation	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	+10.0	+14.5
Labor Participation	63.5 % (15+)	2023	38.8	+8.7	+7.6
Sanitation Access	62.7 % population	2022	38.3	-1.7	+3.9
Health Conditions	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	+29.0	+33.0
Gender Labor Ratio	69.3 ratio F/M	2023	36.2	+9.2	-3.6
Communicable Disease Deaths	24.3 %	2019	36.0	+19.9	+21.8
Education Expenditure	16.7 % of govt	2023	35.4	-11.7	-16.0
School Gender Parity	1.03 ratio	2021	35.4	-5.6	-5.9
Overweight Adults	35.0 % adults	2022	30.3	-25.7	-24.4
Children Under 5	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	+18.0	+16.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	26.9 per 1,000	2023	22.5	+10.3	+12.0
Fertility Rate	1.92 births per woman	2023	22.1	-1.2	-1.1
Unmet Contraception Need	12.4 %	2022	20.9	-26.5	+2.9
Aid Dependency	2.00 0-10	2026	20.0	-5.0	-1.0
Internet Users	83.8 % population	2023	18.2	-2.7	+1.8
Poverty Rate (National)	15.5 % population	2023	17.5	-8.3	+7.0
Food Security	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-4.0	-4.0
Aging Population	5.26 % population	2023	10.6	-5.8	-3.2
Undernourishment	5.90 % population	2022	7.0	+1.2	+1.4
Unemployment Rate	2.22 %	2023	6.0	-8.2	-5.6
Adult Literacy Rate	98.0 %	2020	2.9	-5.8	-1.4
Access to Electricity	98.0 % population	2023	2.1	+2.1	+2.1
Population Density	382 people/km2	2022	2.0	+1.5	+1.4

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	490 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	3961 count	2022	99.6	-0.3	-0.2
R&D Expenditure	0.32 % of GDP	2018	93.6	+5.9	-1.0
Legal Rights Strength	1.00 0-12	2019	91.7	+41.7	+41.7
Political Stability	-0.57 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	61.3	+11.5	+5.7
Control of Corruption	-0.54 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	60.8	+5.2	+2.5
Rule of Law	-0.42 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	58.4	+5.4	+5.3
INFORM Governance Index	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+1.0	-0.5
Healthcare Access	5.70 0-10	2026	57.0	+20.0	+24.0
Women in Parliament	27.3 % seats	2023	55.4	-2.8	-13.8
Voice and Accountability	-0.02 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	50.3	+1.4	-15.2
Government Effectiveness	0.15 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	46.9	-4.8	-3.8
Regulatory Quality	0.16 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	46.7	-6.0	-7.9
Physical Infrastructure	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	-6.0	-5.5
Disaster Risk Reduction	2.40 0-10	2026	24.0	-17.5	-12.0
Communication Infrastructure	2.10 0-10	2026	21.0	+1.0	+6.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.02 0-1	2023	97.9	+3.2	+3.6
Education (Readiness)	0.27 0-1	2023	72.9	-0.1	0.0
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.30 0-1	2023	69.9	+5.6	+2.1
Doing Business Score	0.33 0-1	2023	67.5	+9.1	+16.4
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.43 0-1	2023	57.3	+5.3	+5.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.44 0-1	2023	56.0	+4.5	+13.1
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.47 0-1	2023	52.7	+9.6	+4.4
ICT Infrastructure	0.50 0-1	2023	50.0	+2.3	+4.5
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.54 0-1	2023	46.3	-6.3	-7.3

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Philippines?
Philippines: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 56 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Philippines's risk?
Philippines's highest pressures are governance (66, high) and adaptation (64). Its strongest area is social (36).
How might Philippines's climate change by 2080?
Philippines's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Philippines warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Philippines is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +37 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.8 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Philippines's coast?
Coastal sea level along Philippines is projected to rise by +0.93 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.73 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Philippines?
The share of Philippines under high water stress is projected to move from 5.1% today to 18% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Philippines?
The share of Philippines exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2.8% today to 3.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Philippines's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.