Belize: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 45 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

What drives Belize's risk?

Belize's highest pressures are governance (69, high) and adaptation (66). Its strongest area is climate (25).

How might Belize's climate change by 2080?

Belize's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Belize warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Belize is on track to warm by +3.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -282 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Belize's coast?

Coastal sea level along Belize is projected to rise by +1.09 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.88 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Belize?

The share of Belize under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Belize?

The share of Belize exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Belize's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Belize Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Belize country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Americas
Subregion: Central America
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: BLZ

Belize: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Belize, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 45 / 100

25 Climate Low
31 Nature +1.2 Low
33 Social Low
69 Governance High
66 Adaptation -2.3 High

Which hazards threaten Belize most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

2.2FloodLow

Belize in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central America

#3 of 8 · median 52

Americas

#18 of 35 · median 45

Lower middle income

#9 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Belize: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Belize is projected to warm +3.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing -282 mm.

+3.4 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.2 °C → +3.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.8 °C → +2.2 °C

Hottest month +3.3 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-282 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -118 mm → -282 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -61 mm → -44 mm

Driest month -4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 0% → 0%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.

0.8%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 14% → 0.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 13% → 0.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.8% today.

Sea level

Belize: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.

Belize City, Max depth 1.3 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.39 m → +1.09 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.37 m → +0.88 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Cooling Degree Days	5457 degree days	2024	72.8	+18.7	+5.3
Renewable Energy Share	30.8 % of total energy	2022	68.4	0.0	-24.9
Land Surface Temperature	28.0 deg C change	2021	66.5	+1.8	+1.2
Coastal Protection Needed	43.6 % coast	2024	37.3	-36.4	-35.8
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.81 index	2023	34.2	-9.9	-6.9
Heat Index	49.4 days	2024	32.7	+28.5	+30.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	28.7 ug/m3	2020	29.6	+10.4	+11.0
Energy Intensity	4.29 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	25.9	+6.7	+10.3
Flood Risk	2.20 0-10	2026	22.0	-30.0	-20.0
Access to Clean Fuels	82.9 % population	2023	17.1	+8.8	+11.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.53 kt CO2e per capita	2020	12.3	+5.3	+5.1
Methane Emissions Per Capita	1.32 kt CO2e per capita	2020	10.2	+2.1	-7.4
Renewable Electricity Share	92.9 % of total	2021	7.1	-68.0	-61.1
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	1.76 metric tons	2020	5.5	-2.2	-1.4
Heating Degree Days	0.01 degree days	2024	0.0	-13.0	-1.1
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Population Below 5m	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+85.3	+85.9
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.98 0-1	2023	97.8	+11.3	+3.7
Dam Capacity	0.92 0-1	2023	92.4	-0.9	+5.9
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.89 0-1	2023	89.2	+5.0	+6.9
Paved Roads	0.84 0-1	2023	83.7	+28.7	+16.7
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.79 0-1	2023	79.4	+3.1	+4.5
Agricultural Capacity	0.77 0-1	2023	76.8	-15.0	-14.2
Ecological Footprint	0.76 0-1	2023	76.3	+53.7	+54.4
Protected Areas	26.8 % of land	2024	73.1	-15.2	-16.7
Food Production Index	102 index	2022	70.7	+3.6	+0.4
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.9	+8.3	+10.0
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.7	-0.1	-0.1
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.62 0-1	2023	62.4	+48.9	+44.5
Rural Population	0.58 0-1	2023	57.5	+14.9	+24.6
Natural Capital Dependency	0.45 0-1	2023	44.5	+22.7	+24.3
Age Dependency Ratio	0.43 0-1	2023	43.3	-9.5	-3.5
Urban Concentration	0.42 0-1	2023	42.5	-14.9	-24.6
Forest Area	54.5 % of land	2023	42.3	-24.0	-10.1
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.41 0-1	2023	40.6	+3.4	-6.2
Projected Warm Period Change	0.40 0-1	2023	40.3	-27.5	-11.7
Projected Population Change	0.38 0-1	2023	37.7	+15.4	+17.7
Protected Biome Areas	0.36 0-1	2023	35.6	-5.4	-0.2
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.31 0-1	2023	30.5	-9.1	-18.9
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.30 0-1	2023	30.3	0.0	0.0
Tsunami Risk	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	+19.0	-7.0
Water Dependency Ratio	0.30 0-1	2023	29.8	+22.9	+27.9
Food Import Dependency	0.30 0-1	2023	29.5	+7.8	+4.4
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.28 0-1	2023	27.9	+9.5	-5.8
Earthquake Risk	2.10 0-10	2026	21.0	-14.0	-38.0
Water Bodies Extent	79.0 % of land	2023	21.0	-11.2	-12.8
Projected Groundwater Change	0.20 0-1	2023	20.4	-5.8	-1.5
Agriculture GDP Share	7.95 % of GDP	2024	18.8	+3.1	+5.1
Slum Population	0.16 0-1	2023	15.9	-0.6	+0.3
Dependency Ratio	0.15 0-1	2023	15.1	+8.3	+13.6
Freshwater Withdrawal	0.66 % of internal resources	2022	10.5	-39.8	-29.3
Agricultural Land	7.98 % of land	2023	8.8	-35.5	-25.0
Child Malnutrition	0.07 0-1	2023	7.4	-6.4	-0.5
Threatened Mammal Species	10.0 count	2022	4.7	-0.5	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.25 % of GNI	2021	1.4	+1.3	+1.3
Natural Resource Depletion	0.40 % of GNI	2021	0.7	-1.4	-1.7
Tree Cover Loss	34001 hectares	2024	0.7	+0.6	-0.2
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	0.6	-6.9	-2.8
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.4	+0.4	+0.2
Water Stress	1.26 %	2022	0.0	-0.3	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Hospital Beds	1.00 per 1,000	2023	93.1	+19.2	+11.3
Poverty Rate (National)	52.0 % population	2018	91.3	+54.8	+46.0
Overweight Adults	72.8 % adults	2022	77.9	+21.9	+11.4
Primary School Enrollment	96.5 % gross	2024	67.3	+3.0	+1.1
Income Share Bottom 20%	5.80 %	2018	62.0	+18.3	-11.2
Gini Coefficient	39.9 0-100	2018	52.2	+15.9	-13.0
Net Migration	490 persons	2024	52.2	+0.1	+0.1
GDP Growth	1.15 % annual	2023	51.6	+2.7	+2.9
Labor Participation	59.7 % (15+)	2024	44.7	+15.8	+14.5
School Gender Parity	0.99 ratio	2021	44.2	+3.2	+1.8
Aid Dependency	4.40 0-10	2026	44.0	+19.0	+19.0
Gender Labor Ratio	62.8 ratio F/M	2024	42.1	+16.7	+9.7
Development and Deprivation	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	+11.0	+12.0
Education Expenditure	18.9 % of govt	2024	40.7	-17.3	-19.7
Life Expectancy	73.7 years	2024	40.0	+0.3	+3.0
Communicable Disease Deaths	27.2 %	2021	38.6	+2.0	-0.5
Uprooted People	3.10 0-10	2026	31.0	-28.0	-29.0
Unemployment Rate	8.70 %	2024	24.8	+10.7	+6.8
Fertility Rate	2.02 births per woman	2024	24.1	+1.1	+5.9
Internet Users	80.0 % population	2024	21.9	+2.4	-0.2
Food Security	1.90 0-10	2026	19.0	+1.0	+1.0
Adult Literacy Rate	87.9 %	2022	18.8	+4.4	+9.6
ESG Performance Score	4.14 0-100	2020	17.1	+0.6	-2.2
Children Under 5	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-1.0	0.0
Under-5 Mortality Rate	12.7 per 1,000	2024	10.0	-1.9	-0.3
Aging Population	5.02 % population	2024	9.7	-7.3	-13.5
Undernourishment	7.00 % population	2023	8.7	+3.5	+3.0
Health Conditions	0.80 0-10	2026	8.0	0.0	0.0
Recent Shocks	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	0.0	-5.0
Access to Electricity	99.6 % population	2023	0.4	+0.4	+0.2
Population Density	18.0 people/km2	2023	0.1	-0.4	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Scientific Articles	17.7 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Women in Parliament	15.6 % seats	2024	75.5	+16.4	+23.6
Legal Rights Strength	4.00 0-12	2019	66.7	+16.7	+8.4
Rule of Law	-0.64 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	62.7	+9.8	+6.5
Regulatory Quality	-0.43 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	58.6	+5.9	+8.7
Government Effectiveness	-0.38 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	57.5	+5.8	+6.0
Control of Corruption	-0.23 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	54.5	-1.1	-2.7
Healthcare Access	5.30 0-10	2026	53.0	+16.0	+24.0
INFORM Governance Index	5.30 0-10	2026	53.0	-3.0	-3.0
Voice and Accountability	0.54 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	39.2	-9.6	-0.1
Political Stability	0.59 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.3	-11.5	-7.4
Physical Infrastructure	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	+4.0	+5.0
Communication Infrastructure	2.80 0-10	2026	28.0	+8.0	+8.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.02 0-1	2023	98.3	+3.6	+0.5
Education (Readiness)	0.14 0-1	2023	86.5	+13.5	+17.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.24 0-1	2023	76.1	+24.6	+7.8
Doing Business Score	0.34 0-1	2023	66.1	+7.7	+4.7
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.37 0-1	2023	62.7	-1.6	-3.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.38 0-1	2023	61.6	+9.6	+6.4
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.42 0-1	2023	58.1	+5.5	+8.7
ICT Infrastructure	0.48 0-1	2023	51.5	+3.8	+6.6
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.67 0-1	2023	32.9	-10.2	-6.4

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Belize: ask your AI assistant

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Belize: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
Central America: which countries are most at risk?

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Belize?
Belize: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 45 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Belize's risk?
Belize's highest pressures are governance (69, high) and adaptation (66). Its strongest area is climate (25).
How might Belize's climate change by 2080?
Belize's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Belize warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Belize is on track to warm by +3.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -282 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.2 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Belize's coast?
Coastal sea level along Belize is projected to rise by +1.09 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.88 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Belize?
The share of Belize under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Belize?
The share of Belize exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.8% today to 0.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Belize's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.