+3.3 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +2.2 °C → +3.3 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.7 °C → +2.0 °C
Hottest month +3.7 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Nicaragua Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Americas
- Subregion
- Central America
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- NIC
Nicaragua: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Nicaragua, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 53 / 100
5y
- 38 Climate Low
- 46 Nature +0.3 Medium
- 30 Social Low
- 76 Governance High
- 72 Adaptation -1.1 High
Which hazards threaten Nicaragua most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 5.0FloodMedium
Nicaragua in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
5
Central America
#5 of 8 · median 5227
Americas
#27 of 35 · median 4435
Lower middle income
#35 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Nicaragua: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Nicaragua is projected to warm +3.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing -252 mm.
-252 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- -108 mm → -252 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- -28 mm → -39 mm
Driest month -4 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
34%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 34%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 34%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
2.5%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 8.3% → 2.5%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 2.1% → 3.4%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.2% today.
Sea level
Nicaragua: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 2 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.26 m → +0.82 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.26 m → +0.65 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Energy Imports | 46.5 % of energy use | 72.5 |
Cooling Degree Days | 4985 degree days | 68.2 |
Land Surface Temperature | 27.4 deg C change | 65.3 |
Flood Risk | 5.00 0-10 | 50.0 |
Renewable Energy Share | 50.4 % of total energy | 47.7 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 59.2 % population | 40.8 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 39.9 % of total | 37.4 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 69.5 % of total | 30.5 |
Energy Intensity | 4.29 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 18.2 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 16.8 ug/m3 | 14.9 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.54 kt CO2e per capita | 12.7 |
Coastal Protection Needed | 29.8 % coast | 8.8 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 608 kg oil eq per capita | 3.2 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.70 metric tons | 2.1 |
Heat Index | 1.42 index | 1.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.96 0-1 | 95.8 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.93 0-1 | 93.2 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.92 0-1 | 91.5 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.91 0-1 | 91.2 |
Protected Areas | 10.0 % of land | 90.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.87 0-1 | 87.4 |
Earthquake Risk | 8.20 0-10 | 82.0 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.79 0-1 | 79.5 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.77 0-1 | 76.5 |
Tsunami Risk | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Forest Area | 26.7 % of land | 71.8 |
Slum Population | 0.68 0-1 | 67.8 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.62 0-1 | 61.6 |
Urban Concentration | 0.57 0-1 | 56.7 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.54 0-1 | 54.1 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.50 0-1 | 50.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.50 0-1 | 49.9 |
Agricultural Land | 42.3 % of land | 49.8 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.48 0-1 | 48.2 |
Food Production Index | 128 index | 46.6 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.46 0-1 | 46.5 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.45 0-1 | 45.1 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.43 0-1 | 43.5 |
Rural Population | 0.43 0-1 | 43.3 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.43 0-1 | 43.0 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 15.3 % of GDP | 42.6 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.31 0-1 | 30.6 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.25 0-1 | 25.3 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.24 0-1 | 24.5 |
Projected Population Change | 0.23 0-1 | 22.7 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.22 0-1 | 21.8 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.17 0-1 | 17.1 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.14 0-1 | 13.7 |
Electricity Access | 0.12 0-1 | 11.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 0.81 % of internal resources | 11.6 |
Population Below 5m | 0.11 0-1 | 10.9 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.09 0-1 | 9.1 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.05 0-1 | 5.1 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 2.24 % of GNI | 3.9 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 7.00 count | 3.7 |
Tree Cover Loss | 91851 hectares | 1.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.01 0-1 | 0.7 |
Water Stress | 2.22 % | 0.1 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Hospital Beds | 0.90 per 1,000 | 95.6 |
Overweight Adults | 67.2 % adults | 70.9 |
Aid Dependency | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Net Migration | -7996 persons | 54.8 |
Safe Drinking Water | 55.5 % population | 47.4 |
Internet Users | 58.2 % population | 47.0 |
GDP Growth | 4.43 % annual | 46.4 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 61.1 ratio F/M | 44.7 |
Food Security | 4.10 0-10 | 41.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 3.90 0-10 | 39.0 |
Life Expectancy | 74.9 years | 35.8 |
Primary School Enrollment | 106 % gross | 35.8 |
Undernourishment | 19.6 % population | 35.0 |
Labor Participation | 68.1 % (15+) | 31.7 |
Education Expenditure | 17.7 % of govt | 31.7 |
Fertility Rate | 2.22 births per woman | 27.7 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.31 0-100 | 22.0 |
Unemployment Rate | 4.72 % | 13.1 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 9.45 % | 12.8 |
Access to Electricity | 88.3 % population | 12.4 |
Health Conditions | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Aging Population | 5.38 % population | 10.9 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 13.4 per 1,000 | 10.6 |
Children Under 5 | 0.90 0-10 | 9.0 |
Population Density | 55.9 people/km2 | 0.3 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Uprooted People | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Scientific Articles | 41.5 count | 100.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 2.00 0-12 | 83.3 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.90 0-10 | 79.0 |
Control of Corruption | -1.39 -2.5 to +2.5 | 77.8 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.39 -2.5 to +2.5 | 77.7 |
Rule of Law | -1.28 -2.5 to +2.5 | 75.6 |
Government Effectiveness | -1.08 -2.5 to +2.5 | 71.7 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.88 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.6 |
Political Stability | -0.13 -2.5 to +2.5 | 52.5 |
Physical Infrastructure | 5.10 0-10 | 51.0 |
Healthcare Access | 4.50 0-10 | 45.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 3.30 0-10 | 33.0 |
Women in Parliament | 51.6 % seats | 15.7 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 99.9 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.11 0-1 | 89.4 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.18 0-1 | 82.4 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.26 0-1 | 74.2 |
Doing Business Score | 0.29 0-1 | 71.0 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.33 0-1 | 66.9 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.34 0-1 | 65.7 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.43 0-1 | 56.9 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.55 0-1 | 45.2 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
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Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Nicaragua?
Nicaragua: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Nicaragua's risk?
Nicaragua's highest pressures are governance (76, high) and adaptation (72). Its strongest area is social (30).
How might Nicaragua's climate change by 2080?
Nicaragua's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Nicaragua warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Nicaragua is on track to warm by +3.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -252 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Nicaragua's coast?
Coastal sea level along Nicaragua is projected to rise by +0.82 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.65 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Nicaragua?
The share of Nicaragua under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 34% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Nicaragua?
The share of Nicaragua exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.2% today to 2.5% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Nicaragua's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.