+4.4 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +3.2 °C → +4.4 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +2.5 °C → +3.0 °C
Hottest month +4.7 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Tajikistan Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Asia
- Subregion
- Central Asia
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- TJK
Tajikistan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Tajikistan, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 52 / 100
5y
- 47 Climate Medium
- 36 Nature +0.9 Low
- 40 Social Low
- 70 Governance High
- 67 Adaptation -1.5 High
Which hazards threaten Tajikistan most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 6.6FloodHigh
- 3.4DRR capacityLow
Tajikistan in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
4
Central Asia
#4 of 5 · median 5032
Asia
#32 of 48 · median 477
Low income
#7 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Tajikistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Tajikistan is projected to warm +4.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +36 mm.
+36 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +35 mm → +36 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +16 mm → +27 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
27%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 49% → 27%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 49% → 27%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 41% today.
1.7%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 1.4% → 1.7%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 1.4% → 1.7%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.7% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Heating Degree Days | 12410 degree days | 85.3 |
Energy Imports | 28.0 % of energy use | 71.1 |
Flood Risk | 6.60 0-10 | 66.0 |
Renewable Energy Share | 34.9 % of total energy | 63.8 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 60.9 % of total | 59.3 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 37.1 ug/m3 | 40.1 |
Land Surface Temperature | 11.9 deg C change | 33.2 |
Energy Intensity | 4.03 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 16.7 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 86.1 % population | 13.9 |
Cooling Degree Days | 488 degree days | 6.7 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 93.4 % of total | 6.6 |
Coal Electricity Share | 5.94 % of total | 6.2 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.25 kt CO2e per capita | 5.8 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.96 metric tons | 3.0 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 375 kg oil eq per capita | 1.8 |
Heat Index | 0.02 index | 0.0 |
Forest Area | 3.07 % of land | 96.8 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.89 0-1 | 89.5 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.88 0-1 | 88.5 |
Earthquake Risk | 8.10 0-10 | 81.0 |
Protected Areas | 22.3 % of land | 77.7 |
Rural Population | 0.77 0-1 | 77.3 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.76 0-1 | 76.0 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.74 0-1 | 74.1 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.68 0-1 | 68.2 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.64 0-1 | 64.4 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.64 0-1 | 64.1 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 22.9 % of GDP | 63.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 16.7 % of internal resources | 62.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.54 0-1 | 53.8 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.45 0-1 | 45.4 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.42 0-1 | 42.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.41 0-1 | 41.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.38 0-1 | 38.3 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.37 0-1 | 37.2 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.36 0-1 | 36.2 |
Agricultural Land | 28.1 % of land | 32.8 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.31 0-1 | 31.1 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.31 0-1 | 30.7 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.28 0-1 | 28.0 |
Dam Capacity | 0.27 0-1 | 26.8 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.26 0-1 | 26.4 |
Food Production Index | 150 index | 25.7 |
Urban Concentration | 0.23 0-1 | 22.7 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.21 0-1 | 21.5 |
Paved Roads | 0.17 0-1 | 17.4 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.17 0-1 | 17.3 |
Slum Population | 0.17 0-1 | 17.2 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.14 0-1 | 14.3 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 5.37 % of GNI | 9.4 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.06 0-1 | 6.1 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.06 0-1 | 5.8 |
Forest Depletion | 0.64 % of GNI | 3.7 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 7.00 count | 3.7 |
Water Stress | 69.9 % | 1.8 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 0.00 hectares | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Labor Participation | 42.7 % (15+) | 70.7 |
Hospital Beds | 4.32 per 1,000 | 68.0 |
Aid Dependency | 6.50 0-10 | 65.0 |
Overweight Adults | 58.9 % adults | 60.3 |
Net Migration | -19999 persons | 54.4 |
Internet Users | 56.8 % population | 48.6 |
Development and Deprivation | 4.80 0-10 | 48.0 |
Safe Drinking Water | 55.3 % population | 47.6 |
Life Expectancy | 71.8 years | 45.7 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 61.8 ratio F/M | 44.0 |
Fertility Rate | 3.07 births per woman | 43.4 |
GDP Growth | 8.30 % annual | 40.3 |
Uprooted People | 4.00 0-10 | 40.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 101 % gross | 39.8 |
Unemployment Rate | 11.5 % | 32.7 |
Education Expenditure | 21.4 % of govt | 32.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 19.5 % | 28.5 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 20.4 % population | 25.8 |
Food Security | 2.50 0-10 | 25.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 27.3 per 1,000 | 22.8 |
Children Under 5 | 1.70 0-10 | 17.0 |
Health Conditions | 1.40 0-10 | 14.0 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.42 0-100 | 13.7 |
Undernourishment | 8.70 % population | 12.7 |
Aging Population | 3.65 % population | 6.0 |
Population Density | 73.4 people/km2 | 0.4 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Access to Electricity | 100 % population | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 1.00 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 110 count | 100.0 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.09 % of GDP | 99.1 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.63 -2.5 to +2.5 | 82.7 |
Control of Corruption | -1.38 -2.5 to +2.5 | 77.6 |
Rule of Law | -1.28 -2.5 to +2.5 | 75.5 |
Regulatory Quality | -1.18 -2.5 to +2.5 | 73.6 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.77 -2.5 to +2.5 | 65.4 |
Political Stability | -0.47 -2.5 to +2.5 | 59.5 |
Women in Parliament | 27.0 % seats | 55.9 |
Physical Infrastructure | 3.90 0-10 | 39.0 |
Healthcare Access | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 3.60 0-10 | 36.0 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 3.40 0-10 | 34.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 11.0 0-12 | 8.3 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.11 0-1 | 89.2 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.21 0-1 | 79.3 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.26 0-1 | 74.2 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.27 0-1 | 72.9 |
Doing Business Score | 0.40 0-1 | 59.8 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.41 0-1 | 59.2 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.49 0-1 | 51.1 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.63 0-1 | 37.3 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Tajikistan →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Tajikistan.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Tajikistan?
Tajikistan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 52 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Tajikistan's risk?
Tajikistan's highest pressures are governance (70, high) and adaptation (67). Its strongest area is nature (36).
How might Tajikistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 46% of Tajikistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 58 to 67 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Tajikistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tajikistan is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +36 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Tajikistan?
The share of Tajikistan under high water stress is projected to move from 41% today to 27% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Tajikistan?
The share of Tajikistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.7% today to 1.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Tajikistan's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.