Criora

Tajikistan

Region Asia Subregion Central Asia Income Low income ISO TJK

Tajikistan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

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Standing risk

How risky is Tajikistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
52 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    47 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    36 / 100
    ▲ + 0.9 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    38 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    71 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    67 / 100
    ▼ -1.5 5y
Climate futures

Tajikistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Tajikistan is projected to warm +4.4 °C, with annual rainfall changing +36 mm.

Temperature

+4.4 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.2 °C → +4.4 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.5 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +4.7 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+36 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+35 mm → +36 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+16 mm → +27 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

27%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
49% → 27%
Current path SSP3-7.0
49% → 27%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 41% today.

River flooding

1.7%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
1.4% → 1.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
1.4% → 1.7%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.7% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Tajikistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.6 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
3.8 / 10
Peers

Tajikistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Central Asia
#4 of 5median 50
  1. 1KazakhstanMedium 45
  2. 2KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  3. 3UzbekistanMedium 50
  4. 4TajikistanMedium 52
  5. 5TurkmenistanMedium 53
region
Asia
#31 of 48median 47
  1. 27TurkeyMedium 49
  2. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
  3. 29ThailandMedium 50
  4. 30VietnamMedium 51
  5. 31TajikistanMedium 52
  6. 32LaosMedium 52
  7. 33LebanonMedium 53
  8. 34NepalMedium 53
  9. 35TurkmenistanMedium 53
  10. 36North KoreaMedium 54
income group
Low income
#6 of 37median 55
  1. 2KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  2. 3ComorosMedium 49
  3. 4TogoMedium 50
  4. 5ZimbabweMedium 51
  5. 6TajikistanMedium 52
  6. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  7. 8GuineaMedium 53
  8. 9Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  9. 10KenyaMedium 53
  10. 11NepalMedium 53

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Tajikistan?
Tajikistan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 52 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Tajikistan's risk?
Tajikistan's highest pressures are governance (71, high) and adaptation (67). Its strongest area is nature (36).
How might Tajikistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 46% of Tajikistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 58 to 67 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Tajikistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Tajikistan is on track to warm by +4.4 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +36 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Tajikistan?
The share of Tajikistan under high water stress is projected to move from 41% today to 27% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Tajikistan?
The share of Tajikistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.7% today to 1.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Tajikistan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.