Climate risk in Dushanbe
Tajikistan
Main risks in Dushanbe
On earthquakes, Dushanbe ranks above at least 95% of the world's 626 large cities.
- Earthquakes
- severe shaking on firm ground (0.4 g), more on soft ground [1]
- Higher than 95% of the world's large cities.
- For comparison: Tehran 0.41 g, Manila 0.39 g, Nagoya 0.39 g.
- g is the pull of gravity: from about 0.1 g, shaking is strong and can cause light damage to buildings.
0.4 g Natural Earth Earthquake shaking on firm ground, 10% chance in 50 years
This week in Dushanbe
This week's forecast risk around the city, by day and by hour, and the hazard events near it now. [2]
This week's forecast for the city cannot be shown here right now.
Open the city on the mapThe Earth right now
The Earth's pulse reads the whole world, not this city, so it is the same on every city's page.
Earth's pulse, from 0 to 100. It rises with the number of people in the path of disasters now under way; 90 matches the 2004 tsunami.
Open the live mapWhere else Dushanbe stands out
+2.6 °C
Warming by 2050, if emissions level off [3]
Higher than 88% of the world's large cities.
For comparison: Houston +2.5 °C, Ankara +2.5 °C, Tehran +2.5 °C.
Dushanbe's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, if emissions level off [4] [3]
By the 2050s, Dushanbe's climate comes closest to that of Gaziantep (Turkey) today, though no large city matches it well.
+1.9 °C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.3 °C
Average daily high, warmest month
+1.8 °C
Average nightly low, coldest month
+7%
Precipitation over the year
If emissions keep rising, Batman (Turkey) comes closest, though the match is only partial.
Share this comparison
Climates are compared on seasonal temperature and rainfall alone, each difference weighed against the city's usual swings from year to year (the method of Mahony et al. 2017); heat waves, the heat of city streets and the rising sea are left out. 2 of the 3 estimates from the climate models, the middle one and the two ends of their range, point to Gaziantep. [5]
Everything else measured
From the highest among the world's 626 large cities to the lowest.
| Reading | Dushanbe | Among 626 large cities |
|---|---|---|
| River flood depth, 100-year event [6] | 15 cm | higher than 88% of large cities |
| Hottest day of 2025 [7] | 39.5 °C | higher than 74% of large cities |
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C [7] | 25 days | higher than 69% of large cities |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 [7] | 5 days | higher than 33% of large cities |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C [7] | 18 nights | higher than 25% of large cities |
| Drought risk [8] | Medium-High | the same grade as 38% of large cities; higher than 12%, lower than 50% |
| Water stress [8] | Low: under 10% of the available water drawn | lowest grade, like 30% of large cities |
| Share of land sinking over 1 cm a year, within 15 km [9] | 0% | like 80% of large cities |
| Land burned in an average year [10] | 0% | like 84% of large cities |
| Tropical cyclone wind, once in 100 years [11] | No hurricane or typhoon reaches here | |
| Share of the land around the centre (a 10 km square) that a 100-year flood from the sea puts under 0.5 m of water or more [6] | Far from the sea: no coastal flooding |
- Land subsidence comes from a model of satellite radar measurements from 2013 to 2019 in 2 km squares, read over all the land within 15 km of the centre rather than at one point.
- Water stress is the share of the available water drawn every year. Drought risk is how often droughts come, against the area's own usual rain, and how many people and how much farmland they would reach. Both are graded on WRI's own scale.
- Water stress and drought risk have no rank in the country: they are steps of a scale, and many cities share one.
- Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here.
The nearest large cities
Distance from centre to centre.
- Tashkent · Uzbekistan · 310 km
- Shymkent · Kazakhstan · 420 km
- Kabul · Afghanistan · 450 km
- Saidu Sharīf · Pakistan · 530 km
Large cities in Tajikistan
Sources
- GSHAP Global Seismic Hazard Map: earthquake shaking
- Environment and Climate Change Canada: Global Deterministic Prediction System (GDPS): the week's forecast map
- NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6): warming, the 2050s comparison
- TerraClimate: the 2050s comparison
- Mahony, Cannon, Wang and Aitken (2017). A closer look at novel climates: new methods and insights at continental to landscape scales. Global Change Biology 23, 3934-3955: how climates are compared
- Aqueduct Floods Hazard Maps: river flood depth, coastal floods
- ERA5 Single Levels Daily Statistics: hottest day, hot days, heavy rain, nights
- Aqueduct 4.0 Water Risk Framework: drought risk, water stress
- Global Land Subsidence Mapping Reveals Widespread Loss of Aquifer Storage Capacity: sinking land
- Global Biomass Burning at 500 m (GFED500): burned land
- IRIS: the Imperial College Storm Model dataset: tropical cyclone wind
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on GSHAP, ECCC, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, TerraClimate, WRI, ECMWF, HydroShare, GFED500, IRIS
APA
Criora. (2026). Dushanbe, Tajikistan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 4, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/TJK/dushanbe BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_TJK_dushanbe_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Dushanbe, Tajikistan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/TJK/dushanbe},
urldate = {2026-11-04}
} The figures may be reused on the terms of their sources, which this page names.
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