Climate risk in Tashkent
Tashkent, Uzbekistan · 2.2M people in the urban area
What threatens Tashkent most
- Earthquake
- Very high GSHAP
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Uzbekistan
Tashkent is projected to be +2.8°C warmer by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Shymkent: +2.8°C.
Tashkent's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Tashkent is projected to have the climate that Diyarbakır (Turkey) has today.
+1.9°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.5°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+9%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Tashkent would have the climate that Diyarbakır (Turkey) has today.
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How close the match is: 1.7 σ to the climate of Diyarbakır today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Tashkent stands out
4.04 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Shymkent: 2.38 m/s².
Higher than in 96% of the world's 627 large cities
49 days
Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C
Shymkent: 47 days.
Higher than in 81% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Tashkent
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Tashkent | Among large cities | In Uzbekistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 49 days | Among large cities: above 81% | |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 29 days | Among large cities: above 29% | |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 40.3°C | Among large cities: above 79% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.8°C | Among large cities: above 96% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 1 day | Among large cities: above 7% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 4.04 m/s² | Among large cities: above 96% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Tashkent on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Tashkent on the live map
4.04 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Uzbekistan
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Tashkent, Uzbekistan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/UZB/tashkent BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_UZB_tashkent_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Tashkent, Uzbekistan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/UZB/tashkent},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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