Climate risk in Kabul
Kabul, Afghanistan · 3.3M people in the urban area
What threatens Kabul most
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- High GSHAP
- River flood
- 0.22 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Afghanistan
A 100-year river flood would stand 0.22 m deep in the centre of Kabul.
Bannu: Dry at the city centre point.
Kabul's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Kabul is projected to have the climate that Mashhad (Iran) has today.
+2°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.1°C
Highest in the warmest month
+2.2°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+2%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Kabul would have the climate that Dushanbe (Tajikistan) has today.
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How close the match is: 0.6 σ to the climate of Mashhad today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Kabul stands out
2.55 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Bannu: 2.25 m/s².
Higher than in 85% of the world's 627 large cities
+2.4°C
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions
Bannu: +2.1°C.
Higher than in 76% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Kabul
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Kabul | Among large cities | In Afghanistan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 0 days | ||
| Hottest day of 2025 | 33.6°C | Among large cities: above 26% | |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.4°C | Among large cities: above 76% | |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 2 days | Among large cities: above 16% | |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.22 m | Among large cities: above 90% | |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 2.55 m/s² | Among large cities: above 85% | |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Kabul on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Kabul on the live map
2.55 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Kabul
- Bannu · Pakistan
- Peshawar · Pakistan
- Saidu Sharīf · Pakistan
- Abbottabad · Pakistan
Large cities in Afghanistan
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Kabul, Afghanistan: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/AFG/kabul BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_AFG_kabul_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Kabul, Afghanistan: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/AFG/kabul},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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