What drives Afghanistan's risk?

Afghanistan's highest pressures are governance (83, critical) and adaptation (75). Its strongest area is nature (47).

How might Afghanistan's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 20% of Afghanistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 68 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Afghanistan warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Afghanistan is on track to warm by +4.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +13 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How will water stress change in Afghanistan?

The share of Afghanistan under high water stress is projected to move from 45% today to 46% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Afghanistan?

The share of Afghanistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 0.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Afghanistan's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Afghanistan Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Southern Asia
Income: Low income
ISO: AFG

Afghanistan: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Afghanistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

High 65 / 100

51 Climate Medium
47 Nature -1.5 Medium
69 Social High
83 Governance Critical
75 Adaptation -1.5 High

Which hazards threaten Afghanistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

7.3FloodHigh
7.1DRR capacityHigh

Afghanistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Southern Asia

#9 of 9 · median 56

Asia

#47 of 48 · median 47

Low income

#35 of 37 · median 55

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Afghanistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Afghanistan is projected to warm +4.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +13 mm.

+4.5 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.2 °C → +4.5 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.5 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +4.7 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+13 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +15 mm → +13 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +13 mm → +7 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

46%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 47% → 46%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 47% → 54%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 45% today.

0.7%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 1.4% → 0.7%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.9% → 1.3%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	20.0 % of total energy	2022	79.8	+11.4	0.0
Flood Risk	7.30 0-10	2026	73.0	+21.0	+7.5
Land Surface Temperature	30.9 deg C change	2021	72.3	+7.6	+4.8
Access to Clean Fuels	36.1 % population	2022	63.9	+53.6	+55.3
PM2.5 Air Pollution	46.1 ug/m3	2020	51.3	+32.1	+25.1
Heating Degree Days	5843 degree days	2020	40.1	+38.6	+32.5
Cooling Degree Days	1848 degree days	2020	25.3	-26.5	-25.7
Renewable Electricity Share	78.2 % of total	2021	21.8	-53.3	-61.2
Energy Intensity	2.94 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	10.5	-6.1	-7.9
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.12 kt CO2e per capita	2020	2.9	-4.1	-3.2
Methane Emissions Per Capita	0.42 kt CO2e per capita	2020	2.7	-5.4	-3.5
Heat Index	1.26 index	2020	0.9	+0.8	-1.2
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.22 metric tons	2020	0.6	-7.1	-10.3
Drought Index (SPEI)	-2.57 index	2021	0.0	-46.4	-36.4
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	-5.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Vector Disease Change	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+34.2	+34.2
Dam Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	98.7	+5.4	+5.1
Agricultural Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	98.6	+6.8	+10.1
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.98 0-1	2023	98.0	+13.8	+16.2
Forest Area	1.85 % of land	2022	98.0	+31.7	+13.1
Agriculture GDP Share	34.7 % of GDP	2023	96.7	+77.8	+74.6
Protected Areas	3.60 % of land	2023	96.4	+7.5	+3.2
Earthquake Risk	8.80 0-10	2026	88.0	+53.0	+20.5
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.85 0-1	2023	84.6	+8.3	+4.4
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.85 0-1	2023	84.6	+22.4	+23.6
Protected Biome Areas	0.84 0-1	2023	84.1	+43.1	+39.2
Freshwater Withdrawal	43.0 % of internal resources	2021	79.7	+29.4	+4.1
Rural Population	0.79 0-1	2023	78.7	+36.1	+34.1
Age Dependency Ratio	0.78 0-1	2023	78.2	+25.5	+32.6
Slum Population	0.74 0-1	2023	74.0	+57.5	+55.2
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.71 0-1	2023	71.0	+50.6	+43.1
Agricultural Land	58.7 % of land	2022	70.5	+23.2	+30.2
Dependency Ratio	0.70 0-1	2023	70.3	+63.5	+66.4
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.70 0-1	2023	70.2	-16.3	-7.6
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+36.4	+45.5
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.9	+8.3	+10.6
Projected Warm Period Change	0.64 0-1	2023	64.5	-3.3	-0.8
Paved Roads	0.64 0-1	2023	64.1	+9.0	+37.3
Food Production Index	111 index	2022	62.1	-5.0	+2.1
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.44 0-1	2023	44.2	+4.6	+16.6
Projected Population Change	0.44 0-1	2023	43.9	+21.6	+20.3
Food Import Dependency	0.43 0-1	2023	42.7	+21.0	+23.3
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.37 0-1	2023	36.8	+29.3	+9.2
Water Dependency Ratio	0.29 0-1	2023	28.7	+21.8	+21.7
Disaster Preparedness	0.28 0-1	2023	27.5	-2.5	+2.5
Urban Concentration	0.21 0-1	2023	21.3	-36.1	-34.1
Natural Capital Dependency	0.20 0-1	2023	20.1	-1.7	-5.6
Projected Groundwater Change	0.18 0-1	2023	17.9	-8.3	-10.7
Child Malnutrition	0.15 0-1	2023	14.9	+1.1	-2.9
Electricity Access	0.15 0-1	2023	14.9	+14.9	+14.9
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.07 0-1	2023	7.3	-11.1	-4.8
Threatened Mammal Species	11.0 count	2018	5.8	+0.6	-1.0
Forest Depletion	0.32 % of GNI	2021	1.8	+1.7	+1.8
Water Stress	54.8 %	2021	1.4	+1.1	0.0
Natural Resource Depletion	0.34 % of GNI	2021	0.6	-1.5	-2.0
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-37.3	-36.7
Population Below 5m	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-14.8	-17.8
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	-25.0
Tree Cover Loss	26.0 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Uprooted People	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+41.0	+46.5
School Gender Parity	0.64 ratio	2018	100.0	+78.0	+80.3
Hospital Beds	0.36 per 1,000	2021	100.0	+16.1	+14.7
Gender Labor Ratio	7.34 ratio F/M	2023	100.0	+73.0	+60.2
Adult Literacy Rate	37.0 %	2021	99.9	+93.4	+90.5
Internet Users	17.7 % population	2023	92.6	+71.7	+76.1
Development and Deprivation	8.90 0-10	2026	89.0	+59.0	+63.5
Labor Participation	38.6 % (15+)	2023	76.9	+46.8	+45.7
Fertility Rate	4.84 births per woman	2023	76.1	+52.8	+52.9
Safe Drinking Water	30.0 % population	2022	74.5	+53.0	+44.3
Recent Shocks	7.10 0-10	2026	71.0	+70.0	+68.0
Food Security	6.60 0-10	2026	66.0	+48.0	+48.0
Life Expectancy	66.0 years	2023	62.1	+22.6	+28.9
Undernourishment	30.4 % population	2022	57.2	+51.4	+51.6
Aid Dependency	5.40 0-10	2026	54.0	+29.0	+33.0
Net Migration	-48958 persons	2023	53.4	-1.6	-1.5
GDP Growth	2.27 % annual	2023	49.9	+1.0	+2.1
Communicable Disease Deaths	32.9 %	2019	49.5	+33.4	+35.3
Under-5 Mortality Rate	55.5 per 1,000	2023	47.7	+35.5	+37.2
Overweight Adults	48.6 % adults	2022	47.4	-8.6	-7.3
ESG Performance Score	2.04 0-100	2018	42.5	+17.5	+16.1
Children Under 5	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	+30.0	+28.0
Unemployment Rate	14.0 %	2023	39.7	+25.5	+28.1
Primary School Enrollment	110 % gross	2019	34.0	-10.7	-11.1
Health Conditions	2.20 0-10	2026	22.0	+14.0	+18.0
Access to Electricity	85.3 % population	2023	16.6	+16.6	+16.6
Aging Population	2.38 % population	2023	2.3	-14.1	-11.5
Population Density	62.2 people/km2	2022	0.3	-0.2	-0.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Scientific Articles	169 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	+0.2
Political Stability	-2.48 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	99.7	+49.9	+44.1
Government Effectiveness	-1.99 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	89.7	+38.0	+39.0
Voice and Accountability	-1.85 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	87.1	+38.2	+21.6
INFORM Governance Index	8.60 0-10	2026	86.0	+30.0	+28.5
Rule of Law	-1.65 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	83.0	+30.0	+29.9
Healthcare Access	8.00 0-10	2026	80.0	+43.0	+47.0
Regulatory Quality	-1.27 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	75.3	+22.5	+20.7
Control of Corruption	-1.15 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	73.1	+17.5	+14.8
Disaster Risk Reduction	7.10 0-10	2026	71.0	+29.5	+35.0
Communication Infrastructure	6.60 0-10	2026	66.0	+46.0	+51.5
Physical Infrastructure	6.00 0-10	2026	60.0	+30.0	+30.5
Women in Parliament	27.0 % seats	2021	55.9	-5.4	-13.1
Legal Rights Strength	10.0 0-12	2019	16.7	-33.3	-33.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Education (Readiness)	0.06 0-1	2023	93.6	+20.5	+20.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.14 0-1	2023	85.7	+42.6	+37.4
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.16 0-1	2023	84.0	+19.7	+16.2
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.18 0-1	2023	81.5	+29.5	+29.7
Doing Business Score	0.21 0-1	2023	78.6	+20.2	+27.5
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.25 0-1	2023	74.6	+22.0	+21.0
ICT Infrastructure	0.30 0-1	2023	70.0	+22.3	+24.5
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.70 0-1	2023	29.9	-21.6	-13.0

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Afghanistan?
Afghanistan: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure. Its overall risk score is 65 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Afghanistan's risk?
Afghanistan's highest pressures are governance (83, critical) and adaptation (75). Its strongest area is nature (47).
How might Afghanistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 20% of Afghanistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 68 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Afghanistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Afghanistan is on track to warm by +4.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +13 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Afghanistan?
The share of Afghanistan under high water stress is projected to move from 45% today to 46% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Afghanistan?
The share of Afghanistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 0.7% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Afghanistan's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.