What drives Somalia's risk?

Somalia's highest pressures are governance (87, critical) and social (82). Its strongest area is nature (50).

How might Somalia's climate change by 2080?

Somalia's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Somalia warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Somalia is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +53 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Somalia's coast?

Coastal sea level along Somalia is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Somalia?

The share of Somalia under high water stress is projected to move from 12% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Somalia?

The share of Somalia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.4% today to 6.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Somalia's risk data last updated?

Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Somalia Climate risk profile and hazard map

Name: Somalia country risk profile
Creator: Criora
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Region: Africa
Subregion: Eastern Africa
Income: Low income
ISO: SOM

Somalia: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Somalia, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

High 68 / 100

59 Climate Medium
50 Nature -0.2 Medium
82 Social Critical
87 Governance Critical
65 Adaptation -1.7 High

Which hazards threaten Somalia most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

7.8FloodHigh
4.7DRR capacityMedium

Somalia in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Eastern Africa

#18 of 18 · median 54

Africa

#54 of 54 · median 54

Low income

#37 of 37 · median 55

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Somalia: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Somalia is projected to warm +2.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +53 mm.

+2.6 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +1.6 °C → +2.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.3 °C → +1.7 °C

Hottest month +2.7 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+53 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +27 mm → +53 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +22 mm → +25 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 9.8% → 1%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 7.9% → 9.3%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 12% today.

6.1%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 5.2% → 6.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 5.6% → 7.4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.4% today.

Sea level

Somalia: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 3 of its largest cities.

Mogadishu, Max depth 1.8 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.25 m → +0.81 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.22 m → +0.57 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Access to Clean Fuels	5.40 % population	2023	94.6	+86.3	+7.2
Renewable Electricity Share	11.2 % of total	2021	88.8	+13.7	+12.8
Land Surface Temperature	38.7 deg C change	2021	88.4	+23.7	+13.6
Cooling Degree Days	6119 degree days	2024	81.6	+27.5	+12.4
Flood Risk	7.80 0-10	2026	78.0	+26.0	+30.5
Coastal Protection Needed	53.3 % coast	2024	48.1	-25.6	-37.5
Energy Intensity	6.51 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	43.2	+24.0	+14.7
Drought Index (SPEI)	-0.86 index	2023	33.2	-10.9	-7.4
PM2.5 Air Pollution	24.5 ug/m3	2020	24.5	+5.3	-9.7
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.39 kt CO2e per capita	2020	9.2	+2.2	+2.8
Heat Index	13.9 days	2024	9.2	+4.9	+3.7
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.04 metric tons	2020	0.0	-7.7	-1.1
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0
Renewable Energy Share	95.4 % of total energy	2022	0.0	-68.4	-28.7
Heating Degree Days	2.11 degree days	2024	0.0	-13.0	-0.8

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dam Capacity	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+6.7	+5.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+34.2	+27.7
Dependency Ratio	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+93.2	+34.3
Protected Areas	0.00 % of land	2024	100.0	+11.7	+11.6
Health Expenditure Per Capita	1.00 0-1	2023	99.8	+15.6	+3.6
Agricultural Capacity	0.99 0-1	2023	99.5	+7.7	+1.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.97 0-1	2023	97.3	+56.3	+32.7
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.93 0-1	2023	93.1	+16.8	+12.9
Forest Area	9.17 % of land	2023	90.3	+24.0	+12.8
Paved Roads	0.89 0-1	2023	88.7	+33.7	+8.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.87 0-1	2023	87.4	+34.7	+16.1
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.84 0-1	2023	84.5	-2.0	-8.4
Freshwater Withdrawal	55.0 % of internal resources	2022	84.2	+33.9	+42.4
Agricultural Land	70.3 % of land	2023	81.2	+36.9	+26.9
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.79 0-1	2023	79.5	+17.4	+10.3
Food Production Index	98.9 index	2022	73.8	+6.7	+14.8
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.68 0-1	2023	68.2	+29.0	-11.8
Tsunami Risk	6.70 0-10	2026	67.0	+56.0	+67.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.67 0-1	2023	66.8	-1.0	-2.3
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+36.4	+33.4
Forest Depletion	11.3 % of GNI	2021	64.4	+64.3	+55.2
Projected Population Change	0.60 0-1	2023	60.5	+38.2	+13.0
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.60 0-1	2023	60.0	+2.4	+5.9
Water Dependency Ratio	0.59 0-1	2023	59.2	+52.3	+39.4
Child Malnutrition	0.59 0-1	2023	59.1	+45.3	+38.0
Rural Population	0.56 0-1	2023	56.1	+13.5	-1.7
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.55 0-1	2023	55.1	+17.9	+25.4
Electricity Access	0.50 0-1	2023	50.2	+50.2	+9.0
Projected Groundwater Change	0.50 0-1	2023	49.9	+23.7	+21.7
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.47 0-1	2023	47.1	+39.6	+42.2
Urban Concentration	0.44 0-1	2023	43.9	-13.5	+1.7
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.33 0-1	2023	32.7	+14.4	+10.9
Disaster Preparedness	0.25 0-1	2023	25.0	-5.0	-10.0
Population Below 5m	0.21 0-1	2023	21.2	+6.4	+10.9
Natural Resource Depletion	11.3 % of GNI	2021	19.7	+17.6	+12.2
Natural Capital Dependency	0.19 0-1	2023	19.4	-2.4	-0.1
Earthquake Risk	1.20 0-10	2026	12.0	-23.0	+11.0
Threatened Mammal Species	18.0 count	2022	8.5	+3.3	0.0
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.02 0-1	2023	2.4	-11.1	-2.8
Water Stress	24.5 %	2022	0.6	+0.3	+0.4
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-39.6	-35.2
Tree Cover Loss	141 hectares	2024	0.0	-0.1	-0.1

		Year		vs world	vs region
Recent Shocks	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+99.0	+94.0
Uprooted People	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+41.0	+42.0
Primary School Enrollment	20.9 % gross	2023	100.0	+57.1	+55.8
Fertility Rate	6.01 births per woman	2024	99.7	+76.7	+40.7
Development and Deprivation	9.90 0-10	2026	99.0	+69.0	+21.5
Undernourishment	53.2 % population	2023	98.1	+92.9	+69.8
Food Security	9.70 0-10	2026	97.0	+79.0	+50.0
Unmet Contraception Need	36.6 %	2019	96.8	+61.2	+44.1
Communicable Disease Deaths	63.8 %	2021	96.0	+59.4	+20.1
Hospital Beds	0.87 per 1,000	2019	94.5	+14.1	+0.4
Sanitation Access	16.4 % population	2024	90.9	+49.1	+7.9
Under-5 Mortality Rate	101 per 1,000	2024	87.3	+75.4	+45.8
Life Expectancy	59.0 years	2024	86.4	+46.7	+21.1
Aid Dependency	8.50 0-10	2026	85.0	+60.0	+44.5
Poverty Rate (National)	55.4 % population	2022	84.3	+57.3	+7.7
Labor Participation	34.8 % (15+)	2024	82.7	+53.8	+44.7
Internet Users	27.9 % population	2024	78.8	+59.3	+14.2
Education Expenditure	6.96 % of govt	2024	78.2	+20.2	+25.6
Children Under 5	7.80 0-10	2026	78.0	+67.0	+41.5
Adult Literacy Rate	54.1 %	2022	71.3	+56.9	+13.5
Gender Labor Ratio	43.8 ratio F/M	2024	62.0	+36.6	+42.2
Unemployment Rate	18.9 %	2024	54.5	+40.4	+38.9
Net Migration	26859 persons	2024	53.1	+1.0	+1.2
Access to Electricity	50.3 % population	2023	52.5	+52.5	+7.4
GDP Growth	4.22 % annual	2023	46.8	-2.1	0.0
Overweight Adults	34.9 % adults	2022	30.2	-25.8	+1.5
Health Conditions	1.70 0-10	2026	17.0	+9.0	-19.0
Aging Population	2.59 % population	2024	2.7	-14.3	-1.8
ESG Performance Score	4.95 0-100	2020	0.8	-15.7	-59.6
Population Density	29.3 people/km2	2023	0.1	-0.4	-0.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Legal Rights Strength	0.00 0-12	2019	100.0	+50.0	+50.0
Scientific Articles	106 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Political Stability	-2.38 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	97.6	+47.8	+37.3
Rule of Law	-2.21 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	94.2	+41.3	+30.0
INFORM Governance Index	9.00 0-10	2026	90.0	+34.0	+23.5
Government Effectiveness	-1.98 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	89.6	+37.9	+23.1
Regulatory Quality	-1.88 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	87.6	+34.8	+22.2
Control of Corruption	-1.73 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	84.7	+29.1	+19.7
Healthcare Access	8.40 0-10	2026	84.0	+47.0	+19.0
Voice and Accountability	-1.66 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	83.3	+34.4	+19.4
Women in Parliament	19.6 % seats	2024	69.2	+10.1	+5.7
Communication Infrastructure	6.80 0-10	2026	68.0	+48.0	+18.0
Physical Infrastructure	6.00 0-10	2026	60.0	+30.0	-7.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	4.70 0-10	2026	47.0	+5.5	-8.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.03 0-1	2023	97.3	+33.0	+24.3
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.07 0-1	2023	92.6	+40.6	+30.0
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.13 0-1	2023	86.8	+34.2	+22.6
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.16 0-1	2023	83.9	+40.8	+32.1
ICT Infrastructure	0.32 0-1	2023	68.0	+20.3	+3.7
Doing Business Score	0.62 0-1	2023	37.7	-20.7	-31.7

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

Score a site in Somalia →

But what about your location?

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Somalia: ask your AI assistant

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Somalia: how will flood and heat risk change by 2050?
Eastern Africa: which countries are most at risk?

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Somalia?
Somalia: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure. Its overall risk score is 68 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Somalia's risk?
Somalia's highest pressures are governance (87, critical) and social (82). Its strongest area is nature (50).
How might Somalia's climate change by 2080?
Somalia's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 66 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Somalia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Somalia is on track to warm by +2.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +53 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.7 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Somalia's coast?
Coastal sea level along Somalia is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.57 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Somalia?
The share of Somalia under high water stress is projected to move from 12% today to 1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Somalia?
The share of Somalia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.4% today to 6.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Somalia's risk data last updated?
Updated October 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.