+2.5 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.6 °C → +2.5 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.4 °C → +1.9 °C
Hottest month +3.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Nigeria Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Western Africa
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- NGA
Nigeria: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Nigeria, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
High 61 / 100
5y
- 62 Climate High
- 32 Nature +0.1 Low
- 55 Social Medium
- 79 Governance High
- 75 Adaptation -1.5 High
Which hazards threaten Nigeria most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 8.3FloodCritical
Nigeria in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
15
Western Africa
#15 of 16 · median 5447
Africa
#47 of 54 · median 5349
Lower middle income
#49 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Nigeria: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Nigeria is projected to warm +2.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +238 mm.
+238 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +189 mm → +238 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +129 mm → +151 mm
Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
11%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 15% → 11%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 19% → 31%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 7.4% today.
3.2%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 3.5% → 3.2%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 3.2% → 3.1%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.8% today.
Sea level
Nigeria: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 4 of its largest cities.
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.26 m → +0.82 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.23 m → +0.58 m
Largest exposed cities
PopulationMax depth
Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Coastal Protection Needed | 97.4 % coast | 96.7 |
Flood Risk | 8.30 0-10 | 83.0 |
Land Surface Temperature | 35.2 deg C change | 81.2 |
Cooling Degree Days | 5892 degree days | 80.7 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 23.8 % of total | 76.2 |
Access to Clean Fuels | 25.6 % population | 74.4 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 56.5 ug/m3 | 64.4 |
Energy Imports | -66.3 % of energy use | 63.5 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 55.7 % of total | 53.9 |
Energy Intensity | 6.57 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 31.1 |
Renewable Energy Share | 80.3 % of total energy | 16.6 |
Heat Index | 19.5 index | 14.3 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.19 kt CO2e per capita | 4.5 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 333 kg oil eq per capita | 1.6 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.52 metric tons | 1.6 |
Heating Degree Days | 3.17 degree days | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.99 0-1 | 98.5 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.98 0-1 | 97.5 |
Dam Capacity | 0.94 0-1 | 94.3 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.94 0-1 | 93.5 |
Agricultural Land | 76.6 % of land | 90.6 |
Protected Areas | 11.6 % of land | 88.4 |
Water Bodies Extent | 12.5 % of land | 87.5 |
Paved Roads | 0.86 0-1 | 85.7 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.77 0-1 | 76.8 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.75 0-1 | 75.4 |
Forest Area | 23.4 % of land | 75.3 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.72 0-1 | 72.0 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.69 0-1 | 69.2 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.69 0-1 | 68.8 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.67 0-1 | 66.7 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 22.7 % of GDP | 63.2 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.60 0-1 | 60.2 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.57 0-1 | 56.8 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.56 0-1 | 56.1 |
Food Production Index | 120 index | 54.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.53 0-1 | 53.5 |
Urban Concentration | 0.51 0-1 | 50.7 |
Slum Population | 0.49 0-1 | 49.4 |
Rural Population | 0.49 0-1 | 49.3 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.48 0-1 | 47.9 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.43 0-1 | 43.5 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 5.64 % of internal resources | 42.4 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.41 0-1 | 41.2 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.40 0-1 | 39.7 |
Electricity Access | 0.39 0-1 | 39.2 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.32 0-1 | 31.6 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.31 0-1 | 31.4 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.23 0-1 | 22.8 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.22 0-1 | 22.4 |
Population Below 5m | 0.21 0-1 | 21.3 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.20 0-1 | 20.4 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.17 0-1 | 17.5 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.17 0-1 | 16.5 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 31.0 count | 16.2 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 2.74 % of GNI | 4.8 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.05 0-1 | 4.8 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.02 0-1 | 2.5 |
Tree Cover Loss | 97193 hectares | 1.5 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Water Stress | 9.67 % | 0.3 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Forest Depletion | 0.00 % of GNI | 0.0 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Life Expectancy | 54.5 years | 100.0 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 65.2 % | 100.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 105 per 1,000 | 91.3 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.44 0-100 | 86.9 |
Education Expenditure | 4.40 % of govt | 83.0 |
Uprooted People | 8.20 0-10 | 82.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 7.60 0-10 | 76.0 |
Safe Drinking Water | 29.0 % population | 75.6 |
Children Under 5 | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Sanitation Access | 32.0 % population | 69.9 |
Fertility Rate | 4.48 births per woman | 69.5 |
Internet Users | 39.2 % population | 68.4 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 23.9 % | 65.8 |
Poverty Rate (National) | 40.1 % population | 63.9 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 63.2 % | 58.5 |
Food Security | 5.60 0-10 | 56.0 |
Net Migration | -57936 persons | 53.1 |
GDP Growth | 2.86 % annual | 48.9 |
Primary School Enrollment | 86.7 % gross | 45.4 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 7.10 % | 43.7 |
Health Conditions | 4.20 0-10 | 42.0 |
Access to Electricity | 61.2 % population | 41.0 |
Gini Coefficient | 35.1 0-100 | 35.8 |
Aid Dependency | 3.50 0-10 | 35.0 |
Undernourishment | 18.0 % population | 31.8 |
Overweight Adults | 34.3 % adults | 29.4 |
School Gender Parity | 0.97 ratio | 28.7 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 95.6 ratio F/M | 9.2 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.07 % | 8.4 |
Labor Participation | 83.4 % (15+) | 8.2 |
Recent Shocks | 0.60 0-10 | 6.0 |
Aging Population | 3.03 % population | 4.2 |
Population Density | 245 people/km2 | 1.3 |
Patent Applications | 410 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 9408 count | 99.0 |
R&D Expenditure | 0.28 % of GDP | 95.6 |
Women in Parliament | 3.91 % seats | 93.6 |
Healthcare Access | 9.20 0-10 | 92.0 |
Political Stability | -1.77 -2.5 to +2.5 | 85.4 |
INFORM Governance Index | 7.20 0-10 | 72.0 |
Control of Corruption | -1.04 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.8 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.94 -2.5 to +2.5 | 68.7 |
Rule of Law | -0.89 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.8 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.85 -2.5 to +2.5 | 67.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 6.10 0-10 | 61.0 |
Voice and Accountability | -0.55 -2.5 to +2.5 | 61.0 |
Communication Infrastructure | 5.50 0-10 | 55.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 9.00 0-12 | 25.0 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.01 0-1 | 99.1 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.07 0-1 | 93.0 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.19 0-1 | 81.4 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.27 0-1 | 73.4 |
Doing Business Score | 0.27 0-1 | 72.8 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 68.1 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.33 0-1 | 66.5 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.36 0-1 | 64.3 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.40 0-1 | 59.7 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Nigeria →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Nigeria.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Nigeria?
Nigeria: high governance pressure, led by flood exposure. Its overall risk score is 61 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Nigeria's risk?
Nigeria's highest pressures are governance (79, high) and adaptation (75). Its strongest area is nature (32).
How might Nigeria's climate change by 2080?
Nigeria's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 74 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Nigeria warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Nigeria is on track to warm by +2.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +238 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Nigeria's coast?
Coastal sea level along Nigeria is projected to rise by +0.82 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.58 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Nigeria?
The share of Nigeria under high water stress is projected to move from 7.4% today to 11% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Nigeria?
The share of Nigeria exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.8% today to 3.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Nigeria's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.