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Nigeria

Region Africa Subregion Western Africa Income Lower middle income ISO NGA

Nigeria carries high governance pressure, led by flood exposure and hazard and exposure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Nigeria, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
High
60 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    62 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    32 / 100
    ▲ + 0.1 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    52 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    79 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    75 / 100
    ▼ -1.5 5y
Climate futures

Nigeria: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Nigeria is projected to warm +2.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +238 mm.

Temperature

+2.5 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+1.6 °C → +2.5 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.4 °C → +1.9 °C

Hottest month +3.2 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+238 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+189 mm → +238 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+129 mm → +151 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Nigeria: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 4 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.26 m → +0.82 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.23 m → +0.58 m

Water stress

11%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
15% → 11%
Current path SSP3-7.0
19% → 31%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 7.4% today.

River flooding

3.2%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
3.5% → 3.2%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
3.2% → 3.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.8% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Nigeria most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
8.3 / 10
Peers

Nigeria in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Western Africa
#15 of 16median 54
  1. 7SenegalMedium 53
  2. 8Burkina FasoMedium 54
  3. 9GambiaMedium 54
  4. 10BeninMedium 54
  5. 11Sierra LeoneMedium 54
  6. 12MauritaniaMedium 57
  7. 13LiberiaMedium 59
  8. 14MaliMedium 60
  9. 15NigeriaHigh 60
  10. 16NigerHigh 61
region
Africa
#47 of 54median 53
  1. 43MadagascarMedium 57
  2. 44LiberiaMedium 59
  3. 45MozambiqueMedium 59
  4. 46MaliMedium 60
  5. 47NigeriaHigh 60
  6. 48NigerHigh 61
  7. 49Dem. Rep. CongoHigh 61
  8. 50S. SudanHigh 63
  9. 51SudanHigh 64
  10. 52Central African Rep.High 64
income group
Lower middle income
#49 of 53median 49
  1. 44CongoMedium 56
  2. 45HondurasMedium 57
  3. 46IndiaMedium 57
  4. 47Papua New GuineaMedium 58
  5. 48IraqMedium 59
  6. 49NigeriaHigh 60
  7. 50SudanHigh 64
  8. 51PakistanHigh 64
  9. 52SyriaHigh 65
  10. 53YemenHigh 66

Put two countries head to head

Compare Nigeria against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Nigeria?
Nigeria carries high governance pressure, led by flood exposure and hazard and exposure. Its overall risk score is 60 out of 100 (high), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Nigeria's risk?
Nigeria's highest pressures are governance (79, high) and adaptation (75). Its strongest area is nature (32).
How might Nigeria's climate change by 2080?
Nigeria's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 74 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Nigeria warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Nigeria is on track to warm by +2.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +238 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Nigeria's coast?
Coastal sea level along Nigeria is projected to rise by +0.82 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.58 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Nigeria?
The share of Nigeria under high water stress is projected to move from 7.4% today to 11% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Nigeria?
The share of Nigeria exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.8% today to 3.2% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Nigeria's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.