What drives Mozambique's risk?

Mozambique's highest pressures are governance (78, high) and adaptation (74). Its strongest area is nature (36).

How might Mozambique's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Mozambique's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 73 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Mozambique warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mozambique is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -22 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How much will sea levels rise along Mozambique's coast?

Coastal sea level along Mozambique is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will water stress change in Mozambique?

The share of Mozambique under high water stress is projected to move from 4% today to 4.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Mozambique?

The share of Mozambique exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.8% today to 4.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Mozambique's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Mozambique Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Africa
Subregion: Eastern Africa
Income: Low income
ISO: MOZ

Mozambique: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Mozambique, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 59 / 100

46 Climate Medium
36 Nature +0.0 Low
63 Social High
78 Governance High
74 Adaptation +0.4 High

Which hazards threaten Mozambique most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

6.1FloodHigh
5.5DRR capacityMedium

Mozambique in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Eastern Africa

#16 of 18 · median 54

Africa

#45 of 54 · median 53

Low income

#26 of 37 · median 55

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Mozambique: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Mozambique is projected to warm +3.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -22 mm.

+3.2 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +2.1 °C → +3.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +1.6 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +4.0 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

-22 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: -14 mm → -22 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: -22 mm → -15 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

4.1%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 3.4% → 4.1%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 6.2% → 7.8%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4% today.

4.8%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 4% → 4.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 4.1% → 4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.8% today.

Sea level

Mozambique: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.25 m → +0.81 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.22 m → +0.59 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Access to Clean Fuels	6.00 % population	2022	94.0	+83.8	+5.2
Land Surface Temperature	31.6 deg C change	2021	73.7	+9.0	-1.1
Coastal Protection Needed	79.3 % coast	2020	73.1	-11.2	-10.5
Energy Intensity	11.9 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	61.6	+45.0	+38.7
Flood Risk	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+9.0	+13.5
Energy Imports	-106 % of energy use	2022	60.3	-10.8	-9.3
Cooling Degree Days	4050 degree days	2020	55.4	+3.6	-10.8
Drought Index (SPEI)	-1.39 index	2021	28.5	-17.9	-15.8
Fossil Fuel Consumption	24.6 % of total	2022	21.5	-51.2	-9.6
Renewable Energy Share	76.9 % of total energy	2021	20.1	-55.3	-10.5
PM2.5 Air Pollution	20.1 ug/m3	2020	18.9	-0.3	-15.3
Renewable Electricity Share	82.7 % of total	2021	17.3	-57.8	-58.0
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.31 kt CO2e per capita	2020	7.3	+0.3	+0.9
Heat Index	2.73 index	2020	2.0	+1.9	+0.2
Energy Use Per Capita	359 kg oil eq per capita	2022	1.7	-6.6	-0.4
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.23 metric tons	2020	0.6	-7.1	-0.5
Heating Degree Days	34.4 degree days	2020	0.2	-1.3	+0.1
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Dependency Ratio	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+93.2	+34.3
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.98 0-1	2023	98.3	+14.1	+2.1
Agricultural Capacity	0.97 0-1	2023	96.7	+4.9	-1.3
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.94 0-1	2023	94.0	+7.5	+1.1
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.86 0-1	2023	85.8	+9.5	+5.6
Age Dependency Ratio	0.83 0-1	2023	83.0	+30.3	+11.7
Protected Areas	18.0 % of land	2023	81.9	-7.0	-7.0
Paved Roads	0.80 0-1	2023	79.8	+24.8	-0.9
Protected Biome Areas	0.78 0-1	2023	78.3	+37.3	+13.7
Agriculture GDP Share	25.9 % of GDP	2023	72.1	+53.2	+20.8
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.71 0-1	2023	70.8	+8.6	+1.6
Projected Hydropower Change	0.69 0-1	2023	69.3	+25.6	+25.6
Rural Population	0.66 0-1	2023	66.0	+23.4	+8.2
Electricity Access	0.65 0-1	2023	64.7	+64.7	+23.5
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.63 0-1	2023	62.9	+23.3	+27.7
Projected Warm Period Change	0.63 0-1	2023	62.5	-5.3	-6.6
Agricultural Land	52.7 % of land	2022	62.1	+14.8	+6.6
Projected Population Change	0.58 0-1	2023	58.2	+35.9	+10.7
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.58 0-1	2023	57.6	0.0	+3.5
Slum Population	0.55 0-1	2023	55.5	+39.0	+6.8
Water Dependency Ratio	0.54 0-1	2023	53.8	+46.9	+34.0
Forest Area	46.1 % of land	2022	51.2	-15.1	-26.2
Ecological Footprint	0.43 0-1	2023	42.8	+20.2	-7.8
Dam Capacity	0.43 0-1	2023	42.7	-50.6	-52.1
Tsunami Risk	3.80 0-10	2026	38.0	+27.0	+38.0
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.36 0-1	2023	36.4	+6.1	+3.1
Earthquake Risk	3.40 0-10	2026	34.0	-1.0	+33.0
Urban Concentration	0.34 0-1	2023	34.0	-23.4	-8.2
Disaster Preparedness	0.33 0-1	2023	32.5	+2.5	-2.5
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.32 0-1	2023	32.3	-5.0	+2.6
Food Import Dependency	0.27 0-1	2023	27.5	+5.8	-2.1
Projected Groundwater Change	0.23 0-1	2023	22.5	-3.7	-5.7
Freshwater Withdrawal	1.47 % of internal resources	2021	20.3	-30.0	-21.2
Population Below 5m	0.17 0-1	2023	16.9	+2.1	+6.6
Child Malnutrition	0.16 0-1	2023	15.7	+1.9	-5.4
Food Production Index	162 index	2022	14.9	-52.2	-44.1
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.14 0-1	2023	14.4	-4.0	-7.4
Natural Capital Dependency	0.14 0-1	2023	14.2	-7.6	-5.3
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	0.10 0-1	2023	9.9	-3.6	+4.7
Threatened Mammal Species	17.0 count	2018	8.9	+3.7	+0.5
Tree Cover Loss	278039 hectares	2021	4.3	+4.2	+4.2
Natural Resource Depletion	0.71 % of GNI	2021	1.2	-0.9	-6.3
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	0.01 0-1	2023	1.2	-6.3	-3.7
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	-9.2
Water Stress	1.75 %	2021	0.0	-0.3	-0.2
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-65.8	-72.3
Energy Import Dependency	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-25.7	-13.7

		Year		vs world	vs region
Unmet Contraception Need	26.6 %	2023	100.0	+42.4	+36.6
Poverty Rate (National)	62.8 % population	2019	100.0	+71.5	+41.4
Hospital Beds	0.73 per 1,000	2021	97.0	+13.1	+9.5
Recent Shocks	9.70 0-10	2026	97.0	+96.0	+91.0
Shared Prosperity Growth	-5.56 % annual	2019	95.2	+48.3	+24.0
Internet Users	19.8 % population	2023	90.2	+69.3	+21.4
Gini Coefficient	50.3 0-100	2019	89.4	+55.9	+38.9
Development and Deprivation	8.80 0-10	2026	88.0	+58.0	+10.5
Communicable Disease Deaths	54.4 %	2019	83.2	+67.1	+7.5
School Gender Parity	0.94 ratio	2020	81.7	+24.9	+26.3
Health Conditions	7.90 0-10	2026	79.0	+71.0	+43.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	4.60 %	2019	78.6	+40.0	+34.3
Uprooted People	7.60 0-10	2026	76.0	+17.0	+18.0
Fertility Rate	4.76 births per woman	2023	74.7	+51.4	+15.0
Life Expectancy	63.6 years	2023	71.3	+31.8	+5.9
Access to Electricity	36.0 % population	2023	67.7	+67.7	+22.6
Food Security	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+43.0	+14.0
Adult Literacy Rate	60.0 %	2020	58.0	+49.3	+20.5
Net Migration	-36276 persons	2023	53.8	-1.2	-1.1
Under-5 Mortality Rate	61.7 per 1,000	2023	53.2	+41.0	+13.4
Education Expenditure	18.8 % of govt	2021	49.6	-20.4	-11.5
Undernourishment	24.8 % population	2022	45.7	+39.9	+16.2
GDP Growth	5.44 % annual	2023	44.9	-4.0	-1.9
ESG Performance Score	2.01 0-100	2018	44.8	+19.8	-5.9
Aid Dependency	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	+16.0	+0.5
Children Under 5	4.00 0-10	2026	40.0	+29.0	+3.5
Primary School Enrollment	120 % gross	2023	25.1	-16.9	-13.9
Overweight Adults	27.2 % adults	2022	20.5	-35.5	-8.2
Labor Participation	79.2 % (15+)	2023	14.7	-15.4	-22.2
Unemployment Rate	3.52 %	2023	9.7	-4.5	-5.9
Gender Labor Ratio	98.0 ratio F/M	2023	6.8	-20.2	-17.1
Aging Population	2.77 % population	2023	3.4	-13.0	-1.3
Population Density	41.5 people/km2	2022	0.2	-0.3	-0.2

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	30.0 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	194 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Legal Rights Strength	1.00 0-12	2019	91.7	+41.7	+41.7
Physical Infrastructure	7.70 0-10	2026	77.0	+47.0	+10.0
Political Stability	-1.27 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	75.4	+25.6	+15.1
Communication Infrastructure	7.20 0-10	2026	72.0	+52.0	+22.0
Rule of Law	-1.03 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	70.5	+17.5	+6.3
INFORM Governance Index	7.00 0-10	2026	70.0	+14.0	+3.5
Healthcare Access	6.90 0-10	2026	69.0	+32.0	+4.0
Control of Corruption	-0.83 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	66.6	+11.0	+1.6
Government Effectiveness	-0.72 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	64.3	+12.6	-2.2
Regulatory Quality	-0.71 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	64.2	+11.5	-1.2
Voice and Accountability	-0.59 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	61.9	+13.0	-2.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	5.50 0-10	2026	55.0	+13.5	0.0
Women in Parliament	43.2 % seats	2023	29.5	-28.7	-32.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.00 0-1	2023	99.6	+4.9	+0.1
Education (Readiness)	0.04 0-1	2023	95.7	+22.7	+1.5
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.23 0-1	2023	76.5	+12.2	+3.5
ICT Infrastructure	0.29 0-1	2023	71.1	+23.4	+6.8
Doing Business Score	0.29 0-1	2023	70.5	+12.1	+1.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.31 0-1	2023	69.3	+17.3	+6.7
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.35 0-1	2023	64.8	+21.7	+13.0
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.36 0-1	2023	63.6	+11.0	-0.6
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.39 0-1	2023	61.2	+9.7	+4.9

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Mozambique?
Mozambique: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 59 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Mozambique's risk?
Mozambique's highest pressures are governance (78, high) and adaptation (74). Its strongest area is nature (36).
How might Mozambique's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Mozambique's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 73 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Mozambique warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mozambique is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -22 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Mozambique's coast?
Coastal sea level along Mozambique is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Mozambique?
The share of Mozambique under high water stress is projected to move from 4% today to 4.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Mozambique?
The share of Mozambique exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.8% today to 4.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Mozambique's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.