Criora

Mozambique

Region Africa Subregion Eastern Africa Income Low income ISO MOZ

Mozambique sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Mozambique, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
59 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    46 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    36 / 100
    ▲ + 0.0 5y
  3. Social
    High
    63 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    78 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    74 / 100
    ▲ + 0.4 5y
Climate futures

Mozambique: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Mozambique is projected to warm +3.2 °C, with annual rainfall changing -22 mm.

Temperature

+3.2 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.1 °C → +3.2 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.6 °C → +2.1 °C

Hottest month +4.0 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

-22 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
-14 mm → -22 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
-22 mm → -15 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Mozambique: under high emissions, severe coastal flooding could reach 8 of its largest cities.

Most exposed cities

PopulationFlood depth

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+0.25 m → +0.81 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+0.22 m → +0.59 m

Water stress

4.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
3.4% → 4.1%
Current path SSP3-7.0
6.2% → 7.8%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4% today.

River flooding

4.8%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
4% → 4.8%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
4.1% → 4%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 3.8% today.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Mozambique.

Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Mozambique most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.1 / 10
DRR capacity
Medium
5.1 / 10
Peers

Mozambique in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Eastern Africa
#16 of 18median 54
  1. 9ZambiaMedium 54
  2. 10EritreaMedium 54
  3. 11MalawiMedium 54
  4. 12BurundiMedium 55
  5. 13UgandaMedium 55
  6. 14EthiopiaMedium 56
  7. 15MadagascarMedium 57
  8. 16MozambiqueMedium 59
  9. 17S. SudanHigh 63
  10. 18SomaliaHigh 69
region
Africa
#45 of 54median 53
  1. 41CongoMedium 56
  2. 42MauritaniaMedium 57
  3. 43MadagascarMedium 57
  4. 44LiberiaMedium 59
  5. 45MozambiqueMedium 59
  6. 46MaliMedium 60
  7. 47NigeriaHigh 60
  8. 48NigerHigh 61
  9. 49Dem. Rep. CongoHigh 61
  10. 50S. SudanHigh 63
income group
Low income
#26 of 37median 55
  1. 22EthiopiaMedium 56
  2. 23MauritaniaMedium 57
  3. 24MadagascarMedium 57
  4. 25LiberiaMedium 59
  5. 26MozambiqueMedium 59
  6. 27MaliMedium 60
  7. 28NigerHigh 61
  8. 29Dem. Rep. CongoHigh 61
  9. 30HaitiHigh 62
  10. 31S. SudanHigh 63

Put two countries head to head

Compare Mozambique against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Mozambique?
Mozambique sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 59 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Mozambique's risk?
Mozambique's highest pressures are governance (78, high) and adaptation (74). Its strongest area is nature (36).
How might Mozambique's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 21% of Mozambique's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 74 to 73 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Mozambique warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Mozambique is on track to warm by +3.2 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by -22 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.1 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along Mozambique's coast?
Coastal sea level along Mozambique is projected to rise by +0.81 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in Mozambique?
The share of Mozambique under high water stress is projected to move from 4% today to 4.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Mozambique?
The share of Mozambique exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 3.8% today to 4.8% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Mozambique's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.