+2.9 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.9 °C → +2.9 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.5 °C → +2.0 °C
Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
Ethiopia Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Eastern Africa
- Income
- Low income
- ISO
- ETH
Ethiopia: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is Ethiopia, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 56 / 100
5y
- 40 Climate Medium
- 37 Nature -1.8 Low
- 57 Social Medium
- 77 Governance High
- 71 Adaptation +1.8 High
Which hazards threaten Ethiopia most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 5.2FloodMedium
- 4.4DRR capacityMedium
Ethiopia in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
14
Eastern Africa
#14 of 18 · median 5440
Africa
#40 of 54 · median 5322
Low income
#22 of 37 · median 55Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
Ethiopia: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Ethiopia is projected to warm +2.9 °C, with annual rainfall changing +154 mm.
+154 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +116 mm → +154 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +72 mm → +81 mm
Driest month +2 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
6.1%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 7.2% → 6.1%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 6.2% → 8.3%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 4.6% today.
2.1%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 2% → 2.1%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 2% → 2.1%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 1.2% today.
Sea level
Landlocked, not applicable.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 8.80 % population | 91.2 |
Land Surface Temperature | 34.4 deg C change | 79.5 |
Drought Index (SPEI) | 0.99 index | 75.5 |
Energy Imports | 10.8 % of energy use | 69.7 |
Flood Risk | 5.20 0-10 | 52.0 |
Cooling Degree Days | 3781 degree days | 51.8 |
Energy Intensity | 6.79 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 32.3 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 27.3 ug/m3 | 27.9 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.45 kt CO2e per capita | 10.6 |
Fossil Fuel Consumption | 9.69 % of total | 6.0 |
Renewable Energy Share | 90.6 % of total energy | 5.9 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 95.4 % of total | 4.6 |
Heat Index | 3.36 index | 2.5 |
Energy Use Per Capita | 378 kg oil eq per capita | 1.9 |
Heating Degree Days | 209 degree days | 1.4 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.15 metric tons | 0.4 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 35.8 % of GDP | 99.6 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.97 0-1 | 97.5 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.95 0-1 | 95.1 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.94 0-1 | 93.8 |
Dam Capacity | 0.94 0-1 | 93.7 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.88 0-1 | 88.0 |
Paved Roads | 0.87 0-1 | 87.0 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.87 0-1 | 86.9 |
Forest Area | 15.0 % of land | 84.1 |
Dependency Ratio | 0.84 0-1 | 83.7 |
Protected Areas | 17.0 % of land | 82.9 |
Rural Population | 0.83 0-1 | 82.8 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.80 0-1 | 80.2 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.75 0-1 | 75.1 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.74 0-1 | 73.9 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.73 0-1 | 72.9 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.72 0-1 | 71.6 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.70 0-1 | 70.4 |
Ecological Footprint | 0.68 0-1 | 67.6 |
Slum Population | 0.65 0-1 | 64.9 |
Food Production Index | 116 index | 57.5 |
Projected Biome Distribution Change | 0.51 0-1 | 50.6 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 8.65 % of internal resources | 50.6 |
Projected Population Change | 0.46 0-1 | 46.3 |
Earthquake Risk | 4.60 0-10 | 46.0 |
Electricity Access | 0.45 0-1 | 45.1 |
Agricultural Land | 34.1 % of land | 40.0 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.38 0-1 | 38.2 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.36 0-1 | 36.4 |
Forest Depletion | 5.63 % of GNI | 32.1 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.31 0-1 | 31.3 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.28 0-1 | 28.1 |
Projected Hydropower Change | 0.26 0-1 | 25.6 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.22 0-1 | 21.6 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.21 0-1 | 20.8 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 34.0 count | 17.8 |
Urban Concentration | 0.17 0-1 | 17.2 |
Energy Import Dependency | 0.11 0-1 | 10.8 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 5.84 % of GNI | 10.2 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.07 0-1 | 7.4 |
Water Bodies Extent | 96.8 % of land | 3.2 |
Water Stress | 32.3 % | 0.8 |
Tree Cover Loss | 19751 hectares | 0.3 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Population Below 5m | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Disaster Preparedness | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Sanitation Access | 7.22 % population | 95.4 |
Internet Users | 16.7 % population | 92.6 |
Safe Drinking Water | 13.2 % population | 92.4 |
Development and Deprivation | 8.90 0-10 | 89.0 |
Uprooted People | 8.60 0-10 | 86.0 |
Shared Prosperity Growth | -2.40 % annual | 82.7 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 44.7 % | 67.8 |
Fertility Rate | 3.99 births per woman | 60.4 |
Life Expectancy | 67.3 years | 59.7 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 21.2 % | 56.4 |
Net Migration | -11996 persons | 54.6 |
Aid Dependency | 5.30 0-10 | 53.0 |
Primary School Enrollment | 84.5 % gross | 52.0 |
Food Security | 5.00 0-10 | 50.0 |
ESG Performance Score | 1.95 0-100 | 48.9 |
Access to Electricity | 55.4 % population | 47.1 |
GDP Growth | 6.59 % annual | 43.0 |
Children Under 5 | 4.10 0-10 | 41.0 |
Undernourishment | 22.2 % population | 40.4 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 46.5 per 1,000 | 39.8 |
Health Conditions | 3.30 0-10 | 33.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 73.2 ratio F/M | 32.2 |
Labor Participation | 69.2 % (15+) | 30.1 |
Income Share Bottom 20% | 8.30 % | 26.8 |
Education Expenditure | 23.0 % of govt | 25.4 |
Gini Coefficient | 31.1 0-100 | 22.6 |
Unemployment Rate | 3.40 % | 9.4 |
Recent Shocks | 0.50 0-10 | 5.0 |
Aging Population | 3.17 % population | 4.6 |
Population Density | 111 people/km2 | 0.6 |
Overweight Adults | 10.9 % adults | 0.0 |
Patent Applications | 6.00 count | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 7156 count | 99.2 |
Physical Infrastructure | 9.40 0-10 | 94.0 |
Political Stability | -1.97 -2.5 to +2.5 | 89.4 |
Legal Rights Strength | 3.00 0-12 | 75.0 |
Voice and Accountability | -1.06 -2.5 to +2.5 | 71.2 |
Regulatory Quality | -1.02 -2.5 to +2.5 | 70.4 |
Healthcare Access | 6.70 0-10 | 67.0 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.77 -2.5 to +2.5 | 65.4 |
Communication Infrastructure | 6.50 0-10 | 65.0 |
Rule of Law | -0.67 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.4 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.30 0-10 | 63.0 |
Control of Corruption | -0.47 -2.5 to +2.5 | 59.3 |
Disaster Risk Reduction | 4.40 0-10 | 44.0 |
Women in Parliament | 41.3 % seats | 32.5 |
Innovation (Readiness) | 0.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.05 0-1 | 95.5 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.23 0-1 | 76.9 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.30 0-1 | 70.1 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.30 0-1 | 69.8 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 68.2 |
Doing Business Score | 0.34 0-1 | 66.4 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.38 0-1 | 62.3 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.60 0-1 | 40.3 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in Ethiopia →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside Ethiopia.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is Ethiopia?
Ethiopia: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 56 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Ethiopia's risk?
Ethiopia's highest pressures are governance (77, high) and adaptation (71). Its strongest area is nature (37).
How might Ethiopia's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 16% of Ethiopia's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 72 to 72 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Ethiopia warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Ethiopia is on track to warm by +2.9 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +154 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Ethiopia?
The share of Ethiopia under high water stress is projected to move from 4.6% today to 6.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Ethiopia?
The share of Ethiopia exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 1.2% today to 2.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Ethiopia's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.