Criora

Nepal

Region Asia Subregion Southern Asia Income Low income ISO NPL

Nepal sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.

Live events

In real time

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map →
Standing risk

How risky is Nepal, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
53 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    Medium
    48 / 100
  2. Nature
    Medium
    41 / 100
    ▼ -0.2 5y
  3. Social
    Medium
    44 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    70 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    High
    64 / 100
    ▼ -2.1 5y
Climate futures

Nepal: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Nepal is projected to warm +3.6 °C, with annual rainfall changing +229 mm.

Temperature

+3.6 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+2.2 °C → +3.6 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+1.8 °C → +2.4 °C

Hottest month +2.9 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+229 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+119 mm → +229 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+94 mm → +118 mm

Driest month -1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

37%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
37% → 37%
Current path SSP3-7.0
37% → 37%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 37% today.

River flooding

3%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
2.7% → 3%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
2.4% → 2.8%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 2% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Score a site

But what about your location?

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Where exactly?

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Nepal most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
High
6.9 / 10
DRR capacity
High
7.3 / 10
Peers

Nepal in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Southern Asia
#4 of 9median 56
  1. 1MaldivesMedium 41
  2. 2BhutanMedium 41
  3. 3Sri LankaMedium 46
  4. 4NepalMedium 53
  5. 5IranMedium 56
  6. 6IndiaMedium 57
  7. 7BangladeshHigh 64
  8. 8PakistanHigh 64
  9. 9AfghanistanHigh 64
region
Asia
#34 of 48median 47
  1. 30VietnamMedium 51
  2. 31TajikistanMedium 52
  3. 32LaosMedium 52
  4. 33LebanonMedium 53
  5. 34NepalMedium 53
  6. 35TurkmenistanMedium 53
  7. 36North KoreaMedium 54
  8. 37IndonesiaMedium 54
  9. 38CambodiaMedium 55
  10. 39PhilippinesMedium 56
income group
Low income
#11 of 37median 55
  1. 7TanzaniaMedium 53
  2. 8GuineaMedium 53
  3. 9Guinea-BissauMedium 53
  4. 10KenyaMedium 53
  5. 11NepalMedium 53
  6. 12North KoreaMedium 54
  7. 13Burkina FasoMedium 54
  8. 14GambiaMedium 54
  9. 15EritreaMedium 54
  10. 16BeninMedium 54

Put two countries head to head

Compare Nepal against any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Nepal?
Nepal sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 53 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Nepal's risk?
Nepal's highest pressures are governance (70, high) and adaptation (64). Its strongest area is nature (41).
How might Nepal's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 37% of Nepal's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 69 to 72 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Nepal warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Nepal is on track to warm by +3.6 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +229 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +2.4 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Nepal?
The share of Nepal under high water stress is projected to move from 37% today to 37% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Nepal?
The share of Nepal exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 2% today to 3% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Nepal's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.