What drives Uzbekistan's risk?

Uzbekistan's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and climate (62). Its strongest area is social (28).

How might Uzbekistan's climate change by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 8% of Uzbekistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will Uzbekistan warm by 2080?

Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Uzbekistan is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +13 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.

How will water stress change in Uzbekistan?

The share of Uzbekistan under high water stress is projected to move from 30% today to 57% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Uzbekistan?

The share of Uzbekistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 1.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Uzbekistan's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Uzbekistan Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Asia
Subregion: Central Asia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: UZB

Uzbekistan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Uzbekistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 50 / 100

62 Climate High
39 Nature +0.4 Low
28 Social Low
65 Governance High
57 Adaptation -7.0 Medium

Which hazards threaten Uzbekistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

8.3FloodCritical
2.3DRR capacityLow

Uzbekistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Central Asia

#3 of 5 · median 50

Asia

#28 of 48 · median 47

Lower middle income

#29 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

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Uzbekistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Uzbekistan is projected to warm +4.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +13 mm.

+4.3 °C

Temperature

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +3.2 °C → +4.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +2.6 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +5.0 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

+13 mm

Precipitation

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +13 mm → +13 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +6 mm → +10 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

57%

Water stress

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 57% → 57%
Current path SSP3-7.0: 38% → 63%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 30% today.

1.1%

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0.9% → 1.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0.9% → 1.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Renewable Energy Share	1.00 % of total energy	2021	99.0	+23.6	+8.4
Fossil Fuel Consumption	98.4 % of total	2022	98.3	+25.6	+11.5
Renewable Electricity Share	7.08 % of total	2021	92.9	+17.8	+9.9
Flood Risk	8.30 0-10	2026	83.0	+31.0	+17.5
Energy Imports	1.55 % of energy use	2022	68.9	-2.2	-1.8
Land Surface Temperature	29.1 deg C change	2021	68.7	+4.0	+1.2
Energy Intensity	7.55 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2021	36.6	+20.0	+18.2
Heating Degree Days	5270 degree days	2020	36.2	+34.8	+28.6
PM2.5 Air Pollution	32.0 ug/m3	2020	33.7	+14.5	+7.5
Cooling Degree Days	2036 degree days	2020	27.9	-23.9	-23.1
Access to Clean Fuels	77.8 % population	2022	22.2	+11.9	+13.5
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.51 kt CO2e per capita	2020	11.8	+4.8	+5.7
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	3.44 metric tons	2020	10.9	+3.2	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	7.59 % of total	2022	7.9	-8.8	-24.0
Energy Use Per Capita	1382 kg oil eq per capita	2022	7.9	-0.4	-1.0
Heat Index	0.22 index	2020	0.2	+0.2	-1.9

		Year		vs world	vs region
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+92.5	+72.5
Freshwater Withdrawal	260 % of internal resources	2021	94.2	+43.9	+18.6
Forest Area	8.49 % of land	2022	91.0	+24.7	+6.1
Protected Areas	9.50 % of land	2023	90.5	+1.6	-2.7
Ecological Footprint	0.89 0-1	2023	89.3	+66.7	+64.4
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.87 0-1	2023	87.4	+11.1	+7.2
Dam Capacity	0.84 0-1	2023	84.1	-9.2	-9.5
Water Dependency Ratio	0.80 0-1	2023	80.1	+73.2	+73.1
Projected Warm Period Change	0.77 0-1	2023	76.9	+9.2	+11.6
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.73 0-1	2023	72.6	-11.6	-9.2
Earthquake Risk	7.00 0-10	2026	70.0	+35.0	+2.5
Agricultural Land	58.5 % of land	2022	69.0	+21.7	+28.7
Quality of Trade Infrastructure	0.67 0-1	2023	66.7	+4.6	+5.7
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.61 0-1	2023	60.6	-25.9	-17.2
Food Production Index	114 index	2022	59.3	-7.8	-0.7
Agriculture GDP Share	20.2 % of GDP	2023	56.1	+37.2	+34.0
Age Dependency Ratio	0.55 0-1	2023	55.3	+2.5	+9.7
Projected Biome Distribution Change	0.54 0-1	2023	54.1	-3.5	-1.2
Rural Population	0.53 0-1	2023	53.3	+10.7	+8.7
Protected Biome Areas	0.49 0-1	2023	48.9	+7.9	+4.0
Urban Concentration	0.47 0-1	2023	46.7	-10.7	-8.7
Projected Groundwater Change	0.31 0-1	2023	30.7	+4.5	+2.1
Projected Hydropower Change	0.28 0-1	2023	28.1	-15.6	-15.6
Natural Capital Dependency	0.26 0-1	2023	26.0	+4.2	+0.3
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.26 0-1	2023	25.7	-13.6	-7.5
Natural Resource Depletion	14.0 % of GNI	2021	24.4	+22.3	+21.8
Projected Population Change	0.24 0-1	2023	23.9	+1.6	+0.3
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.20 0-1	2023	20.4	0.0	-7.5
Food Import Dependency	0.18 0-1	2023	17.7	-4.0	-1.8
Paved Roads	0.13 0-1	2023	13.1	-41.9	-13.7
Child Malnutrition	0.10 0-1	2023	9.9	-3.9	-7.9
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.06 0-1	2023	6.1	-24.2	-15.1
Threatened Mammal Species	10.0 count	2018	5.2	0.0	-1.6
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.04 0-1	2023	4.2	-14.2	-7.9
Water Stress	122 %	2021	3.2	+2.9	+1.8
Agricultural Capacity	0.02 0-1	2023	2.0	-89.8	-86.5
Energy Import Dependency	0.02 0-1	2023	1.5	-24.2	-19.2
Dependency Ratio	0.01 0-1	2023	0.7	-6.1	-3.2
Tsunami Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-11.0	-25.0
Tree Cover Loss	4.00 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Forest Depletion	0.00 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Projected Annual Runoff Change	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-39.6	-27.6
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-37.3	-36.7
Population Below 5m	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-14.8	-17.8
Electricity Access	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-30.0	-25.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Overweight Adults	62.5 % adults	2022	64.9	+8.9	+10.2
Hospital Beds	4.86 per 1,000	2021	63.7	-20.2	-21.6
Net Migration	-6004 persons	2023	54.8	-0.2	-0.1
Gender Labor Ratio	54.6 ratio F/M	2023	51.4	+24.4	+11.6
Fertility Rate	3.50 births per woman	2023	51.4	+28.1	+28.2
Income Share Bottom 20%	6.40 %	2023	50.8	-14.8	+17.2
Primary School Enrollment	93.5 % gross	2023	45.2	+3.2	+4.3
Life Expectancy	72.4 years	2023	43.8	+4.3	+10.6
GDP Growth	6.29 % annual	2023	43.5	-5.4	-4.3
School Gender Parity	0.99 ratio	2021	42.9	+1.9	+1.6
Labor Participation	60.9 % (15+)	2023	42.8	+12.7	+11.6
Education Expenditure	21.4 % of govt	2021	40.6	-29.4	-29.4
Uprooted People	3.90 0-10	2026	39.0	-20.0	-14.5
Aid Dependency	3.60 0-10	2026	36.0	+11.0	+15.0
Development and Deprivation	3.10 0-10	2026	31.0	+1.0	+5.5
Gini Coefficient	34.5 0-100	2023	27.3	-24.0	-0.6
Sanitation Access	74.5 % population	2022	26.2	-13.8	-8.2
Safe Drinking Water	79.8 % population	2022	21.5	0.0	-8.7
ESG Performance Score	2.39 0-100	2018	16.4	-8.6	-10.0
Unmet Contraception Need	11.0 %	2022	16.2	-31.2	-1.8
Unemployment Rate	4.46 %	2023	12.4	-1.8	+0.8
Internet Users	89.0 % population	2023	12.4	-8.5	-4.0
Aging Population	5.70 % population	2023	11.9	-4.5	-1.9
Communicable Disease Deaths	8.21 %	2019	10.8	-5.3	-3.4
Under-5 Mortality Rate	13.3 per 1,000	2023	10.5	-1.7	0.0
Poverty Rate (National)	11.0 % population	2023	9.8	-16.0	-0.7
Children Under 5	0.70 0-10	2026	7.0	-4.0	-6.0
Food Security	0.60 0-10	2026	6.0	-12.0	-12.0
Health Conditions	0.30 0-10	2026	3.0	-5.0	-1.0
Population Density	79.3 people/km2	2022	0.4	-0.1	-0.2
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-3.0
Access to Electricity	100 % population	2023	0.0	0.0	0.0
Undernourishment	2.50 % population	2022	0.0	-5.8	-5.6
Adult Literacy Rate	100 %	2022	0.0	-21.3	-8.3

		Year		vs world	vs region
Patent Applications	413 count	2021	100.0	0.0	0.0
Scientific Articles	2187 count	2022	99.8	-0.1	0.0
R&D Expenditure	0.13 % of GDP	2023	93.9	+7.6	+2.2
Voice and Accountability	-1.31 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	76.2	+27.4	+10.7
Rule of Law	-0.83 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	66.7	+13.8	+13.6
Control of Corruption	-0.81 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	66.2	+10.6	+7.9
Regulatory Quality	-0.58 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	61.5	+8.8	+6.9
INFORM Governance Index	6.10 0-10	2026	61.0	+5.0	+3.5
Government Effectiveness	-0.28 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	55.7	+4.0	+5.0
Political Stability	-0.15 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	53.1	+3.3	-2.5
Legal Rights Strength	6.00 0-12	2019	50.0	0.0	0.0
Women in Parliament	33.6 % seats	2023	45.2	-13.0	-24.0
Physical Infrastructure	3.00 0-10	2026	30.0	0.0	+0.5
Healthcare Access	2.90 0-10	2026	29.0	-8.0	-4.0
Disaster Risk Reduction	2.30 0-10	2026	23.0	-18.5	-13.0
Communication Infrastructure	1.40 0-10	2026	14.0	-6.0	-0.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Innovation (Readiness)	0.06 0-1	2023	94.2	-0.5	-0.1
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.24 0-1	2023	76.1	+11.8	+8.3
Education (Readiness)	0.27 0-1	2023	72.6	-0.5	-0.3
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.35 0-1	2023	65.5	+13.5	+13.7
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.39 0-1	2023	61.0	+8.4	+7.5
Doing Business Score	0.53 0-1	2023	47.3	-11.1	-3.8
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.54 0-1	2023	45.7	+2.6	-2.6
Social Inequality (Readiness)	0.55 0-1	2023	44.8	-6.7	+1.9
ICT Infrastructure	0.63 0-1	2023	37.4	-10.3	-8.1

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Uzbekistan?
Uzbekistan: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 50 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Uzbekistan's risk?
Uzbekistan's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and climate (62). Its strongest area is social (28).
How might Uzbekistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 8% of Uzbekistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Uzbekistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Uzbekistan is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +13 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Uzbekistan?
The share of Uzbekistan under high water stress is projected to move from 30% today to 57% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Uzbekistan?
The share of Uzbekistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 1.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Uzbekistan's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.