Criora

Uzbekistan

Region Asia Subregion Central Asia Income Lower middle income ISO UZB

Uzbekistan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

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In real time

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Standing risk

How risky is Uzbekistan, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Composite risk
Medium
50 / 100
Very lowLowMediumHighCritical
  1. Climate
    High
    62 / 100
  2. Nature
    Low
    39 / 100
    ▲ + 0.4 5y
  3. Social
    Low
    26 / 100
  4. Governance
    High
    65 / 100
  5. Adaptation
    Medium
    57 / 100
    ▼ -7.0 5y
Climate futures

Uzbekistan: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, Uzbekistan is projected to warm +4.3 °C, with annual rainfall changing +13 mm.

Temperature

+4.3 °C

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+3.2 °C → +4.3 °C
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+2.6 °C → +3.0 °C

Hottest month +5.0 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Precipitation

+13 mm

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
+13 mm → +13 mm
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
+6 mm → +10 mm

Driest month 0 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).

Sea level

Landlocked, not applicable.

Water stress

57%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
57% → 57%
Current path SSP3-7.0
38% → 63%

Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 30% today.

River flooding

1.1%

20502080
Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
0.9% → 1.1%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
0.9% → 1.1%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0.9% today.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

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Hazard exposure

Which hazards threaten Uzbekistan most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

Flood
Critical
8.3 / 10
DRR capacity
Low
2.3 / 10
Peers

Uzbekistan in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

subregion
Central Asia
#3 of 5median 50
  1. 1KazakhstanMedium 45
  2. 2KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  3. 3UzbekistanMedium 50
  4. 4TajikistanMedium 52
  5. 5TurkmenistanMedium 53
region
Asia
#28 of 48median 47
  1. 24KyrgyzstanMedium 47
  2. 25Timor-LesteMedium 47
  3. 26AzerbaijanMedium 49
  4. 27TurkeyMedium 49
  5. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
  6. 29ThailandMedium 50
  7. 30VietnamMedium 51
  8. 31TajikistanMedium 52
  9. 32LaosMedium 52
  10. 33LebanonMedium 53
income group
Lower middle income
#28 of 53median 49
  1. 24UkraineMedium 48
  2. 25Solomon Is.Medium 48
  3. 26VanuatuMedium 48
  4. 27GhanaMedium 49
  5. 28UzbekistanMedium 50
  6. 29GuyanaMedium 50
  7. 30El SalvadorMedium 51
  8. 31VietnamMedium 51
  9. 32BoliviaMedium 51
  10. 33DjiboutiMedium 52

Put two countries head to head

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Indicators

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

FAQ

Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Uzbekistan?
Uzbekistan sits mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 50 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Uzbekistan's risk?
Uzbekistan's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and climate (62). Its strongest area is social (26).
How might Uzbekistan's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 8% of Uzbekistan's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 67 to 66 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will Uzbekistan warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), Uzbekistan is on track to warm by +4.3 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +13 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +3.0 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How will water stress change in Uzbekistan?
The share of Uzbekistan under high water stress is projected to move from 30% today to 57% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Uzbekistan?
The share of Uzbekistan exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0.9% today to 1.1% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Uzbekistan's risk data last updated?
Updated August 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.