Climate risk in Tarsus
Mersin, Turkey · 894.3K people in the urban area
What threatens Tarsus most
- Water stress
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- River flood
- 0.13 m in a 100-year flood
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Turkey
Tarsus's hottest day of 2025 reached 44.6°C.
Istanbul: 34.4°C.
Tarsus's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Tarsus's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Tunis (Tunisia).
+1.7°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+0.9°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-10%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Tarsus would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 4.6 σ away. How close the match is: 7.1 σ to the climate of Tunis today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Tarsus stands out
0.13 m
River flood depth, 100-year event
Istanbul: Dry at the city centre point.
Higher than in 87% of the world's 630 large cities
1%
Land burned in an average year
Istanbul: 0%.
Higher than in 83% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Tarsus
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Tarsus | Among large cities | In Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 27 days | Among large cities: above 70% | In Turkey: 13 of 32 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 108 days | Among large cities: above 51% | In Turkey: 6 of 32 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 44.6°C | Among large cities: above 94% | In Turkey: 5 of 32 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.4°C | Among large cities: above 80% | In Turkey: 21 of 32 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 2 days | Among large cities: above 16% | In Turkey: 14 of 32 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | 0.13 m | Among large cities: above 87% | In Turkey: 4 of 32 |
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 218 mm | Among large cities: above 61% | In Turkey: 2 of 8 |
| Water stress | High (40-80%) | Among large cities: above 56% | In Turkey: 11 of 29 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Turkey: 19 of 29 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.57 m/s² | Among large cities: above 73% | In Turkey: 31 of 32 |
| Land burned in an average year | 1% | Among large cities: above 83% | In Turkey: 5 of 32 |
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Tarsus on the live map
See how deep a river flood reaches around Tarsus on the live map
0.13 m © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Tarsus
- Mersin · Turkey
- Adana · Turkey
- İskenderun · Turkey
- Kahramanmaraş · Turkey
Large cities in Turkey
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Tarsus, Turkey: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/TUR/tarsus BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_TUR_tarsus_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Tarsus, Turkey: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/TUR/tarsus},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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