Climate risk in Ankara
Ankara, Turkey · 3.7M people in the urban area
What threatens Ankara most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Moderate GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Turkey
Ankara is projected to be +2.5°C warmer by 2050 under moderate emissions.
Istanbul: +2.3°C.
Ankara's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Ankara is projected to have the climate that Kirikkale (Turkey) has today.
+1.7°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.6°C
Highest in the warmest month
+0.9°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-4%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Ankara would have the climate that Mashhad (Iran) has today.
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How close the match is: 0.7 σ to the climate of Kirikkale today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 2 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Ankara stands out
1.94 m/s²
Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years
Istanbul: 2.15 m/s².
Higher than in 79% of the world's 627 large cities
39.9°C
Hottest day of 2025
Istanbul: 34.4°C.
Higher than in 77% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Ankara
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Ankara | Among large cities | In Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 16 days | Among large cities: above 63% | In Turkey: 17 of 32 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 12 days | Among large cities: above 23% | In Turkey: 25 of 32 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 39.9°C | Among large cities: above 77% | In Turkey: 17 of 32 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.5°C | Among large cities: above 85% | In Turkey: 15 of 32 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In Turkey: 1 of 29 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Turkey: 1 of 29 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 1.94 m/s² | Among large cities: above 79% | In Turkey: 27 of 32 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Ankara on the live map
See the earthquake hazard around Ankara on the live map
1.94 m/s² © OpenStreetMap Large cities in Turkey
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Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Ankara, Turkey: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/TUR/ankara BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_TUR_ankara_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Ankara, Turkey: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/TUR/ankara},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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