Climate risk in Tehran
Tehran, Iran · 7.9M people in the urban area
What threatens Tehran most
- Water stress
- Extremely High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Very high GSHAP
- Drought
- High WRI Aqueduct
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Iran
An earthquake's shaking at Tehran can reach 4.06 m/s², as strong as a once-in-475-years event.
Mashhad: 3.57 m/s².
The highest of the 6 large cities in Iran.
Tehran's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Tehran's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Ashgabat (Turkmenistan).
+1.9°C
Mean temperature over the year
+2.6°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.2°C
Lowest in the coldest month
+6%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Tehran would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 3.2 σ away. How close the match is: 6.1 σ to the climate of Ashgabat today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Where else Tehran stands out
+2.5°C
Warming by 2050, moderate emissions
Mashhad: +2.4°C.
Higher than in 84% of the world's 630 large cities
1%
Land burned in an average year
Mashhad: 0%.
Higher than in 83% of the world's 630 large cities
Hazards at Tehran
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Tehran | Among large cities | In Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 3 days | Among large cities: above 46% | In Iran: 6 of 6 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 72 days | Among large cities: above 40% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 35.7°C | Among large cities: above 44% | In Iran: 6 of 6 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +2.5°C | Among large cities: above 84% | In Iran: 2 of 6 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 0 days | ||
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Extremely High (>80%) | Among large cities: above 70% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Drought risk | High | Among large cities: above 50% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 4.06 m/s² | Among large cities: above 96% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Land burned in an average year | 1% | Among large cities: above 83% | In Iran: 1 of 6 |
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Tehran on the live map
See the warming around Tehran on the live map
+2.5°C © OpenStreetMap Cite or embed
Cite this page
In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Tehran, Iran: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/IRN/tehran BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_IRN_tehran_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Tehran, Iran: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/IRN/tehran},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
Embed on your site
<iframe src="https://criora.com/embed/atlas/IRN/tehran" title="Tehran, Iran: climate risk, by Criora" width="100%" height="140" loading="lazy" style="max-width:420px;border:0"></iframe> <p><a href="https://criora.com/atlas/IRN/tehran?ref=embed" rel="nofollow">Source: Criora</a></p>
Free, no account needed. The widget has no script and shows the figures of this page. Keep its link to the source.