+2.5 °C
Temperature
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +1.6 °C → +2.5 °C
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +1.4 °C → +1.9 °C
Hottest month +2.8 °C by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
São Tomé and Principe Climate risk profile and hazard map
- Region
- Africa
- Subregion
- Middle Africa
- Income
- Lower middle income
- ISO
- STP
São Tomé and Principe: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure.
Live events
Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live mapHow risky is São Tomé and Principe, overall?
The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.
Medium 44 / 100
5y
- 19 Climate Very low
- 26 Nature -0.7 Low
- 37 Social Low
- 73 Governance High
- 63 Adaptation -1.6 High
Which hazards threaten São Tomé and Principe most?
Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.
- 0.0FloodVery low
São Tomé and Principe in global context
Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.
1
Middle Africa
#1 of 9 · median 555
Africa
#5 of 54 · median 538
Lower middle income
#8 of 53 · median 49Put two countries head to head
Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.
São Tomé and Principe: outlook from 2050 to 2100
Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.
By 2080 under a high-emissions pathway, São Tomé and Principe is projected to warm +2.5 °C, with annual rainfall changing +602 mm.
+602 mm
Precipitation
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +393 mm → +602 mm
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +378 mm → +381 mm
Driest month +1 mm by 2080 (SSP5-8.5).
0%
Water stress
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Current path SSP3-7.0
- 0% → 0%
Share of land under high or extreme water stress; 0% today.
0%
River flooding
20502080
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- 0% → 0%
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- 0% → 0%
Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.
Sea level
Coastal sea-level rise
20502100
- Higher emissions SSP5-8.5
- +0.29 m → +0.89 m
- Lower emissions SSP2-4.5
- +0.25 m → +0.64 m
Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.
Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.
Indicator panel
Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.
Access to Clean Fuels | 4.10 % population | 95.9 |
Renewable Electricity Share | 6.06 % of total | 93.9 |
Cooling Degree Days | 5142 degree days | 70.4 |
Land Surface Temperature | 25.6 deg C change | 61.5 |
Renewable Energy Share | 42.5 % of total energy | 56.0 |
PM2.5 Air Pollution | 27.3 ug/m3 | 28.0 |
Energy Intensity | 3.64 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP | 20.8 |
CO2 Emissions Per Capita | 0.65 metric tons | 2.0 |
N2O Emissions Per Capita | 0.08 kt CO2e per capita | 1.9 |
Flood Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Heating Degree Days | 0.00 degree days | 0.0 |
Heat Index | 0.00 index | 0.0 |
Coal Electricity Share | 0.00 % of total | 0.0 |
Dependency Ratio | 1.00 0-1 | 100.0 |
Protected Areas | 0.20 % of land | 99.8 |
Agricultural Capacity | 0.96 0-1 | 96.3 |
Dam Capacity | 0.96 0-1 | 95.6 |
Health Expenditure Per Capita | 0.92 0-1 | 91.7 |
Projected Cereal Yield Change | 0.88 0-1 | 87.7 |
Environmental Treaties Engagement | 0.84 0-1 | 84.2 |
Projected Warm Period Change | 0.76 0-1 | 75.6 |
Urban Concentration | 0.75 0-1 | 74.6 |
Protected Biome Areas | 0.70 0-1 | 69.6 |
Age Dependency Ratio | 0.69 0-1 | 69.4 |
Quality of Trade Infrastructure | 0.68 0-1 | 68.5 |
Access to Improved Sanitation | 0.67 0-1 | 66.7 |
Food Production Index | 107 index | 66.0 |
Projected Vector Disease Change | 0.66 0-1 | 65.8 |
Access to Reliable Drinking Water | 0.65 0-1 | 64.6 |
Slum Population | 0.53 0-1 | 53.1 |
Agricultural Land | 43.8 % of land | 51.5 |
Food Import Dependency | 0.51 0-1 | 50.6 |
Projected Flood Hazard Change | 0.45 0-1 | 44.6 |
Forest Area | 52.8 % of land | 44.2 |
Projected Population Change | 0.42 0-1 | 42.2 |
Agriculture GDP Share | 13.7 % of GDP | 38.1 |
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss | 0.38 0-1 | 37.6 |
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact | 0.37 0-1 | 37.2 |
Projected Climate-Related Deaths | 0.33 0-1 | 33.3 |
Paved Roads | 0.32 0-1 | 32.3 |
Projected Groundwater Change | 0.30 0-1 | 30.4 |
Rural Population | 0.25 0-1 | 25.4 |
Freshwater Withdrawal | 1.88 % of internal resources | 25.0 |
Projected Annual Runoff Change | 0.22 0-1 | 22.2 |
Natural Capital Dependency | 0.19 0-1 | 19.4 |
Electricity Access | 0.19 0-1 | 18.9 |
Child Malnutrition | 0.17 0-1 | 16.9 |
Population Below 5m | 0.12 0-1 | 12.3 |
Forest Depletion | 1.86 % of GNI | 10.6 |
Natural Resource Depletion | 1.86 % of GNI | 3.3 |
Threatened Mammal Species | 4.00 count | 2.1 |
Freshwater Withdrawal Rate | 0.02 0-1 | 1.6 |
Earthquake Risk | 0.10 0-10 | 1.0 |
Tsunami Risk | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Tree Cover Loss | 0.00 hectares | 0.0 |
Water Stress | 1.88 % | 0.0 |
Water Dependency Ratio | 0.00 0-1 | 0.0 |
Labor Participation | 23.6 % (15+) | 100.0 |
Hospital Beds | 2.89 per 1,000 | 78.6 |
Safe Drinking Water | 36.3 % population | 67.9 |
Sanitation Access | 34.0 % population | 67.8 |
Unmet Contraception Need | 27.1 % | 66.6 |
Food Security | 6.40 0-10 | 64.0 |
Aid Dependency | 6.20 0-10 | 62.0 |
Development and Deprivation | 5.80 0-10 | 58.0 |
Net Migration | -592 persons | 55.0 |
Fertility Rate | 3.64 births per woman | 54.0 |
GDP Growth | 0.37 % annual | 52.9 |
Life Expectancy | 69.7 years | 52.2 |
Communicable Disease Deaths | 31.0 % | 46.4 |
Internet Users | 61.5 % population | 43.3 |
Overweight Adults | 42.6 % adults | 39.9 |
ESG Performance Score | 2.15 0-100 | 34.3 |
Primary School Enrollment | 106 % gross | 32.0 |
Education Expenditure | 18.3 % of govt | 29.2 |
Undernourishment | 16.4 % population | 28.5 |
Unemployment Rate | 9.07 % | 25.6 |
Access to Electricity | 81.3 % population | 19.8 |
Health Conditions | 1.90 0-10 | 19.0 |
Children Under 5 | 1.10 0-10 | 11.0 |
Under-5 Mortality Rate | 13.9 per 1,000 | 11.0 |
Gender Labor Ratio | 96.0 ratio F/M | 8.8 |
Adult Literacy Rate | 93.8 % | 8.6 |
Aging Population | 3.87 % population | 6.6 |
Population Density | 236 people/km2 | 1.3 |
Recent Shocks | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Uprooted People | 0.00 0-10 | 0.0 |
Legal Rights Strength | 0.00 0-12 | 100.0 |
Scientific Articles | 3.80 count | 100.0 |
Women in Parliament | 14.5 % seats | 76.3 |
Regulatory Quality | -0.94 -2.5 to +2.5 | 68.8 |
Government Effectiveness | -0.90 -2.5 to +2.5 | 68.0 |
Rule of Law | -0.69 -2.5 to +2.5 | 63.9 |
INFORM Governance Index | 6.00 0-10 | 60.0 |
Healthcare Access | 5.20 0-10 | 52.0 |
Physical Infrastructure | 4.50 0-10 | 45.0 |
Voice and Accountability | 0.25 -2.5 to +2.5 | 45.0 |
Control of Corruption | 0.36 -2.5 to +2.5 | 42.8 |
Political Stability | 0.44 -2.5 to +2.5 | 41.2 |
Communication Infrastructure | 3.70 0-10 | 37.0 |
Education (Readiness) | 0.10 0-1 | 90.1 |
Doing Business Score | 0.29 0-1 | 71.3 |
Rule of Law (Readiness) | 0.32 0-1 | 68.2 |
Regulatory Quality (Readiness) | 0.37 0-1 | 62.8 |
ICT Infrastructure | 0.42 0-1 | 57.6 |
Control of Corruption (Readiness) | 0.51 0-1 | 49.2 |
Social Inequality (Readiness) | 0.56 0-1 | 44.0 |
Political Stability (Readiness) | 0.65 0-1 | 35.4 |
These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.
Score a site in São Tomé and Principe →But what about your location?
The country score is an average. Get the full risk breakdown for one address or point inside São Tomé and Principe.
Where exactly?
Type an address, city, or landmark and we resolve it to a precise risk profile for that point.
Common questions
Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.
How risky is São Tomé and Principe?
São Tomé and Principe: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure. Its overall risk score is 44 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives São Tomé and Principe's risk?
São Tomé and Principe's highest pressures are governance (73, high) and adaptation (63). Its strongest area is climate (19).
How might São Tomé and Principe's climate change by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), about 58% of São Tomé and Principe's land shifts toward a warmer climate zone by 2080, lifting its climate-hazard pressure index from 76 to 76 out of 100. This Koppen-based outlook is a separate, forward-looking measure from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will São Tomé and Principe warm by 2080?
Under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), São Tomé and Principe is on track to warm by +2.5 °C by 2080, with annual precipitation changing by +602 mm; under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5) the warming is about +1.9 °C. Based on CMIP6 multi-model projections against a 1970-2000 baseline.
How much will sea levels rise along São Tomé and Principe's coast?
Coastal sea level along São Tomé and Principe is projected to rise by +0.89 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.64 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will water stress change in São Tomé and Principe?
The share of São Tomé and Principe under high water stress is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in São Tomé and Principe?
The share of São Tomé and Principe exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was São Tomé and Principe's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.