What drives Kiribati's risk?

Kiribati's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and adaptation (55). Its strongest area is climate (20).

How might Kiribati's climate change by 2080?

Kiribati's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.

How much will sea levels rise along Kiribati's coast?

Coastal sea level along Kiribati is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.

How will river-flood exposure change in Kiribati?

The share of Kiribati exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.

When was Kiribati's risk data last updated?

Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.

Kiribati Climate risk profile and hazard map

Region: Oceania
Subregion: Micronesia
Income: Lower middle income
ISO: KIR

Kiribati: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently.

Live events

Hourly disaster feed, shown alongside the standing risk below. Open the live map

How risky is Kiribati, overall?

The composite and its five dimensions. Higher means more risk.

Medium 45 / 100

20 Climate Low
47 Nature -2.5 Medium
40 Social Medium
65 Governance High
55 Adaptation -3.9 Medium

Which hazards threaten Kiribati most?

Physical hazard intensity. INFORM Risk Index, 0 to 10.

0.0FloodVery low
4.1DRR capacityMedium

Kiribati in global context

Risk-ranked against its cohorts. Click any country to open its page.

Micronesia

#3 of 5 · median 45

Oceania

#9 of 14 · median 43

Lower middle income

#14 of 53 · median 49

Put two countries head to head

Compare with any neighbour on all risks and their 5-year trajectory.

Compare Score a site here

Kiribati: outlook from 2050 to 2100

Projected physical change under a moderate (SSP2-4.5) and a high (SSP5-8.5) emissions pathway.

River flooding

20502080

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: 0% → 0%
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: 0% → 0%

Land exposed to a 100-year river flood; 0% today.

Sea level

Kiribati: under high emissions, a 100-year coastal flood in 2080 could reach 1 of its largest cities.

Tarawa, Max depth 2 mFlood depth3 mOpen the live map© OpenStreetMap

Coastal sea-level rise

20502100

Higher emissions SSP5-8.5: +0.24 m → +0.79 m
Lower emissions SSP2-4.5: +0.21 m → +0.59 m

Largest exposed cities

PopulationMax depth

Max depth: the deepest water within 12 km of the city center in a 100-year coastal flood in 2080, under RCP8.5 with high-end sea-level rise (95th percentile), ignoring flood defenses and land subsidence. Source: WRI Aqueduct Floods.

Regional estimate for the country's coast (IPCC AR6 median), not the global average.

Projections from public CMIP6 (WorldClim 2.1, 5-model median, against a 1970-2000 baseline), WRI Aqueduct 4.0 and IPCC AR6 data. Monthly and bioclimatic aggregates, not daily-threshold indices. Forward-looking estimates, not a re-scored site risk.

Indicator panel

Every source-level indicator behind the dimensions above. Sort by score, value, or name.

		Year		vs world	vs region
Access to Clean Fuels	14.8 % population	2022	85.2	+75.0	+33.1
Renewable Electricity Share	16.4 % of total	2021	83.6	+8.5	-0.3
Cooling Degree Days	5333 degree days	2020	73.0	+21.2	+2.3
Land Surface Temperature	30.6 deg C change	2021	71.8	+7.1	+8.9
Drought Index (SPEI)	0.20 index	2021	59.8	+13.4	-7.0
Renewable Energy Share	41.9 % of total energy	2022	56.6	-11.8	-24.6
Energy Intensity	6.82 MJ/$2017 PPP GDP	2022	45.6	+26.4	+12.0
PM2.5 Air Pollution	11.3 ug/m3	2020	7.9	-11.3	-0.5
CO2 Emissions Per Capita	0.45 metric tons	2020	1.3	-6.4	-1.9
N2O Emissions Per Capita	0.04 kt CO2e per capita	2020	0.9	-6.1	-3.6
Flood Risk	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-52.0	0.0
Heat Index	0.00 index	2020	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Heating Degree Days	0.00 degree days	2020	0.0	-1.4	0.0
Coal Electricity Share	0.00 % of total	2021	0.0	0.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Projected Marine Biodiversity Loss	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+62.8	+12.5
Projected Sea Level Rise Impact	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+86.5	+12.2
Population Below 5m	1.00 0-1	2023	100.0	+85.3	0.0
Forest Area	1.46 % of land	2022	98.5	+32.2	+46.0
Projected Warm Period Change	0.98 0-1	2023	97.7	+30.0	+28.7
Agricultural Capacity	0.95 0-1	2023	95.5	+3.7	+2.4
Environmental Treaties Engagement	0.95 0-1	2023	95.1	+18.8	+9.5
Protected Areas	11.8 % of land	2023	88.1	-0.8	-11.6
Health Expenditure Per Capita	0.88 0-1	2023	87.9	+3.7	+2.8
Access to Reliable Drinking Water	0.87 0-1	2023	86.8	+66.4	+27.8
Projected Cereal Yield Change	0.78 0-1	2023	78.1	-8.4	-12.4
Tsunami Risk	7.70 0-10	2026	77.0	+66.0	+17.5
Access to Improved Sanitation	0.76 0-1	2023	76.1	+36.8	+18.4
Food Production Index	97.3 index	2022	75.3	+8.2	+2.9
Food Import Dependency	0.66 0-1	2023	66.1	+44.4	+30.4
Projected Vector Disease Change	0.66 0-1	2023	65.8	0.0	0.0
Agriculture GDP Share	27.8 % of GDP	2022	64.6	+48.0	+26.9
Age Dependency Ratio	0.62 0-1	2023	61.6	+8.9	+0.3
Urban Concentration	0.54 0-1	2023	54.5	-2.9	-0.5
Protected Biome Areas	0.53 0-1	2023	53.2	+12.2	+8.6
Dependency Ratio	0.52 0-1	2023	52.3	+45.5	-37.2
Agricultural Land	42.0 % of land	2022	49.4	+2.1	+27.5
Rural Population	0.46 0-1	2023	45.5	+2.9	+0.5
Projected Population Change	0.33 0-1	2023	33.1	+10.8	+13.0
Child Malnutrition	0.14 0-1	2023	14.5	+0.7	+0.8
Projected Flood Hazard Change	0.11 0-1	2023	11.0	-7.4	-18.7
Projected Climate-Related Deaths	0.09 0-1	2023	9.1	-21.2	0.0
Disaster Preparedness	0.07 0-1	2023	7.5	-22.5	-32.5
Electricity Access	0.04 0-1	2023	4.1	+4.1	+4.1
Earthquake Risk	0.10 0-10	2026	1.0	-34.0	-14.5
Threatened Mammal Species	2.00 count	2018	1.0	-4.2	-1.4
Forest Depletion	0.02 % of GNI	2021	0.1	0.0	-0.3
Tree Cover Loss	0.00 hectares	2021	0.0	-0.1	0.0
Natural Resource Depletion	0.02 % of GNI	2021	0.0	-2.1	-0.7
Water Dependency Ratio	0.00 0-1	2023	0.0	-6.9	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Health Conditions	10.0 0-10	2026	100.0	+92.0	+60.0
Safe Drinking Water	14.4 % population	2022	91.2	+69.7	+29.3
Overweight Adults	79.1 % adults	2022	85.9	+29.9	+9.7
Sanitation Access	24.8 % population	2022	77.3	+37.3	+18.6
Aid Dependency	7.10 0-10	2026	71.0	+46.0	+10.5
Life Expectancy	66.5 years	2023	62.4	+22.9	+5.8
Development and Deprivation	6.20 0-10	2026	62.0	+32.0	+20.5
Net Migration	-485 persons	2023	55.0	0.0	0.0
Education Expenditure	16.1 % of govt	2022	52.9	-12.0	-12.9
GDP Growth	2.65 % annual	2023	49.3	+0.4	-0.5
Under-5 Mortality Rate	55.1 per 1,000	2023	47.4	+35.2	+30.8
Primary School Enrollment	93.4 % gross	2023	45.3	+3.3	+6.5
Fertility Rate	3.15 births per woman	2023	44.8	+21.5	+0.6
Unmet Contraception Need	17.3 %	2019	35.6	0.0	-7.1
Poverty Rate (National)	21.9 % population	2019	34.2	+5.7	+4.8
Communicable Disease Deaths	21.6 %	2019	31.8	+15.7	+15.2
Children Under 5	2.80 0-10	2026	28.0	+17.0	+12.0
ESG Performance Score	2.31 0-100	2018	22.4	-2.6	-1.3
Gini Coefficient	27.8 0-100	2019	15.2	-18.3	-12.2
Internet Users	88.0 % population	2023	13.5	-7.4	-25.1
Food Security	1.00 0-10	2026	10.0	-8.0	0.0
Income Share Bottom 20%	9.50 %	2019	8.6	-30.0	-21.4
Aging Population	4.12 % population	2023	7.3	-9.1	-4.6
Access to Electricity	95.9 % population	2023	4.3	+4.3	+4.3
Adult Literacy Rate	98.0 %	2018	3.1	-8.3	0.0
Undernourishment	3.70 % population	2022	2.5	-3.3	-5.9
Population Density	161 people/km2	2022	0.9	+0.4	+0.6
Recent Shocks	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-1.0	-1.0
Uprooted People	0.00 0-10	2026	0.0	-59.0	0.0

		Year		vs world	vs region
Scientific Articles	2.03 count	2022	100.0	+0.1	0.0
Women in Parliament	6.67 % seats	2023	89.1	+30.9	+4.3
Legal Rights Strength	4.00 0-12	2019	66.7	+16.7	+50.0
INFORM Governance Index	5.90 0-10	2026	59.0	+3.0	+6.5
Regulatory Quality	-0.28 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	55.6	+2.9	+1.0
Government Effectiveness	-0.10 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	51.9	+0.2	+1.9
Healthcare Access	4.40 0-10	2026	44.0	+7.0	-1.0
Control of Corruption	0.41 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	41.8	-13.8	+2.8
Disaster Risk Reduction	4.10 0-10	2026	41.0	-0.5	-3.0
Rule of Law	0.59 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	38.2	-14.8	+0.6
Physical Infrastructure	3.70 0-10	2026	37.0	+7.0	+14.0
Voice and Accountability	1.09 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	28.2	-20.7	-0.8
Political Stability	1.10 -2.5 to +2.5	2023	28.0	-21.8	-0.4
Communication Infrastructure	2.30 0-10	2026	23.0	+3.0	-1.5

		Year		vs world	vs region
Doing Business Score	0.31 0-1	2023	69.3	+10.9	+8.5
Rule of Law (Readiness)	0.45 0-1	2023	55.1	+2.5	+1.0
ICT Infrastructure	0.47 0-1	2023	53.2	+5.5	-3.9
Control of Corruption (Readiness)	0.52 0-1	2023	48.0	-16.3	+3.1
Regulatory Quality (Readiness)	0.62 0-1	2023	37.6	-14.4	+0.6
Political Stability (Readiness)	0.76 0-1	2023	24.1	-19.0	-0.3

These indicators have site-level resolution. Score your exact location.

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But what about your location?

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Where exactly?

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Common questions

Answer-first, drawn from the same data above.

How risky is Kiribati?
Kiribati: mid-pack overall, with governance the main pressure, easing recently. Its overall risk score is 45 out of 100 (medium), blended from World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.
What drives Kiribati's risk?
Kiribati's highest pressures are governance (65, high) and adaptation (55). Its strongest area is climate (20).
How might Kiribati's climate change by 2080?
Kiribati's climate zones stay broadly stable through 2080 even under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5); its Koppen-based climate-hazard pressure index holds near 76 out of 100. This forward-looking outlook is separate from the historical ND-GAIN scores.
How much will sea levels rise along Kiribati's coast?
Coastal sea level along Kiribati is projected to rise by +0.79 m by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5), and by about +0.59 m under lower emissions (SSP2-4.5). Based on the regional median of IPCC AR6 projections.
How will river-flood exposure change in Kiribati?
The share of Kiribati exposed to river flooding is projected to move from 0% today to 0% by 2080 under a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Based on WRI Aqueduct riverine-flood projections.
When was Kiribati's risk data last updated?
Updated September 2026, drawing on World Bank, INFORM Risk Index and ND-GAIN Country Index.