Climate risk in São Paulo
São Paulo, Brazil · 18.8M people in the urban area
What threatens São Paulo most
- Water stress
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Brazil
São Paulo had 8 days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025.
Rio de Janeiro: 3 days.
São Paulo's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, São Paulo is projected to have the climate that Campinas (Brazil) has today.
+1.3°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.3°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1.1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-1%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, São Paulo would have the climate that Campinas (Brazil) has today.
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How close the match is: 1.0 σ to the climate of Campinas today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at São Paulo
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | São Paulo | Among large cities | In Brazil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 0 days | ||
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 48 days | Among large cities: above 34% | In Brazil: 19 of 22 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 34°C | Among large cities: above 29% | In Brazil: 8 of 22 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.5°C | Among large cities: above 19% | In Brazil: 7 of 22 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 8 days | Among large cities: above 45% | In Brazil: 14 of 22 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Water stress | Medium-High (20-40%) | Among large cities: above 43% | In Brazil: 2 of 22 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Brazil: 4 of 22 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.02 m/s² | Among large cities: above 3% | In Brazil: 15 of 22 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around São Paulo on the live map
See the tropical nights around São Paulo on the live map
48 days © OpenStreetMap Large cities near São Paulo
- Santos · Brazil
- Campinas · Brazil
- Curitiba · Brazil
- Rio de Janeiro · Brazil
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). São Paulo, Brazil: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/BRA/sao-paulo BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_BRA_sao_paulo_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {São Paulo, Brazil: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/BRA/sao-paulo},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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