Climate risk in Rio de Janeiro
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil · 11.7M people in the urban area
What threatens Rio de Janeiro most
- Drought
- Medium-High WRI Aqueduct
- Water stress
- Low-Medium WRI Aqueduct
- Earthquake
- Low GSHAP
Tsunamis and landslides are not rated for a single city here. Climate risk profile of Brazil
Rio de Janeiro had 226 days in 2025 when the night never cooled below 20 °C.
São Paulo: 48 days.
Rio de Janeiro's climate in the 2050s
2041-2060 compared with 1991-2020, moderate emissions
By the 2050s, Rio de Janeiro's climate will still be more like its own today than any other large city's. The nearest other is Santa Cruz de la Sierra (Bolivia).
Climate risk in Santa Cruz de la Sierra
+1.2°C
Mean temperature over the year
+1.1°C
Highest in the warmest month
+1°C
Lowest in the coldest month
-3%
Precipitation over the year
Under high emissions, Rio de Janeiro would stay nearest its own climate today.
Its own climate today is 1.4 σ away. How close the match is: 2.4 σ to the climate of Santa Cruz de la Sierra today, where under 2 is close and over 4 is no match (Mahony et al. 2017). 3 of 3 climate model runs name the same city. Seasonal temperature and rain are compared, not extremes, city heat or the sea.
Hazards at Rio de Janeiro
Read at the city's centre and compared with the Atlas's 630 large cities. Moderate emissions is the IPCC's scenario SSP2-4.5.
| Hazard | Rio de Janeiro | Among large cities | In Brazil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot days in 2025, over 35 °C | 1 day | Among large cities: above 38% | In Brazil: 5 of 22 |
| Tropical nights in 2025, over 20 °C | 226 days | Among large cities: above 78% | In Brazil: 13 of 22 |
| Hottest day of 2025 | 36.3°C | Among large cities: above 50% | In Brazil: 2 of 22 |
| Warming by 2050, moderate emissions | +1.4°C | Among large cities: above 12% | In Brazil: 11 of 22 |
| Days with 20 mm of rain or more in 2025 | 3 days | Among large cities: above 24% | In Brazil: 21 of 22 |
| River flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Coastal flood depth, 100-year event | Dry at the city centre point | ||
| Sea level rise by 2050, moderate emissions | 209 mm | Among large cities: above 49% | In Brazil: 9 of 14 |
| Water stress | Low-Medium (10-20%) | Among large cities: above 30% | In Brazil: 5 of 22 |
| Drought risk | Medium-High | Among large cities: above 13% | In Brazil: 4 of 22 |
| Earthquake shaking, once in 475 years | 0.01 m/s² | Among large cities: above 1% | In Brazil: 19 of 22 |
| Land burned in an average year | 0% | ||
| Cyclone wind, once in 100 years | 0 m/s |
Flood depth is read in a single 1 km cell at the city's centre, in today's climate. Other parts of the city can still flood. The country page names the deepest point near a coastal city in 2080, so its figure can be higher. See how deep a river flood reaches around Rio de Janeiro on the live map
See the hot days around Rio de Janeiro on the live map
1 day © OpenStreetMap Large cities near Rio de Janeiro
- Niterói · Brazil
- Santos · Brazil
- Belo Horizonte · Brazil
- São Paulo · Brazil
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In a line
Source: Criora (criora.com), based on ECMWF, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, WRI, IPCC, GSHAP, GFED500
APA
Criora. (2026). Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: climate risk profile [Data set]. Retrieved November 2, 2026, from https://criora.com/atlas/BRA/rio-de-janeiro BibTeX
@misc{criora_atlas_BRA_rio_de_janeiro_2026,
author = {{Criora}},
title = {Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: climate risk profile},
year = {2026},
url = {https://criora.com/atlas/BRA/rio-de-janeiro},
urldate = {2026-11-02}
} Each reading stays under its source's terms; the sources are named on this page.
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